[ { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/x8r6n-a3s32", "eprint_id": 87050, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 09:01:38", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 20:49:47", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "N\u00fa\u00f1ez-L", "name": { "family": "N\u00fa\u00f1ez", "given": "Lucas" } } ] }, "title": "A Taxonomy of Protest Voting", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "voting, elections, tactical voting, protest voting, strategic voting", "note": "\u00a9 2018 Annual Reviews. \n\nWe thank Andre Blais, Jacquez Cremer, Marta Cantijoch Cunill, Phil Hoffman, Michael Lewis-Beck, Gerhard Loewenberg, and Jean-Laurent Rosenthal for helpful advice. We also thank participants in the 2016 Annual Meeting of the Conference on Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties (University of Kent) and faculty and students at the University of Tampere for comments, criticisms, and suggestions. \n\nDisclosure Statement: The authors are not aware of any affiliations, memberships, funding, or financial holdings that might be perceived as affecting the objectivity of this review.", "abstract": "Observers of elections often report that voters have engaged in protest voting. We find that \"protest voting\" refers to a wide range of behaviors, and we create a taxonomy of these phenomena. Support for fringe or insurgent parties is often labeled as protest voting. Voting theorists have used the term in a completely different way, identifying an unusual type of tactical voting as protest voting. Protest voting also occurs when voters cast blank, null, or spoiled ballots. There are also instances when protest voting is organized and directed by political elites. Finally, several countries provide voters with the option of casting a vote for \"None of the Above,\" which some see as a form of protest voting. In addition to developing this taxonomy, we discuss the analytical and empirical challenges confronting research on each type of protest voting.", "date": "2018-05", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Annual Review of Political Science", "volume": "21", "publisher": "Annual Reviews", "pagerange": "135-154", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20180613-091037452", "issn": "1094-2939", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20180613-091037452", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1146/annurev-polisci-050517-120425", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2018", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Kiewiet, D. Roderick; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/mpe7q-njc46", "eprint_id": 83603, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 00:23:10", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 19:14:34", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Dubin-J-A", "name": { "family": "Dubin", "given": "Jeffrey A." } }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Noussair-C-N", "name": { "family": "Noussair", "given": "Charles N." } } ] }, "title": "Voting on Growth Control Measures: Preferences and Strategies", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the Western Political Science Association, March 20\u201323, 1991, Seattle, Washington. We would like to thank Peter Navarro for stimulating our interest in the subject, and Ken McCue for providing us with data. We also thank Bruce Cain, Andy Gelman, Elizabeth Gerber, Robert Gilmour, Eric Hughson, Mat McCubbins, Skip Lupia, Max Neiman, Thomas Romer, and especially Henry Brady for their comments. \n\nPublished Dubin, Jeffrey A. and Kiewiet, D. Roderick and Noussair, Charles N. (1992) Voting on Growth Control Measures: Preferences and Strategies. Economics and Politics, 4 (2). pp. 191-213.\n\n
Accepted Version - sswp777.pdf
", "abstract": "Citizens of many California cities and counties have sought to restrict the rate of population growth in their localities. In 1988, Citizens for Limited Growth used the initiative process to place a pair of growth control measures on the ballot in the City and County of San Diego, respectively. The City Council and Board of Supervisors responded by placing less stringent, competing measures on the same ballot. This paper analyzes voting data from this election to examine the nature of support for such measures. We find strong support for the hypotheses that whites, homeowners, liberal/environmentalists, and those exposed to high levels of traffic congestion are more likely to favor growth controls. This paper also investigates the behavior of voters when they confront competing propositions concerning the same issue on the same ballot, and finds strong evidence of strategic voting.", "date": "2017-11-30", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20171130-133925555", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20171130-133925555", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/mpe7q-njc46", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp777.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/mpe7q-njc46/files/sswp777.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Dubin, Jeffrey A.; Kiewiet, D. Roderick; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/pn35x-vmx66", "eprint_id": 82317, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 13:14:57", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:42:21", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Accounting for the Electoral Effects of Short Term Economic Fluctuations: The Role of Incumbency-Oriented and Policy-Oriented Voting", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "An earlier version of this paper was delivered at the Annual Meeting of the Public Choice Society, March 14-16, 1980, San Francisco, California.\n\nSubmitted - sswp319.pdf
", "abstract": "Several previous studies have found considerable evidence of incumbency-oriented voting, i.e. voting for or against the incumbent president and candidates of his party on the basis of fluctuations in economic conditions. This study explores the hypothesis that voting in response to economic conditions is often policy.", "date": "2017-10-12", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20171012-133810922", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20171012-133810922", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/pn35x-vmx66", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp319.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/pn35x-vmx66/files/sswp319.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/49g8d-kgk75", "eprint_id": 82217, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 14:16:13", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:41:18", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "The Effects of Personal Economic Problems upon Voting in American National Elections", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "An earlier version of this paper was delivered at the Annual Meeting of the Conference Group on the Political Economy of Advanced Industrial Societies, August 28-30, 1980, Washington, D.C.\n\nSubmitted - sswp348.pdf
", "abstract": "Several previous studies have concluded that individuals' personal economic conditions exert only weak, intermittent effects upon their voting decisions. These studies, however, have all used the same measure to test the same basic hypothesis\u2014that economic adversity of any kind leads to voting against the incumbent President and candidates of his party. This study uses answers to a battery of open-ended questions included in the 1972-1976 CPS National Election Studies to develop new and more detailed indicators of personally experienced economic problems. These data are then used to test an alternative, policy-oriented hypothesis that personal difficulties resulting from inflation lead voters to give greater support to the Republicans, while voters personally injured by unemployment give greater support to the Democrats. In analyzing these new measures this study repeatedly found important differences between inflation and unemployment. First, unemployment inflicts substantial objective economic costs while the major costs of inflation, at least in the short run, are the more intangible psychological costs of coping with more uncertainty. Secondly, the costs of unemployment are heavily concentrated among certain sectors of the labor force, while the costs of inflation are borne roughly equally by all major groups in society. Thirdly, inflation and unemployment differ markedly in their political ramifications. Only a small percentage of individuals cited unemployment, but they tended to perceive the Democrats to be better at dealing with unemployment, and gave relatively greater support to Democratic candidates. In contrast, during the period studied a large percentage of the citizenry cited inflation as their most serious economic problem. But these voters did not give a significant edge to either party as better able to handle inflation, nor did their concern over inflation systematically affect their choices in presidential and congressional elections.", "date": "2017-10-09", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20171009-132603637", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20171009-132603637", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/49g8d-kgk75", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp348.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/49g8d-kgk75/files/sswp348.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/54trc-jax59", "eprint_id": 81865, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 15:12:07", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:38:15", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "McCubbins-M-D", "name": { "family": "McCubbins", "given": "Mathew D." } } ] }, "title": "In the Mood: The Effect of Election Year Considerations Upon the Appropriations Process", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "An earlier version of this paper was delivered at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Cincinnati, Ohio, April 15-18, 1981.\n\nSubmitted - sswp429.pdf
", "abstract": "The analyses undertaken in this study generate evidence supportive of the hypothesis that Congress treats the budgets of agencies which supply particularistic, constituency-oriented benefits more favorably in election years than non-election years. There appears not to be any greater election year generosity on the part of Congress with regard to those agencies which perform primarily universalistic services. The data also show that congressional appropriations decisions regarding the constituency-oriented agencies are also influenced much more strongly by the level of unemployment in the economy and by the balance of party power in the federal government. It must be stressed, though, that the impact of congressional election year appropriations process is quite limited. This is because over all changes in agency appropriations are much more a function of the budget estimates submitted to Congress by OMB than of what Congress does to these estimates. And given that there were no important differences evident in OMB behavior between election years and non-election years, overall trends in actual appropriations were not much affected by election year considerations either.", "date": "2017-10-04", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170926-165802196", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170926-165802196", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/54trc-jax59", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp429.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/54trc-jax59/files/sswp429.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and McCubbins, Mathew D." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/mgp1e-m4z13", "eprint_id": 81969, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 15:12:15", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:38:41", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "The Rationality of Candidates who Challenge Incumbents in Congressional Elections", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Submitted - sswp436.pdf
", "abstract": "Making use of the numerous resources available to them, incumbent congressmen have come to enjoy very high rates of success in getting reelected. Typically, however, incumbents are challenged by relatively weak, unknown candidates, while potentially much stronger candidates are deterred. So why do these weak candidates engage in such apparently foolish behavior?\nPrevious research has suggested several answers to this question. It is commonly argued that weak, inexperienced candidates either misperceive the odds against them, or that they are actually using a congressional campaign to pursue nonpolitical goals or political goals other than winning office. Others point out that weak candidates may be induced to run by a low probability of victory because their political opportunity costs are low or because a stronger than expected showing may serve as an investment in future campaigns. This paper argues, however, that there is a much simpler and direct reason why weak candidates choose to run against incumbents, and that is that they do so so as to maximize their probability of being elected to Congress.", "date": "2017-10-04", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20171002-151046141", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20171002-151046141", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/mgp1e-m4z13", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp436.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/mgp1e-m4z13/files/sswp436.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/qcwxe-tfn79", "eprint_id": 81705, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 16:12:30", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:32:02", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Cain-B-E", "name": { "family": "Cain", "given": "Bruce E." } }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Ethnicity and Electoral Choice: Mexican-American Voting Behavior in the California 30th Congressional District", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Published as Bruce, E. Cain, and D. Roderick Kiewiet. \"Ethnicity and electoral choice: Mexican American voting behavior in the California 30th Congressional district.\" Social Science Quarterly 65.2 (1984): 315.\n\nSubmitted - sswp492.pdf
", "abstract": "The 1982 election in California offers a unique natural experiment in ethnic and racial block voting. The race in the 30th Congressional District matched a well-financed Anglo Republican, John Rousselot, against an incumbent Hispanic, Marty Martinez, in a predominantly Hispanic seat. On the ballot with Martinez and Rousselot were the successful Republican candidates for Governor and the U. S. Senate, George Deukmejian and Pete Wilson, and the losing Democratic candidates, Tom Bradley (who is Black) and Jerry Brown. These variations in the race and ethnicity of the candidates on the ballot in 1982 can be used to estimate the impact of ethnic and racial consideration in voting decisions. The data for this study were gathered in two surveys of the 30th Congressional District of California. The first was a telephone survey of 455 respondents administered during the third week of October, 1982. The second was a poll of 409 voters as they left the voting booth on election day.", "date": "2017-09-21", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170921-150226745", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170921-150226745", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/qcwxe-tfn79", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp492.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/qcwxe-tfn79/files/sswp492.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Cain, Bruce E. and Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ka0z7-36045", "eprint_id": 81593, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 16:57:57", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:30:51", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Rivers-D", "name": { "family": "Rivers", "given": "Douglas" } } ] }, "title": "A Retrospective on Retrospective Voting", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Voting, Incumbents, Real income, Economic conditions, Time series, Political parties, Political science, Income estimates, Presidential elections, Political candidates", "note": "Though we alone bear responsibility for the contents of this paper, we have benefitted from conversations over the past few years on this topic with Morris Fiorina, Douglas Hibbs, Donald Kinder, and Gerald Kramer. The National Science Foundation provided research support under grant SES-8309994. \n\nPublished as Kiewiet, D. Roderick, and Douglas Rivers. \"A retrospective on retrospective voting.\" Political behavior 6.4 (1984): 369-393.\n\nSubmitted - sswp528.pdf
", "abstract": "This paper critically reviews the extensive literature on retrospective voting in response to economic conditions. Each of the major types of analyses which have been performed\u2014time series analyses of national vote totals, presidential popularity, and cross-sectional analyses of individual survey responses\u2014have raised several interesting and important questions. The answers which have been obtained, however, are only partial and limited, as each of these approaches entails serious problems of estimation and interpretation. Further progress in this area, we argue, requires explicit treatment of conceptual and statistical issues which have hindered previous research: the dynamic formulation of expectations and preferences, the incidence of policy (and nonpolicy) effects across the population, notions of incumbering and political responsibility.", "date": "2017-09-19", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170919-155239224", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170919-155239224", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SES-8309994" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/ka0z7-36045", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp528.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ka0z7-36045/files/sswp528.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and Rivers, Douglas" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/swsdw-7qr45", "eprint_id": 81428, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 18:24:38", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:28:26", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "McCubbins-M-D", "name": { "family": "McCubbins", "given": "Mathew D." } } ] }, "title": "Presidential Influence on Congressional Appropriations Decisions", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Budget appropriations, Government spending, Funding, Veto, Appropriations legislation, Credible threats, Congressional resolutions, Federal budgets, Statistical estimation", "note": "We thank Roger Noll, John Padgett, John Ferejohn, Thomas Schwartz, John Ledyard, Keith Krehbiel, Thomas Gilligan, and Barry Weingast for comments and criticisms. Jeff Dubin provided valuable econometric advice. We also thank David Lowery and Samuel Bookheimer for providing us with their budgetary data, and Eric Claus, David Fallek, and Marla Davison for research assistance. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1984 meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under grant SES-8421161. \n\nPublished as Kiewiet, D. Roderick, and Mathew D. McCubbins. \"Presidential influence on congressional appropriations decisions.\" American Journal of Political Science (1988): 713-736.\n\nSubmitted - sswp601.pdf
", "abstract": "We investigate the extent to which possession of the veto allows the president to influence congressional decisions regarding regular annual appropriations legislation. The most important implication of our analysis is that the influence the veto conveys is asymmetrical: it allows the president to restrain Congress when he prefers to appropriate less to an agency than they do; it does not provide him an effective means of extracting higher appropriations from Congress when he prefers to spend more than they do. This asymmetry derives from Constitutional limitations on the veto, the sequencing of the appropriations process provided by the Budget and Accounting Act of 1920, and the presence of a de facto reversionary expenditure level contained in continuing resolutions (Fanno, 1966). We find strong support for this proposition in a regression of presidential requests upon congressional appropriations decisions.", "date": "2017-09-15", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170913-161141071", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170913-161141071", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SES-8421161" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/swsdw-7qr45", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp601.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/swsdw-7qr45/files/sswp601.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and McCubbins, Mathew D." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/txf9e-ekq40", "eprint_id": 81275, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 19:37:16", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:26:53", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Uhlaner-C-J", "name": { "family": "Ulhaner", "given": "Carol J." } }, { "id": "Cain-B-E", "name": { "family": "Cain", "given": "Bruce E." } }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Political Participation of Ethnic Minorities in the 1980s", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Hispanics, Voter registration, Ethnicity, Ethnic groups, White people, Socioeconomics, Demography, Political science, Variable coefficients, Ethnic identity", "note": "This paper was prepared for delivery at the Annual Meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology, San Francis co, California, July 4-7, 1987. The project was funded by a grant from the Seaver Institute. We thank Amita Shastri and Chris Gallant for their assistance in the research. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1987 Annual Meeting of the Western Political Science Association, Anaheim, California. We would like to thank the discussants and also the participants in the Southern California Political Behavior Seminar and the Harvard American Politics Seminar for their comments.\n\nSubmitted - sswp647.pdf
", "abstract": "Currently political participation, especially voter registration and\nturnout, varies substantially with ethnicity. Blacks and non-Hispanic whites\nparticipate at roughly equal rates, while Latinos and Asian-Americans are\nsubstantially less active, this variation may reflect cultural factors, or\nit may be the spurious product of differences in the distribution of\nnon-ethnic determinants of participation, including socioeconomic and\ndemographic characteristics, variables reflecting immigration history,\nincluding citizenship, and measures of group identification. Using data\ncollected in 1984 on samples of California's black, Latino, Asian-American,\nand non-Hispanic white populations, we conclude that these other variables\nfully account for lower Latino participation rates. Even with such controls,\nhowever, Asian-Americans remain less likely to vote. Although non-citizens\nparticipate less than citizens, they do engage in non-electoral activities,\nFinally, we speculate on the future political impact of Latinos and\nAsian-Americans, by projecting participation rates under several scenarios.", "date": "2017-09-11", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170908-154322007", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170908-154322007", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Seaver Institute" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/txf9e-ekq40", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp647.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/txf9e-ekq40/files/sswp647.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Ulhaner, Carol J.; Cain, Bruce E.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/crm4y-keb84", "eprint_id": 57105, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 05:13:19", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 17:04:25", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Hill-Sarah-A", "name": { "family": "Hill", "given": "Sarah A." } }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "The Impact of State Supreme Court Decisions on Public School Finance", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 2014 The Author. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Yale University.\n\nAdvance Access published February 17, 2014.\n\nAn earlier version of this article was presented at the 2011 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association in Seattle, Washington. We would like to thank Mike Alvarez, David Grether, Philip Hoffman, Jonathan Katz, Terry Moe, Peter Ordeshook, Douglas Reed, Michiko Ueda, Sara Elizabeth Dahill-Brown, Michael Hartney, Ryane McAuliffe Straus, Christina Wolbrecht, and the anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank Alicia Fernandez and Matthew Kiewiet for research assistance.", "abstract": "Beginning with Serrano v. Priest in 1971, equity-based decisions issued by state supreme courts led to a decrease in cross-district inequality in per pupil expenditures. In subsequent years, more state supreme courts overturned existing systems of public school finance for failing to provide adequate education to students living in poor school districts. Adequacy-based decisions have not produced measurable changes in cross-district inequality in expenditures, but have led to higher overall levels of funding for public education. The nationwide increase in per pupil expenditures over the past several decades is, however, largely the product of growth in personal incomes and a decline in the relative size of the cohort of school-age children, and not of court-ordered finance reforms. In California, after Serrano and the most far-reaching equalization reforms implemented anywhere in the country, the association between the wealth of a school district and educational quality remains strong and persistent. If one's concern is the quality of education that students receive and not the amount of money spent on them, the victories that reformers have won in the courts have been hollow victories.", "date": "2015-03", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization", "volume": "31", "number": "1", "publisher": "Oxford University Press", "pagerange": "61-92", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20150430-085319789", "issn": "8756-6222", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20150430-085319789", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1093/jleo/ewu001", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2015", "author_list": "Hill, Sarah A. and Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/b5a8p-t2352", "eprint_id": 53761, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 04:20:09", "lastmod": "2023-10-19 22:11:31", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Tim Groseclose, Cheating: an insider's report on the use of race in admissions at UCLA [Book Review]", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York. \n\nPublished online: 6 November 2014. \n\nBook review of: Tim Groseclose, Cheating: an insider's report on the use of race in admissions at UCLA. Dog Ear Publishing, Indianapolis, IN, 2014, 212 p. ISBN: 978-1457528293.", "abstract": "Cheating:an insider's report on the use of race in admissions at UCLA, is Tim Groseclose's provocative narrative of how affirmative action policies have played out at a major public university. Groseclose chronicles the efforts of UCLA admissions officers to satisfy two contradictory demands. The first was to produce a student body with a significantly larger number of African-Americans. In May 2006, demonstrators had gathered outside Chancellor Carnesale's office to express concern over the declining number of African-American students at UCLA. A few months later Acting Chancellor Norm Abrams addressed the Committee on Undergraduate Admissions and Relations with Schools (CUARS), of which Groseclose was a member. Abrams asked the committee to change its procedures in order to increase the admissions rate for underrepresented minority students. Specifically, he indicated that they should adopt the \"holistic\" process that Berkeley was using, and that they should do so quickly.", "date": "2015-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Public Choice", "volume": "162", "number": "1", "publisher": "Springer", "pagerange": "205-209", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20150115-094501600", "issn": "0048-5829", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20150115-094501600", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1007/s11127-014-0209-8", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2015", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/76d6e-amk65", "eprint_id": 49573, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 00:49:08", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:33:45", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "McCubbins-M-D", "name": { "family": "McCubbins", "given": "Mathew D." } } ] }, "title": "State and Local Government Finance: The New Fiscal Ice Age", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "population aging, Medicaid, public employee retirement benefits, municipal bankruptcy", "note": "\u00a9 2014 Annual Reviews.\n\nFirst published online as a Review in Advance on January 15, 2014.\n\nWe thank Pete Peterson, Ross Selvidge, and Bob Taylor for their assistance.", "abstract": "The Great Recession that began in late 2007 had devastating consequences\nfor the fiscal health of state and local governments, and many remain in a\nprecarious financial position. Several cities have declared bankruptcy, and\nmore will do so in coming years. The future, however, promises no long-term\nrelief. Due primarily to the aging population of the United States, state\nand local governments are allocating large and increasing shares of their\nbudgets to expenditures on Medicaid and on retirement benefits that they\nhave promised to their past and current employees. As these expenditures\nconsume more of their budgets, there is less to spend on transportation,\nparks and recreation, education, public safety, and all the other services that\nthese governments provide. We are thus experiencing the onset of a New\nFiscal Ice Age, a period in which a given level of tax revenue purchases a\nconsiderably lower level of current services.", "date": "2014-05", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Annual Review of Political Science", "volume": "17", "publisher": "Annual Reviews", "pagerange": "105-122", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20140911-084534344", "issn": "1094-2939", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20140911-084534344", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1146/annurev-polisci-100711-135250", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2014", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and McCubbins, Mathew D." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/h4ps9-r3v54", "eprint_id": 41654, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 10:11:54", "lastmod": "2023-10-24 23:54:27", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Lewis-Beck-M-S", "name": { "family": "Lewis-Beck", "given": "Michael S." } }, { "id": "Martini-N-F", "name": { "family": "Martini", "given": "Nicholas F." } }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "The nature of economic perceptions in mass publics", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "Economics and elections; Kramer problem; Economic voting; Endogeneity and the economy", "note": "\u00a9 2013 Elsevier Ltd.\n\nReceived 2 May 2013;\nAccepted 4 May 2013.", "abstract": "Voters who believe that the nation's economy has been worsening are more inclined to vote against the incumbent president than are those who believe it has not been getting worse. This relationship could be present because voters condition their support for the incumbents upon their perceptions of the economy, or, alternatively, because they condition their perceptions of the economy upon their underlying, partisan-based support of the incumbents.\n\nIf the latter, economic perceptions in mass publics would be more a function of partisan rationalization than of the actual performance of the economy. However, the analyses reported here, based upon a pooled sample of respondents interviewed by the American National Election Studies between 1968 and 2008, provide strong evidence of the former scenario, not the latter. Perceptions of economic trends clearly and accurately track actual changes in GDP and unemployment. Bias due to partisanship is minor.", "date": "2013-09", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Electoral Studies", "volume": "32", "number": "3", "publisher": "Elsevier", "pagerange": "524-528", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20131003-102101032", "issn": "0261-3794", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20131003-102101032", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1016/j.electstud.2013.05.026", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2013", "author_list": "Lewis-Beck, Michael S.; Martini, Nicholas F.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/y0k2h-ehj70", "eprint_id": 64518, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 14:05:27", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:28:05", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "The Ecology of Tactical Voting in Britain", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 2013 Elections, Public Opinion & Parties.\n\nI would like to thank Mike Alvarez, Steven Ansolabehere, Anthony Fowler, Stephen Fisher, Tim Groseclose, Leslie Johns, Jonathan Katz, Ines Levin, Jerry Loewenberg, Neil Malhotra, Tom Palfrey, Julian Romero, Cameron Shelton, Tom Schwartz, David Sears, Erik Snowberg, Langche Zeng, as well as the editor and referees of this journal for their assistance and advice. I am also indebted to Stephen Fisher, Pippa Norris, Charles Pattie and Colin Rallings for generously providing me with data, and to Kay Sumpner in the UK Office for National Statistics for her assistance in helping me obtain additional census data.", "abstract": "Analyses of both aggregate-level constituency data and individual-level survey data from the 1983\u20132005 British General Elections indicate that when available information clearly signals which parties in a constituency are viable and which are not, supporters of nonviable parties vote tactically. Alliance/Liberal Democrat tactical voters tend to split their votes between Labour and the Conservatives, so the major parties derive limited net benefit from them. When Labour faces a dismal outlook in a constituency many of its supporters also vote tactically, and those that do overwhelmingly cast their votes for the Alliance/Liberal Democrats. Strong tactical support received from Labour voters has furnished the margin of victory in as many as a fifth of the contests that the Alliance/Liberal Democrats have won. A party that has repeatedly seen Duverger's mechanical\" factor reduce the sizable share of votes it wins nationally to a far smaller share of seats thus turns out to be the biggest beneficiary of tactical voting.", "date": "2013", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties", "volume": "23", "number": "1", "publisher": "Taylor and Francis", "pagerange": "86-110", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160216-153829414", "issn": "1745-7289", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160216-153829414", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.1080/17457289.2012.755536", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2013", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/8bnq5-aw185", "eprint_id": 64664, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 05:01:47", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:35:18", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Lewis-Beck-M-S", "name": { "family": "Lewis-Beck", "given": "Michael S." } } ] }, "title": "No Man is an Island: Self-Interest, the Public Interest, and Sociotropic Voting", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2011 Critical Review Foundation.", "abstract": "Four decades ago, Gerald Kramer showed that economic conditions affect electoral outcomes. Some researchers took this to mean that voters were self-interested, voting their \"pocketbooks,\" while others, such as Leif Lewin, took it to mean that voters were sociotropic, motivated by the public interest\u2014and therefore altruistic. It is important, however, to avoid conflating sociotropic voters with altruistic ones. Voters might be voting in favor of politicians or parties that they think will further the public interest as an indirect route to furthering their own interests, as members of the public. More research, perhaps conducted using novel methodologies, is needed in order to settle the extent to which voters are motivated by self-interest or by the public interest.", "date": "2011", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Critical Review", "volume": "23", "number": "3", "publisher": "Critical Review Foundation", "pagerange": "303-319", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-155528326", "issn": "0891-3811", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-155528326", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1080/08913811.2011.635868", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2011", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and Lewis-Beck, Michael S." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/s1e90-pcr32", "eprint_id": 64519, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 01:10:31", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:28:07", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "The Day After Tomorrow: Managing the Retrenchment of Public Employee Retirement Systems", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "public employee pensions, pension funding, defined benefit pension plans, pension obligation bonds", "note": "Local Identifier: 1944-4370.1115.\n\nI would like to thank Mike Aguirre, Steve Erie, Craig Herron, Phil Hoffman, Vladimir Kogan, Thad Kousser, John Ledyard, Mat McCubbins, Amy Monahan, Robert Rasmussen, Matt Spitzer, and especially Roger Noll for helpful advice and comments.\n\nPublished - the_day_after_tomorrow.pdf
", "abstract": "The Pew Center estimates that as of July 2008, state and local governments in the United States had promised current and future retirees $3.34 trillion in benefits but had only $2.35 trillion of projected assets to pay for them. The investment losses that public employee pension funds experienced during the market downturn of 2008-09 made the trillion dollar gap much larger. In this paper I discuss how the pension funding gap has developed, compare the situation in California with that of other states, and discuss the ways in which the state government and local governments in California are responding to the increasing strains pension obligations place on their finances. I recommend that the constitution of California be amended to forbid the state and all local governments from ever again issuing pension obligation bonds, and to forbid the state of California, as well as all local governments within the state, from ever again offering their employees defined benefit pension plans.", "date": "2010", "date_type": "published", "publication": "California Journal of Politics and Policy", "volume": "2", "number": "3", "publisher": "Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California-Berkeley", "pagerange": "1-30", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160216-155216827", "issn": "1944-4370", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160216-155216827", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "collection": "CaltechAUTHORS", "doi": "10.5070/P2630X", "primary_object": { "basename": "the_day_after_tomorrow.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/s1e90-pcr32/files/the_day_after_tomorrow.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2010", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/sdjv3-5q961", "eprint_id": 64521, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 01:22:39", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:28:12", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Rationality and Rationalistic Choice in the California Recall", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 Cambridge University Press 2009. \n\nPublished online: 17 February 2009. \n\nThe authors wish to thank Ralph Adolphs, Stephen Ansolabehere, Peter Boessarts, Bruce Cain, Jack Citrin, John Ellwood, Diana Evans, Alan Gerber, Donald Green, David Grether, Tim Groseclose, Phil Hoffman, Sam Kernell, Thad Kousser, John Lapinski, John Ledyard, Andrea Mattozzi, David Mayhew, Rebecca Morton, Jonathan Nagler, Peter Ordeshook, Tom Palfrey, Charles Plott, Julian Romero, Nasos Roussias, Robert Sherman, Betsy Sinclair and Matt Spitzer for comments and suggestions, and also the seminar participants at the University of Michigan, University of Southern California, University of California-San Diego, Princeton University and Yale University, as well as the JournaI's anonymous reviewers for helpful comments. They also gratefully acknowledge the California Institute of Technology for its financial support of this research.\n\nSubmitted - AlvarezBJPS2009.pdf
", "abstract": "The California recall election of 2003 provides an excellent setting for investigating voter rationality and certain forms of sophisticated voting. In a pre-election telephone survey, 1,500 registered voters were asked to make pairwise comparisons between the major candidates, and their responses were combined to infer preferences. Individuals' preference orderings over the major candidates rarely exhibited intransitivity. The patterns of tactical voting observed in the replacement part of the recall election were consistent with the declining rate hypothesis. Voters also engaged in 'hedge voting' on the recall question itself. The results suggest that voters' decisions are 'rationalistic': while voters are consistent in forming utility-based preference rankings and choosing on that basis, their voting strategies do not incorporate probability assessments in a realistic, consistent fashion, if at all.", "date": "2009-04", "date_type": "published", "publication": "British Journal of Political Science", "volume": "39", "number": "2", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "267-290", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160216-161833984", "issn": "0007-1234", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160216-161833984", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Caltech" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.1017/S0007123408000586", "primary_object": { "basename": "AlvarezBJPS2009.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/sdjv3-5q961/files/AlvarezBJPS2009.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2009", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/031gh-msx45", "eprint_id": 13672, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 23:33:42", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 00:04:07", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Mattozzi-Andrea", "name": { "family": "Mattozzi", "given": "Andrea" } } ] }, "title": "Voter rationality and democratic government", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 2008 Critical Review Foundation", "abstract": "From a 1996 survey comparing the views of economists and ordinary voters, Bryan Caplan deduces several biases\u2014anti-market, anti-foreign, pessimistic, and makework biases\u2014to support his thesis that voters are rationally irrational, i.e., that, aware of the inconsequentiality of their votes, they rationally indulge their \"preferences\" for public policies that have harmful results. Yet if the standard of comparison is the public's opposition to harmful policies, rather than the level of its opposition relative to that of economists, the \"biases\" disappear. In absolute terms, voters support free trade and are against protectionism, such that free-trade agreements are more prevalent among democratic, rather than autocratic, regimes. Finally, the protectionist policies that are adopted in this country are the product of interest-group politics, not of voters' wrongheaded policy preferences.", "date": "2008-09", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Critical Review", "volume": "20", "number": "3", "publisher": "Critical Review Foundation", "pagerange": "313-326", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:KIEcr08", "issn": "0891-3811", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:KIEcr08", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1080/08913810802503475", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2008", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and Mattozzi, Andrea" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/k3prj-dd268", "eprint_id": 64666, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 21:52:26", "lastmod": "2024-01-13 16:41:13", "type": "book_section", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Hall-T-E", "name": { "family": "Hall", "given": "Thad E." } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Katz-J-N", "name": { "family": "Katz", "given": "Jonathan N." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-5287-3503" } ] }, "title": "Fraud or Failure? What Incident Reports Reveal about Election Anomalies and Irregularities", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "abstract": "When things go wrong in elections involving direct-recording electronic (DRE) voting technology, these episodes are viewed by many as proof of the vulnerability, or at least the unreliability, of these systems. Claims by election officials that such problems are \"par for the course\" in elections or symptomatic of \"growing pains\" associated with implementing a new technology ring false to many Americans who expect elections to be run without error every time. To date, however, each side in the debate has been able to rely on only limited data and scant research. DRE technology has only recently been introduced on a large scale in the United States, so there is little systematic information regarding the difficulties encountered in its implementation. \n\nIn this chapter, we examine a novel and potentially very useful source of data concerning the frequency and severity of different types of problems encountered by voters and precinct workers in a DRE environment. The data consist of incident reports collected by poll workers during the May 2, 2006, primary election in Cuyahoga County, Ohio. This election marked the first use of DRE technology in this jurisdiction. Voters cast their ballots on Diebold Accuvote-TSx voting machines -- touch-screen machines equipped with printers to produce the voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) mandated by Ohio election law. Since most voters were unfamiliar with the technology, the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections took the prudent and useful measure of providing poll workers at each precinct with incident report forms to record and to describe difficulties they encountered in conducting the balloting.", "date": "2008", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "Brookings Institution", "place_of_pub": "Washington DC", "pagerange": "112-129", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-160838091", "isbn": "9780815701385", "book_title": "Election Fraud: Detecting and Deterring Electoral Manipulation", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-160838091", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "contributors": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" } }, { "id": "Hall-T-E", "name": { "family": "Hall", "given": "Thad E." } }, { "id": "Hyde-S-D", "name": { "family": "Hyde", "given": "Susan D." } } ] }, "resource_type": "book_section", "pub_year": "2008", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick; Hall, Thad E.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1s4j9-qfk88", "eprint_id": 64665, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 15:08:21", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:35:21", "type": "book_section", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Sinclair-B", "name": { "family": "Sinclair", "given": "Betsy" } } ] }, "title": "Rational Voters and the Recall Election", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2006 Pearson Prentice Hall.\n\nSubmitted - Rational_Voters_and_the_Recall_Election.pdf
", "abstract": "The 2003 California recall election presented voters with a pair of choices. The first was whether or not to recall Gray Davis as Governor of the state. They were then faced with a list of 135 potential replacement candidates, one of whom would be chosen in the event Davis lost on the initial recall question. The two ballot questions were formally separate questions, but they were interrelated and conditional in nature. If I vote in favor of recalling Davis as Governor, whom should I support to replace him? Alternatively, voters who opposed recalling Davis as Governor had to decide who to vote for as replacement candidate to try to insure that, if Davis were recalled, an acceptable replacement candidate would be elected.", "date": "2005", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "Pearson Prentice-Hall", "place_of_pub": "Upper Saddle River, NJ", "pagerange": "87-97", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-160148689", "isbn": "9780131933361", "book_title": "Clicker politics : essays on the California recall", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-160148689", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "contributors": { "items": [ { "id": "Bowler-S", "name": { "family": "Bowler", "given": "Shawn" } }, { "id": "Cain-B-E", "name": { "family": "Cain", "given": "Bruce E." } } ] }, "primary_object": { "basename": "Rational_Voters_and_the_Recall_Election.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1s4j9-qfk88/files/Rational_Voters_and_the_Recall_Election.pdf" }, "resource_type": "book_section", "pub_year": "2005", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Kiewiet, D. Roderick; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1nnd2-v2r10", "eprint_id": 14056, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 12:56:46", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 16:04:49", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Goodrich-M", "name": { "family": "Goodrich", "given": "Melanie" } }, { "id": "Hall-T-E", "name": { "family": "Hall", "given": "Thad E." } }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Sled-S-M", "name": { "family": "Sled", "given": "Sarah M." } } ] }, "title": "The complexity of the California recall election", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Copyright \u00a9 2004 by the American Political Science Association.We thank Conny McCormack (Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder)\nand Susan Pinkus (director of the Los Angeles Times Poll) for some of the\ndata used in this paper. We also thank the California Institute of Technology\nand the Carnegie Corporation of New York for their support.\n\nPublished - ALVpsp04.pdf
", "abstract": "The October 7, 2003 California Recall Election strained California's direct democracy. In recent California politics there has not been a statewide election conducted on such short notice; county election officials were informed on July 24 that the election would be held on October 7. Nor has California recently seen a ballot with so many candidates running for a single statewide office (see Mueller 1970). Under easy ballot access requirements, Secretary of State Kevin Shelley certified 135 candidates for the official ballot on August 13^1. \nIn the recall, voters cast votes on (1) whether to recall Governor Davis from office, and (2) his possible successor. These two voting decisions were made independent by the federal district court's decision on July 29. The court's decision invalidated a state law requiring a vote on the recall question in order for a vote on the successor election to be counted (Partnoy et al. 2003).\nThe abbreviated election calendar also led to many improvisations, including a dramatically reduced number of precinct poll sites throughout the state and the unprecedented ability of military personnel,\ntheir dependents, and civilians living overseas to return their absentee ballots by fax. These problems produced litigation and speculation that substantial problems would mar the election and throw the outcome of both the recall and a possible successor's election into doubt. In the end, the litigation failed to stall the recall election, and the large final vote margins on both the recall question and the successor ballot seemingly overwhelmed Election Day problems. \nIn this paper, we concentrate on some of the problems produced by the complexity of the recall election, but we do not attempt an exhaustive presentation of these problems. We focus on polling place problems on election day, the problems associated with translating the complicated recall election ballot into six languages, how the long ballot influenced voter behavior, and voter difficulties with the ballot measured with survey data. We conclude with a short discussion of the possible impact of these problems on the recall election.", "date": "2004-01-04", "date_type": "published", "publication": "PS: Political Science & Politics", "volume": "37", "number": "1", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "23-26", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20090423-135013650", "issn": "1049-0965", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20090423-135013650", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Caltech" }, { "agency": "Carnegie Corporation" } ] }, "doi": "10.1017/S1049096504003567", "primary_object": { "basename": "ALVpsp04.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1nnd2-v2r10/files/ALVpsp04.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2004", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Goodrich, Melanie; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/m7ev7-h0m40", "eprint_id": 64552, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 10:36:53", "lastmod": "2024-01-13 16:40:51", "type": "book_section", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Vote Trading in the First Federal Congress? James Madison and the Compromise of 1790", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "abstract": "Introduction. It is fitting that the men who designed the Constitution of the United States in 1787 are known as \"the Framers,\" for that document is skeletal indeed. This is not to say that these individuals chose to engage in an abstract exercise in implementation theory. Advocates of particular policies, eager to have their preferences graven into constitutional bedrock, compelled delegates to the Constitutional Convention to consider all the major issues of the day. With a few exceptions, however, specific policies were not embedded into the Constitution, as doing so would have precluded adoption or stymied ratification. It was thus left to the First Federal Congress, elected in the first federal election of 1788, to address the many thorny questions that the Convention had left unresolved.", "date": "2003", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "Stanford University Press", "place_of_pub": "Stanford, California", "pagerange": "264-301", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-105855483", "isbn": "9780804744959", "book_title": "James Madison: The Theory and Practice of Republican Government", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-105855483", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "contributors": { "items": [ { "id": "Kernell-Samuel", "name": { "family": "Kernell", "given": "Samuel" } } ] }, "resource_type": "book_section", "pub_year": "2003", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/2v71m-stq31", "eprint_id": 64549, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 09:09:16", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:29:44", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Myagkov-M", "name": { "family": "Myagkov", "given": "Mikhail" } } ] }, "title": "Are the Communists Dying Out in Russia?", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2002 The Regents of the University of California. Published by Elsevier Ltd. \n\nA previous version of this paper was presented at the Conference on Initial Conditions and the Transition Economy in Russia: the Weight of the Past in Comparative Perspective, The University of Houston, April 2001. The research it reports was supported by a grant to the California Institute of Technology by the National Council for Eurasian and East European Research. We would like to thank Sergei Beriozkin, Jim Gibson, Paul Gregory, Carol Leonard, Tom Remington, Peter Ordeshook, and Steve Smith for their comments and criticisms.\n\nSubmitted - Russia's.PDF
Submitted - Russia=0027s.PDF
", "abstract": "Many predicted that the strength of the Communist Party in Russia would wane as the elderly pensioners who disproportionately supported the party died off. Contrary to this prediction, the findings of our analysis indicate that voters who reached retirement age during the past decade were even more supportive of the communists than the cohort of pensioners who preceded them. We believe this occurred because it was workers approaching retirement, not pensioners per se, who were disproportionately injured by the transition to a more market-oriented economy. Like pensioners they lost savings, but in many cases they also lost their jobs. They also had little opportunity to learn the new skills that the Russian economy increasingly calls for. There is as yet no indication that the communists have begun to die out.", "date": "2002-03", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Communists and Post-Communists Studies", "volume": "35", "number": "1", "publisher": "Elsevier", "pagerange": "39-50", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-104725912", "issn": "0967-067X", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-104725912", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "National Council for Eurasian and East European Research" } ] }, "doi": "10.1016/S0967-067X(01)00023-X", "primary_object": { "basename": "Russia=0027s.PDF", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/2v71m-stq31/files/Russia=0027s.PDF" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2002", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and Myagkov, Mikhail" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/65yxy-fpe84", "eprint_id": 64652, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 08:47:32", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:34:46", "type": "book", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Loewenberg-G", "name": { "family": "Loewenberg", "given": "Gerhard" } }, { "id": "Squire-P", "name": { "family": "Squire", "given": "Peverill" } }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Legislatures: Comparative Perspectives on Representative Assemblies", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2002 University of Michigan Press.", "abstract": "The purpose of this book is to bridge the gap between the large, systematic body of scholarship on the U.S. Congress and the significant though more scattered scholarship on legislatures outside the United States. Although there is no single paradigm that guides research on Congress, there has been a succession of dominant methodologies. Among these the rational choice approach is the most recent. Furthermore, the sustained work on Congress has produced an accepted body of knowledge on many aspects of the institution, and considerable agreement on the current research agenda. By comparison, research on legislatures outside the United States employs a greater variety of methodologies and substantive emphases, influenced by the different contexts in which these legislatures exist and by the differences in national scholarly traditions. The theories, concepts, and measures that guide this research have varied considerably. It is therefore difficult to relate the contributions of research on legislatures outside the United States to our general understanding of the legislative institution. The premise underlying this book is that students of the U.S. Congress and students of other legislatures have a great deal to learn from each other. \n\nThe political science literature on Congress is impressive but its findings are parochial in the sense that they are seldom tested in other legislative settings. Legislative specialists seem to be comfortable with the implicit but improbable conclusion that the U.S. Congress is unique. Overall, to the extent that legislative research is confined within national compartments, few generalizations can be made about legislatures as such. \n\nIn the introduction to this volume, we set out what we regard as the implications of research on Congress for the field of comparative legislative research. The subsequent essays -- on legislative recruitment and careers; on legislative representation; on party structures in legislatures; on rules and procedures; and on the evolution of legislatures -- demonstrate that there is by now considerable convergence in methods and substantive interests among all legislative scholars. The final essay draws some conclusions about past obstacles to that convergence and about present prospects for its further development. \n\nMany of the essays in this volume were originally presented at an international legislative research conference at the University of Iowa in 1998. We are grateful tot he National Science Foundation, the Benjamin F. Schambaugh Memorial Fund, the Charles Stewart Mott Foundation, and the University of Iowa for their support of this conference. We appreciate the work of Karen Stewart, Administrative Assistant in the Department of Political Science at the University of Iowa, for her work in organizing the conference. \n\nThe papers presented at the conference were the subject of discussion and of written critiques by a group of distinguished commentators: Richard Calland (Cape Town Democracy Center), Herbert D\u00f6ring (University of Potsdam)Heinz Eulau (Stanford University), C. Lawrence Evans (College of William and Mary), Malcolm E. Jewell (University of Kentucky), Keith Krehbiel (Stanford University), David R. Mayhew (Yale University), Michael L. Mezey (DePaul University), Njuguna Ng'ethe (University of Nairobi), Lia Nijzink (University of Leiden)Samuel C. Patterson (Ohio State University), Suzanne Sch\u00fcttemeyer (University of Halle), K\u00e4are Str\u00f8m (University of California at San Diego), and John R. Wright (Ohio State University). On the basis of that discussion, all of the papers were substantially revised. \n\nThe essays in this volume by John R. Hibbing, Gary F. Moncrief, Werner J. Patzelt, Fabiano Santos, David T. Canon, Michael Laver, Steven S. Smith, Gary W. Cox, Bj\u00f8rn Erik Rasch, Rick K. Wilson, and John M. Carey, Frantisek Formanek, and Ewa Karpowicz weere first published in the Legislative Studies Quarterly. We thank the Comparative Legislative Research Center of the University of Iowa, which publishes the journal, for permission to reprint these essays here. Finally, we are grateful to Michelle L. Wiegand, Managing Editor of the Quarterly, for supervising all aspects of the publication of these essays. \n\nWe intend this volume , and the substantial references to the literature that accompany each essay, to be both a reflection of and a contribution to cross-national collaboration in the field of legislative studies, We hope it will strengthen comparative legislative research.", "date": "2002", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "University of Michigan Press", "place_of_pub": "Ann Arbor, MI", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-145607023", "isbn": "9780472097906", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-145607023", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF" }, { "agency": "Benjamin F. Schambaugh Memorial Fund" }, { "agency": "Charles Stewart Mott Foundation" }, { "agency": "University of Iowa" } ] }, "resource_type": "book", "pub_year": "2002", "author_list": "Loewenberg, Gerhard; Squire, Peverill; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/bsbbj-6kt26", "eprint_id": 64653, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 07:02:15", "lastmod": "2024-01-13 16:41:11", "type": "book", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Gerber-E-R", "name": { "family": "Gerber", "given": "Elisabeth R." } }, { "id": "Lupia-A", "name": { "family": "Lupia", "given": "Arthur" } }, { "id": "McCubbins-M-D", "name": { "family": "McCubbins", "given": "Mathew D." } }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Stealing the Initiative: How State Government Responds to Direct Democracy", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2001 Prentice Hall. \n\nThe authors acknowledge he generous support of this project by the Public Policy Institute of California. We thank Christopher DenHartog for his dedicated service to this project, from its inception to its completion. We thank James E. Alt, R. Michael Alvarez, Bruce E. Cain, Jack Citrin, Jack Coons, John Ellwood, Beth Gillett, David Grether, Zoltan Hajnal, Paul Herrnson, Thaddeus Kousser, David Magleby, Kathleen Much, the Public Policy Institute of California research staff, and participants at seminars on this study given at Harvard University, UCLA, and the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association (Atlanta, 1999) for valuable suggestions. We also thank Donna Hirsch of the Bureau of the Census for her assistance on obtaining data, Michelle Reinschmidt for preparing figures and tables, and Michael Epstein for research assistance. Porfessor Kiewiet acknowledges the support of the John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation. Professors Gerber and Lupia acknowledge the support of the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, where they completed this study.", "abstract": "This book uses eleven recent California initiatives and referendums to provide readers with a set of analytical tools and examples that will help them better understand real politics. It clarifies the public consequences, and studies the great variations of what happens to initiatives that win on Election Day and withstand judicial review. Research is presented in an effective and efficient manner, along with key factors that lead policy actors to implement and enforce initiatives and referendums fully, partially, and not at all\u2014a social phenomenon that affects our lives in fundamental ways. A wide range of policy areas cover tobacco tax, transportation, legislative spending provision, term limits provision, open primaries, and bilingual education. This book also includes varied conclusions about how to reform the initiative process to improve direct democracy. For citizens who want to understand and/or increase their role in government.", "date": "2001", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "Prentice Hall", "place_of_pub": "Upper Saddle River, NJ", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-145923532", "isbn": "978-0130284075", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-145923532", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John Randolph and Dora Haynes Foundation" }, { "agency": "Stanford University Center for Advance Study in the Behavioral Sciences" } ] }, "resource_type": "book", "pub_year": "2001", "author_list": "Gerber, Elisabeth R.; Lupia, Arthur; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/7s76d-swq25", "eprint_id": 64551, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 05:51:23", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:29:49", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Economic Retrospective Voting and Incentives for Policymaking", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 2000 Elsevier. \n\nAn earlier version of this paper was delivered at the Conference on Economics and Elections: Comparisons and Conclusions, Sandbjerg, Denmark, 23\u201326 August 1998. I would like to thank Mike Alvarez, Frank Baumgartner, Sam Kernell, John Ledyard, Michael Lewis-Beck, Lynn Maurer, Donald Wittman, and especially Martin Paldam for their comments and criticisms.", "abstract": "This paper explores the possibility that the punishment\u2013reward strategy known as economic retrospective voting provides incentives to pursue good economic policies. By \"good\" we mean policies that enhance efficiency and reduce economic rents. The key hypothesis is that in those countries whose electoral arrangements and governing institutions yield high clarity of responsibility, a resultant high level of retrospective voting should compel incumbent parties to be more vigorous in the pursuit of efficiency-enhancing policies, or at least less vigorous in creating rents. In countries where the clarity of responsibility is low, the more tenuous linkage between economic performance and electoral success should leave incumbent governments less motivated to promote efficiency and to eliminate rents. As hypothesized, countries low in clarity of responsibility appear to be more inclined to subject their economies to over-regulation and to engage in higher levels of transfers and subsidies. On several other policy dimensions, however, there were no discernable differences between high and low clarity of responsibility countries.", "date": "2000-06", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Electoral Studies", "volume": "10", "number": "2-3", "publisher": "Elsevier", "pagerange": "427-444", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-105113156", "issn": "0261-3794", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-105113156", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.1016/S0261-3794(99)00060-8", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2000", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/pe564-8nq75", "eprint_id": 64663, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 03:47:53", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:35:16", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "The Demise of California's Public Schools Reconsidered", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 1999 California Institute of Technology. \n\nThis research is supported by the Haynes Foundation and the Public Policy Institute of California.\n\nPublished - the_demise_of_california's_public_schools_reconsidered.pdf
Published - the_demise_of_california=0027s_public_schools_reconsidered.pdf
", "abstract": "I'm not sure when I first got interested in this particular line of research\u2014the fact that I have a son who is now 10 and that we had to make a lot of decisions about his educational future probably got me a bit worried, but I think it actually dates back to when we first arrived in California in the fall of '79. It seemed that all anyone was talking about was Proposition 13, which had passed by a nearly 2-to-1 margin (65 to 35 percent) the previous year. Everywhere we went, it was Proposition 13 this and Proposition 13 that. Some people felt that the voters had just gotten into an angry snit and had irrationally gone on an antigovernment crusade without thinking about the consequences; people on the other side felt that they had been provoked by then-governor Jerry Brown's inane fiscal policies. I don't know if we ever sorted that out, but the conventional wisdom, both among public-policy experts and the voters on the street, has been that Proposition 13 was roughly equal to the Sylmar earthquake, except that we inflicted it upon ourselves.", "date": "1999", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Engineering and Science", "volume": "62", "number": "3", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "pagerange": "20-27", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-154826439", "issn": "0013-7812", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-154826439", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John Randolph Haynes Foundation" }, { "agency": "Public Policy Institute of California" } ] }, "primary_object": { "basename": "the_demise_of_california=0027s_public_schools_reconsidered.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/pe564-8nq75/files/the_demise_of_california=0027s_public_schools_reconsidered.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1999", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ewj2w-s8x93", "eprint_id": 64592, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 03:29:01", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:31:55", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Udell-M", "name": { "family": "Udell", "given": "Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-3985-915X" } ] }, "title": "Twenty-five Years after Kramer: An Assessment of Economic Retrospective Voting based upon Improved Estimates of Income and Unemployment", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 1998 Blackwell Publishers Ltd.\n\nWe would like to thank Chris Achen, Michael Alvarez, Lance Davis, Jeff Dubin, David Grether, Bob Erikson, Jonathan Katz, Bill Keech, Morgan Kousser, Howard Rosenthal, Sam Kernell, Ken Sokoloff, Charles Stewart, and the late George Stigler for their assistance. The opinions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the Joint Committee on Taxation.", "abstract": "Several studies in economics have derived estimates of economic activity in the years prior to World War II that differ significantly from official statistics. In this paper we examine the possibility that the impact of economic retrospective voting upon congressional election outcomes has been at least partially obscured by shortcomings in the official data series. To that end we re-estimate various specifications of the basic Kramer model with these revised measures of income and unemployment. Although the effect of changes in real per capita income does not depend much upon which particular income series we used, the observed impact of unemploy-\nment doubles in size when the new estimates of historical unemployment rates made by Romer (1986b) and by Darby (1976) are used. Although the evidence is less than definitive, the results of our analyses also lend credence to the proposition that economic conditions have a greater impact upon congressional voting in on-year elections than in off years, and that the incumbent party is bound to suffer a midterm penalty.", "date": "1998-11", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Economics and Politics", "volume": "10", "number": "3", "publisher": "Wiley", "pagerange": "219-248", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-151326256", "issn": "0954-1985", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-151326256", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1111/1468-0343.00045", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1998", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and Udell, Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/khwse-x3w72", "eprint_id": 64555, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 02:13:59", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:30:06", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Myagkov-M", "name": { "family": "Myagkov", "given": "Mikhail" } } ] }, "title": "The Emergence of the Private Sector in Russia: A Financial market Perspective", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 1998 V. H. Winston & Son, Inc. \n\nA preliminary version of this paper was delivered at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois, April 10-12, 1997. The authors thank Peter Boessarts, Oleg Bondarenko, Lance Davis, Mikhail Filippov, Tracy Guyer, Mike Herron, Carol Scott Leonard, Tom Palfrey, and Philip Roeder for their comments and criticism. They also thank Susan Powell and Carolyn Gray for their work on the graphics. The findings and conclusions reported in this article are not to be taken as investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.", "abstract": "[no abstract]", "date": "1998", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Post-Soviet Affairs", "volume": "14", "number": "1", "publisher": "V. H. Winston & Son", "pagerange": "23-47", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-111124374", "issn": "1060-586X", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-111124374", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1080/1060586X.1998.10641445", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1998", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and Myagkov, Mikhail" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/zdhyq-cg747", "eprint_id": 64554, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 07:26:41", "lastmod": "2023-12-12 00:20:16", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick (Rod)" } }, { "id": "Szakaly-K", "name": { "family": "Szakaly", "given": "Kristin" } } ] }, "title": "Constitutional Limitations on Borrowing: An Analysis of State Bonded Indebtedness", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 1996 Oxford University Press. \n\nAn earlier version of this article was presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois, September 3-5, 1992. We would like to thank Mike Alvarez, Peter Bossaerts, James Clingermeyer, Lance Davis, Bob Erikson, David Grether, Donna Hirsch, Jonathan Katz, James Leigland, John Matsusaka, Mat McCubbins, David Porter, John Peterson, James Poterba, Roberta Romano, Thomas Schwartz, Robert Stein, and B. Dan Wood for their assistance. This work was supported by a grant from the Haynes Foundation, Los Angeles, California.", "abstract": "State and local governments have long had constitutional limits on the issuance of full faith and credit debt. Our analyses find that levels of such debt depend upon the type of restriction in place. States that either prohibit guaranteed debt or require referendum approval to issue it have less guaranteed debt than those that require a supermajority of the legislature to issue debt or those that have revenue-based limitations. Although the issuance of state nonguaranteed debt does not appear to be generally motivated by the aim of circumventing constitutional limitations on guaranteed debt, restrictive provisions at the state level do result in the devolution of debt issuance to governments at the local level. Our findings suggest that current proposals for constitutional limitations on borrowing at the federal level would have much less impact on total government borrowing than their proponents anticipate.", "date": "1996-04", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization", "volume": "12", "number": "1", "publisher": "Oxford University Press", "pagerange": "62-97", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-110620200", "issn": "8756-6222", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-110620200", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Haynes Foundation" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1996", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick (Rod) and Szakaly, Kristin" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/mz1t9-kt287", "eprint_id": 64547, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 07:13:49", "lastmod": "2023-12-12 01:14:03", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Myagkov-M", "name": { "family": "Myagkov", "given": "Mikhail" } }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick (Rod)" } } ] }, "title": "Czar Rule in the Russian Congress of People's Deputies?", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 1996 Washington University.", "abstract": "We construct a formal model, based upon the rules and structure of the Russian Congress of People's Deputies, to characterize equilibrium strategies pursued by an agenda-setting Speaker. In conjunction with information about the distribution of preferences in the RCPD, our Czar Rule model yields several testable hypotheses. The model receives some empirical backing, but overall the results of our analyses do not support it. We therefore attribute the conflict between the Yeltsin government and the RCPD to fundamental disagreements over policy and not to internal contradictions in constitutional design.
Czar Rule in the Russian congress of People's Deputies, to characterize equilibrium strategies pursued by an agenda-setting Speaker. In conjunction with the information about the distribution of preferences in the RCPD, our Czar Rule model yields several testable hypotheses. The model receives some empirical backing, but overall the results of our analysis do not support it. We therefore, attribute the conflict between the Yeltsin government and the RCPD to fundamental disagreements over policy and not to internal contradictions in constitutional design.
", "date": "1996-02", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Legislative Studies Quarterly", "volume": "21", "number": "1", "publisher": "Comparative Legislative Research Center", "pagerange": "5-40", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-103849568", "issn": "0362-9805", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-103849568", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.2307/440156", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1996", "author_list": "Myagkov, Mikhail and Kiewiet, D. Roderick (Rod)" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/t201n-2a493", "eprint_id": 52351, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 03:21:37", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 19:47:29", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Zeng-L", "name": { "family": "Zeng", "given": "Langche" } } ] }, "title": "An Analysis of Congressional Career Decisions, 1947-1986", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 1993 American Political Science Association.\n\nPublished - 2938824.pdf
", "abstract": "Most previous research on congressional career decisions has focused on one of two binary\nchoices-between retiring and running for reelection, or between running for reelection\nand seeking higher office. But most of the time, representatives face all three choices\nsimultaneously. Employing a \"mother logit\" model, we estimate the effects of relevant variables both\non pairwise comparisons (conditional probabilities) and on the unconditional probabilities of choosing\neach one of these three alternatives. Probably most intriguing is our finding that a member's age has\nlittle or no effect upon the unconditional probability of running for reelection. The interrelatedness of\ncareer options is seen particularly clearly in the case of incumbents who had been redistricted out of\ntheir seats. When they had an opportunity to run for higher office, they were likely to take it. Only\nwhen they lacked such an opportunity were they more likely than other members to opt for retirement.", "date": "1993-12", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Political Science Review", "volume": "87", "number": "4", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "928-941", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20141203-142051061", "issn": "0003-0554", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20141203-142051061", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "primary_object": { "basename": "2938824.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/t201n-2a493/files/2938824.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1993", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and Zeng, Langche" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/6f7r9-mx352", "eprint_id": 64546, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 00:50:58", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:29:34", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Dubin-J-A", "name": { "family": "Dubin", "given": "Jeffrey A." } }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Noussair-C-N", "name": { "family": "Noussair", "given": "Charles N." } } ] }, "title": "Voting on Growth Control Measures: Preferences and Strategies", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Issue published online: 27 OCT 2006.\n\nAn earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the Western Political Science Association, March 20\u201323, 1991, Seattle, Washington. We would like to thank Peter Navarro for stimulating our interest in the subject, and Ken McCue for providing us with data. We also thank Henry Brady, Bruce Cain, Andy Gelman, Elizabeth Gerber, Robert Gilmour, Eric Hughson, Mat McCubbins, Skip Lupia, Max Neiman, Thomas Romer, Paul Rothstein, and an anonymous referee for their comments and criticisms.\n\nFormerly SSWP 777", "abstract": "Citizens of many California cities and counties have sought to restrict the rate of population growth in their localities. In 1988, Citizens for Limited Growth used the initiative process to place a pair of growth control measures on the ballot in the City and County of San Diego, respectively. The City Council and Board of Supervisors responded by placing less stringent, competing measures on the same ballot. This paper analyzes voting data from this election to examine the nature of support for such measures. We find strong support for the hypotheses that whites, homeowners, liberal/environmentalists, and those exposed to high levels of traffic congestion are more likely to favor growth controls. This paper also investigates the behavior of voters when they confront competing propositions concerning the same issue on the same ballot, and finds strong evidence of strategic voting.", "date": "1992", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Economics and Politics", "volume": "4", "number": "2", "publisher": "Wiley", "pagerange": "191-213", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-103316381", "issn": "0954-1985", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-103316381", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "other_numbering_system": { "items": [ { "id": "777", "name": "Social Science Working Paper" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.1111/j.1468-0343.1992.tb00062.x", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1992", "author_list": "Dubin, Jeffrey A.; Kiewiet, D. Roderick; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/x9z9e-zje69", "eprint_id": 64579, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 00:00:59", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:31:15", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Cain-B-E", "name": { "family": "Cain", "given": "Bruce E." } }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Uhlaner-C-J", "name": { "family": "Uhlaner", "given": "Carole J." } } ] }, "title": "The Acquisition of Partisanship by Latinos and Asian Americans", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 1991 by the University of Texas Press.\nManuscript submitted 31 August 1989.\nFinal manuscript received 27 July 1990.\n\nThis project was funded by a grant from the Seaver Institute. We thank Bob Brischetto, Arnita\nShastri, and Chris Gallant for their assistance in carrying out the research. We would also like to\nthank Paul Abramson, David Brownstone, Chris Garcia, Rudy de la Garza, and anonymous reviewers\nfor their comments on earlier versions of this article.\n\nOne response to the lack of contemporaneous survey data from earlier periods is to analyze\nthe reports of respondents in the National Election Studies (NES), which began in 1952, about their\npartisan affiliations in the past. On the basis of such reports, Andersen (1979) surmised that the urban\nethnic core of the New Deal coalition was largely the product of the mobilization of secondgeneration\ncitizens. As Andersen herself points out, however, the unreliability of people's memories\ndictates that reports about past partisanship be regarded with considerable caution.", "abstract": "In this paper we examine the acquisition of partisanship by immigrants and subsequent generations of Latinos and Asian Americans. The data we analyze are derived from a survey of California residents in late 1984. We find that the longer Latino immigrants have been in the United States, the more likely they are to identify as Democrats and to have strong party preferences. We find age-related gains in both Democratic support and in the strength of partisanship among subsequent generations of Latinos as well. In line with our hypotheses about their foreign policy concerns, the data also suggest that immigrants from China, Korea, and Southeast Asia become more Republican with increased exposure to American politics. Other Asian immigrants and subsequent generations of Asian Americans exhibit no such trends in either the direction of their party preferences or in partisan intensity.", "date": "1991-05", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Journal of Political Science", "volume": "35", "number": "2", "publisher": "Midwest Political Science Association", "pagerange": "390-422", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-135024096", "issn": "0092-5853", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-135024096", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Seaver Institute" } ] }, "doi": "10.2307/2111368", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1991", "author_list": "Cain, Bruce E.; Kiewiet, D. Roderick; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/fyn8g-qaj34", "eprint_id": 64593, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 23:30:21", "lastmod": "2024-01-13 16:40:52", "type": "book_section", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Bureaucrats and Budgetary Outcomes: Quantitative Analyses", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 1991 University of Pittsburgh Press.", "abstract": "The expansion of the public sector in advanced industrial democracies is one of the most important political developments of the last hundred years. Government bureaus throughout the world now provide trillions of dollars annually in services that were previously supplied either privately or not at all -- from parking ramps to pollution control, health care to housing, and rockets to rock concerts. At the beginning of this long period of growth in the public sector, many observers welcomed it as the happy consequence of increasing affluence and the desire for social progress (Wagner 1958). It appeared to them that government, in response to popular demand, was simply shouldering its responsibility for the welfare of the citizenry from cradle to grave. By the 1970s, however, the public sector in many Western democracies accounted for over half of the GNP. By this time, the growth of government had provoked a great deal of alarm -- especially among public choice theorists (Buchanan 1977). After regressing government growth rates on a battery of income, wealth, and population variables, Borcherding (1977) concludes that only about half of the growth in the public sector can be accounted for by increases in public demand.", "date": "1991", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "University of Pittsburgh Press", "place_of_pub": "Pittsburgh, PA", "pagerange": "143-173", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-152700352", "isbn": "9780822936794", "book_title": "The Budget-Maximizing Bureaucrat: Appraisals and Evidence", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-152700352", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "contributors": { "items": [ { "id": "Blais-A", "name": { "family": "Blais", "given": "Andr\u00e9" } }, { "id": "Dion-S", "name": { "family": "Dion", "given": "St\u00e9phane" } } ] }, "resource_type": "book_section", "pub_year": "1991", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/tsfqx-64r41", "eprint_id": 64651, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 23:30:24", "lastmod": "2024-01-13 16:41:09", "type": "book", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "McCubbins-M-D", "name": { "family": "McCubbins", "given": "Mathew D." } } ] }, "title": "The Logic of Delegation: Congressional Parties and the Appropriations Process", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 1991 University of Chicago Press. \n\nWe would like to thank the research assistants who have worked with u on this project: Scott Ainsworth, Marla Davison, Michael Greenberg, Shayn, O'Halloran, Bill Laury, David Moon, Suisherng Zhao, Brtian Sala, Kenneth Williams, and especially David Falleck andEric Claus, who collected much of the raw data. We thank Keith Poole for providing us with his data on congressional members' NOMINATE scores and Samuel Bookheimer for sending us his appropriations data. we would also like to thank George Pigman, Pamela Easley, Eloisa Imel, Tom Boyce, Debbie McGougan, Carol Pearson, Phyllis Pugh, Marty Hertzel, and Kathryn Kraynik for their assistance in preparing this book for publication. \n\nWe have benefited from the comments, criticism, and advice provided by a large number of friends and colleagues, who are listed in alphabetical order: Joel Aberbach, Jim Alt, Stanley Bach, Kim Border, Tom Brock, Bruce Cain, Gary Cox, Lance Davis, Bob Erickson, Richard Fenno, John Ferejohn, Moris Fiorina, Gary Jacobson, Sam Kernell, Morgan Kousser, John Ledyard, Nick Masters, Gary Miller, Douglass North, Peter Ordeshook, H. L. Perry, Charles Plott, Keith Poole, David Rohde, Howard Rosenthal, Thomas Schwartz, Kenneth Shepsle, Steven Smith, Matt Spitzer, Charles Stewart, Barry Weingast, Joe White, Rick Wilson, and Chris Wlezian. We are particularly indebted to Roger Noll, who, after reading early drafts of some of the chapters, was able to tell us what this book is really about. That this book has been published now (as opposed to considerably later) is due largely to the efforts of our editor, John Tryneski.\n\nFinally, we thank the California Institute of Technology, the University of Texas, the Business School at Washington University, and the University of California at San Diego for the support they provided us. Mr. McCubbins acknowledges the support of the National Science Foundation, grants SES-8421161 and SES-8811022.", "abstract": "[no abstract]", "date": "1991", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "University of Chicago Press", "place_of_pub": "Chicago, IL", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-145314849", "isbn": "9780226435299", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-145314849", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Caltech" }, { "agency": "University of Texas" }, { "agency": "Washington University" }, { "agency": "University of California San Diego" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SES-8421161" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SES-8811022" } ] }, "resource_type": "book", "pub_year": "1991", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and McCubbins, Mathew D." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/50yde-bvn20", "eprint_id": 67315, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 21:59:10", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 21:05:00", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Banks-J-S", "name": { "family": "Banks", "given": "Jeffrey S." } }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Explaining Patterns of Candidate Competition in Congressional Elections", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 1989 Midwest Political Science Association. \n\nManuscript submitted 8 September 1987. Final manuscript received 13 February 1989. \n\nWe gratefully acknowledge Ed Green for the advice and assistance he gave us in the early stages of this research. Bruce Cain, Morris Fiorina, Will Jones, Sandy Maisel, Fred Thompson, Jack Wright, and especially Gary Jacobson provided valuable comments and criticisms on earlier versions of this paper. We would also like to thank Linda Donnelly and Pamella Easley for their assistance in data collection.\n\nPublished - 2111118.pdf
", "abstract": "The low probability of defeating incumbent members of Congress deters potentially strong\nrivals from challenging them. Yet almost all incumbents are challenged, usually by opponents who\nlack previous experience in office and run underfinanced, ineffectual campaigns. But if strong challengers\nare deterred from challenging incumbents, why are not weak challengers, who have even less\nchance of unseating an incumbent?\nThe model developed in this paper indicates that there is a simple reason why weak candidates\nchoose to run against incumbents: they do so in order to maximize their probability of getting elected\nto Congress. Together with the findings of previous researchers, the results of our analyses of congressional\nprimary data from 1980 through 1984 provide strong support for the major hypotheses\nderived from our model.", "date": "1989-11", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Journal of Political Science", "volume": "33", "number": "4", "publisher": "Midwest Political Science Association", "pagerange": "997-1015", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160524-151310390", "issn": "0092-5853", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160524-151310390", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.2307/2111118", "primary_object": { "basename": "2111118.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/50yde-bvn20/files/2111118.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1989", "author_list": "Banks, Jeffrey S. and Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/p11v3-2qb73", "eprint_id": 64581, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 21:58:48", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:31:18", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Banks-J-S", "name": { "family": "Banks", "given": "Jeffrey S." } } ] }, "title": "Explaining Patterns of Candidate Competition in Congressional Elections", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 1989 by the University of Texas Press.\nManuscript submitted 8 September 1987.\nFinal manuscript received 13 February 1989.\n\nWe gratefully acknowledge Ed Green for the advice and assistance he gave us in the early\nstages of this research. Bruce Cain, Morris Fiorina, Will Jones, Sandy Maisel, Fred Thompson, Jack\nWright, and especially Gary Jacobson provided valuable comments and criticisms on earlier versions\nof this paper. We would also like to thank Linda Donnelly and Pamella Easley for their assistance in\ndata collection.", "abstract": "The low probability of defeating incumbent members of Congress deters potentially strong rivals from challenging them. Yet almost all incumbents are challenged, usually by opponents who lack previous experience in office and run underfinanced, ineffectual campaigns. But if strong challengers are deterred from challenging incumbents, why are not weak challengers, who have even less chance of unseating an incumbent? \n\nThe model developed in this paper indicates that there is a simple reason why weak candidates choose to run against incumbents: they do so in order to maximize their probability of getting elected to Congress. Together with the findings of previous researchers, the results of our analyses of congressional primary data from 1980 through 1984 provide strong support for the major hypotheses derived from our model.", "date": "1989-11", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Journal of Political Science", "volume": "33", "number": "4", "publisher": "Midwest Political Science Association", "pagerange": "997-1015", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-135729564", "issn": "0092-5853", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-135729564", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.2307/2111118", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1989", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and Banks, Jeffrey S." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/j1e5c-mja20", "eprint_id": 64574, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 06:50:06", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 17:23:28", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Uhlaner-C-J", "name": { "family": "Uhlaner", "given": "Carole J." } }, { "id": "Cain-B-E", "name": { "family": "Cain", "given": "Bruce E." } }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Political participation of ethnic minorities in the 1980s", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "Political Science; Sociology; Political Psychology", "note": "\u00a9 1989 Plenum Publishing Corporation. \n\nThis project was funded by a grant from the Seaver Institute. We thank Arnita Shastri and Chris Gallant for their assistance in the research. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1987 Annual Meeting of the Western Political Science Association, Anaheim, California. We would like to thank the discussants and also the participants in the Southern California Political Behavior Seminar and the Harvard American Politics Seminar for their comments. The Russell Sage Foundation supported the first author as a Visiting Fellow during one year of work on this project.", "abstract": "Currently political participation, especially voter registration and turnout, varies substantially with ethnicity. Blacks and non-Hispanic whites participate at roughly equal rates, while Latinos and Asian-Americans are substantially less active. This variation may be the direct product of cultural factors, or it may reflect differences in the distribution of various determinants of participation, most notably education, citizenship, and age. Using data collected in 1984 on samples of California's black, Latino, Asian-American, and non-Hispanic white populations, we conclude that such variables fully account for lower Latino participation rates. Even with these controls, however, Asian-Americans remain less likely to vote. Because ethnic group consciousness is one of the variables related to activity, we conclude that ethnicity does have an indirect effect on participation as a basis for mobilization. In addition, we establish that noncitizens engage in nonelectoral activities, and we project future political participation rates of Latinos and Asian-Americans under several scenarios.", "date": "1989-09", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Behavior", "volume": "11", "number": "3", "publisher": "Springer", "pagerange": "195-231", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-133735883", "issn": "0190-9320", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-133735883", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Seaver Institute" }, { "agency": "Russell Sage Foundation" } ] }, "doi": "10.1007/BF00992297", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1989", "author_list": "Uhlaner, Carole J.; Cain, Bruce E.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/bwc1a-r7f80", "eprint_id": 64583, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 20:47:41", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:31:30", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "McCubbins-M-D", "name": { "family": "McCubbins", "given": "Mathew D." } } ] }, "title": "Presidential Influence on Congressional Appropriations Decisions", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "Manuscript submitted 19 September 1986. Final manuscript received 26 May 1987. \n\nWe thank Roger Noll, John Padgett, John Ferejohn, Thomas Schwartz, John Ledyard, Keith Krehbiel, Thomas Gilligan, and Barry Weingast for comments and criticisms. Jeff Dubin provided valuable econometric advice. David Lowery and Samuel Bookheimer provided us with their budgetary data, which we used to check the accuracy of a large subset of our data. We also thank Eric Claus, David Fallek, Marla Davison, and Bill Lowry for research assistance. This material is based upon work supported by the Graduate School of Business, Washington University, and by the National Science Foundation under grant SES-8421161.", "abstract": "We investigate the extent to which possession of the veto allows the president to influence congressional decisions regarding regular annual appropriations legislation. The most important implication of our analysis is that the influence the veto conveys is asymmetrical: it allows the president to restrain Congress when he prefers to appropriate less to an agency than Congress does; it does not provide him an effective means of extracting higher appropriations from Congress when he prefers to spend more than it does. The asymmetry derives from constitutional limitations o the veto, in combination with the pretense of a de facto reversionary expenditure level contained in the appropriations process (Fenno, 1966). We find strong support for this proposition in a regression of presidential requests upon congressional appropriations decisions.", "date": "1988-08", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Journal of Political Science", "volume": "32", "number": "3", "publisher": "Midwest Political Science Association", "pagerange": "713-736", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-140429409", "issn": "0092-5853", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-140429409", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Washington University" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SES-8421161" } ] }, "doi": "10.2307/2111243", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1988", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and McCubbins, Mathew D." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/7h6fp-9ra76", "eprint_id": 64560, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 17:45:52", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:30:29", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "McCubbins-M-D", "name": { "family": "McCubbins", "given": "Mathew D." } } ] }, "title": "Appropriations Decisions as a Bilateral Bargaining Game between President and Congress", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "An earlier version of this essay was delivered at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, September 1983. We would like to thank Roger Noll, Doug Rivers, Linda Cohen, Keith Krehbiel, Robert Browning, Dick Jankowski, Mark Karnlet, David Mowery, and an anonymous referee for their valuable comments and criticisms.", "abstract": "In this essay we model appropriations decisions as products of a bilateral bargaining game between a reelection-minded president and Congress. The findings bear out the expectation that the two sides jointly pursue a strategy of accommodation. In awarding appropriations, Congress takes into account the president's preferences embodied in the OMB's budget requests; these requests in turn reflected expectations of congressional action. The evidence also reveals that several important exogenous political and economic variables influence both executive and legislative appropriations decisions.", "date": "1985-05", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Legislative Studies Quarterly", "volume": "10", "number": "2", "publisher": "Comparative Legislative Research Center", "pagerange": "181-202", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-120456706", "issn": "0362-9805", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-120456706", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1985", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and McCubbins, Mathew D." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/kgr3n-eez55", "eprint_id": 64577, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 17:36:01", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:31:11", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "McCubbins-M-D", "name": { "family": "McCubbins", "given": "Mathew D." } } ] }, "title": "Congressional Appropriations and the Electoral Connection", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 1985 University of Chicago Press. \n\nThis paper has benefited greatly from the advice and assistance of Bruce Cain. Jeff Dubin, David Grether, Richard McKelvey, Doug Rivers, and Quong Vuong provided econometric advice. We would also like to thank Bob Bates, Richard Fenno, John Ferejohn, Morris Fiorina, Ed Green, Peter Gourevitch, Mark Kamlet, Keith Krehbiel, Allan Meltzer, Terry Moe, Roger Noll, Ben Page, Howard Rosenthal, Alan Schwartz, and the anonymous referees for their valuable comments and criticisms.\n\nPublished - congressional_appropriations_and_the_electoral_connection.pdf
", "abstract": "Congressional scholars have frequently reported dramatic shifts int he mood of Congress toward federal spending. In seeking to explain these fluctuations in congressional moods, we develop and estimate an \"electoral connection\" model of the congressional appropriations process. In this model appropriations decisions are seen to be the product of the responses of reelection-seeking members of Congress to the key political and economic variables in their environment.", "date": "1985-02", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Journal of Politics", "volume": "47", "number": "1", "publisher": "University of Chicago Press", "pagerange": "59-82", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-134202067", "issn": "0022-3816", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-134202067", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "primary_object": { "basename": "congressional_appropriations_and_the_electoral_connection.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/kgr3n-eez55/files/congressional_appropriations_and_the_electoral_connection.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1985", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and McCubbins, Mathew D." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/zatz1-9x391", "eprint_id": 64561, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 04:09:44", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:30:33", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Rivers-D", "name": { "family": "Rivers", "given": "Douglas" } } ] }, "title": "A retrospective on retrospective voting", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "Political Science; Sociology; Political Psychology", "note": "\u00a9 1984 Agathon Press, Inc. \n\nAcknowledgments. Though we alone bear responsibility for the contents of this paper, we have benefited from conversations over the past few years on this topic with Morris Fiorina, Douglas Hibbs, Donald Kinder, and Gerald Kramer. The National Science Foundation provided research support under grant SES-8309994.", "abstract": "This paper critically reviews the extensive literature on retrospective voting in response to economic conditions. Each of the major types of analyses which have been performed \u2014 time-series analyses of national vote totals, presidential popularity, and cross-sectional analyses of individual survey responses \u2014 has raised several interesting and important questions. The answers that have been obtained, however, are only partial and limited, as each of these approaches entails serious problems of estimation and interpretation. Further progress in this area, we argue, requires explicit treatment of conceptual and statistical issues that have hindered previous research: the dynamic formulation of expectations and preferences, the incidence of policy (and nonpolicy) effects across the population, and notions of incumbency and political responsibility.", "date": "1984-12", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Behavior", "volume": "6", "number": "4", "publisher": "Springer", "pagerange": "369-393", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-121150529", "issn": "0190-9320", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-121150529", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SES-8309994" } ] }, "doi": "10.1007/BF00987073", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1984", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and Rivers, Douglas" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/k9e5f-meh77", "eprint_id": 64559, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 16:57:22", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:30:20", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Cain-B-E", "name": { "family": "Cain", "given": "Bruce E." } } ] }, "title": "Ethnicity and Electoral Choice: Mexican-American Voting Behavior in California 30th Congressional District", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 1984 Southwestern Social Science Association.", "abstract": "The 1982 election in California offers a unique natural experiment in ethnic and racial bloc voting. The race in the predominately Hispanic 30th Congressional District matched a well-financed Anglo Republican, John Rousselot, against an incumbent Hispanic Marty Martinez. On the ballot with Martinez and Rousselot were the successful Republican candidates for governor and the U.S. senator George Deukmejian and Pete Wilson, and the losing Democratic candidates, Tom Bradley (who is black) and Jerry Brown. These variations in the race and ethnicity of the candidates on the ballot in 1982 were used to estimate the impact of ethnic and racial considerations in voting decisions.", "date": "1984-06", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Social Science Quarterly", "volume": "65", "number": "2", "publisher": "University of Texas Press", "pagerange": "315-327", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-115525527", "issn": "0038-4941", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-115525527", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "other_numbering_system": { "items": [ { "id": "492", "name": "Social Science Working Paper" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1984", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick and Cain, Bruce E." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1dxfn-npa61", "eprint_id": 64650, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 15:38:39", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:34:42", "type": "book", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 1983 University of Chicago Press. \n\nThis book grew directly out of the doctoral dissertation I wrote at Yale University. I would like to thank several people there who helped me immeasurably by providing generous amounts of advice, commentary, and criticism: above all, my advisor, Donald R. Kinder; my teachers David Cameroon, Paul Johnson, Gerald Kramer, Robert Lane, David Mayhew, Steve Rosenstone, and Edward Tufte; my fellow graduate students Jim Austin, Jay Budzizewski, Tom Cavanagh, Jennifer Hochschild, John Morgan, Joe Morone, and Harold Stanley; and my wife Lorraine. I would also like to thank Sandy Aivano for her help in programming and computing, and Yale University for its generous financial aid during my years in graduate school. \n\nDuring the last few years I have also benefited from extensive discussions of this research with my colleagues at Caltech, especially Bob Bates, Bruce Cain, John Ferejohn, Morris Fiorina, and Roger Noll. I am also indebted to Richard Brody, Ben Page, and David Sears for their valuable comments and criticism. Finally, I would like to thank Barbara Calli for a superb job of word processing and Carl Lydick for his valuable assistance in preparing this book for publication.", "abstract": "[no abstract]", "date": "1983", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "University of Chicago Press", "place_of_pub": "Chicago, IL", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-145030648", "isbn": "0-226-43532-6", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-145030648", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "resource_type": "book", "pub_year": "1983", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/h44ft-tq627", "eprint_id": 64558, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 14:12:55", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:30:18", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Policy-Oriented Voting in Response to Economic Issues", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 American Political Science Association 1981", "abstract": "This study explores the hypothesis that voting in response to economic problems is policy-oriented: voters concerned about unemployment ore predicted to give greater support to Democratic candidates, while those concerned about inflation are predicted to vote more Republican. In light of evidence from previous research, this study investigates the electoral effects of inflation and unemployment as (1) problems directly experienced by the individual, and (2) problems deemed serious for the nation as a whole. Support is strongest for the unemployment side of the hypothesis. Voters personally affected by unemployment gave a modest boost to Democratic candidates in virtually every election. And in years of high unemployment the large percentage of voters who fell it was a serious national problem voted heavily Democratic as well. This study concludes by discussing the important implications these findings have for our understanding of how economic conditions influence voting behavior in American national elections.", "date": "1981-06", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Political Science Review", "volume": "75", "number": "2", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "448-459", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-114004353", "issn": "0003-0554", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-114004353", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.2307/1961377", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1981", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/tmhy1-zek26", "eprint_id": 64557, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 14:05:31", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:30:11", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kinder-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kinder", "given": "Donald R." } }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Sociotropic Politics: The American Case", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 1981 Cambridge University Press. \n\nPublished online: 27 January 2009.\n\nData for this paper were provided by the Inter-University Consortium for Political Research, University of Michigan. The Consortium of course bears no responsibility for our interpretations or conclusions. A preliminary version of this paper was delivered at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, New York, 1978. We would like to thank the journal's two anonymous referees, Jack Citrin, Faye Crosby, Robert Jervis, Richard Merelman, David Sears, Steven Weatherford, and particularly Janet Weiss for their helpful comments and criticisms.", "abstract": "American elections depend substantially on the vitality of the national economy. Prosperity benefits candidates for the House of Representatives from the incumbent party (defined as the party that controls the presidency at the time of the election), whereas economic downturns enhance the electoral fortunes of opposition candidates. Short-term fluctuations in economic conditions also appear to affect the electorate's presidential choice, as well as the level of public approval conferred upon the president during his term. By this evidence, the political consequences of macroeconomic conditions are both pervasive and powerful. But just how do citizens know whether the incumbent party has succeeded or failed? What kinds of economic evidence do people weigh in their political appraisals? The purpose of our paper is to examine two contrasting depictions of individual citizens \u2013 one emphasizing the political significance of citizens' own economic predicaments, the other stressing the political importance of citizens' assessments of the nation's economic predicament - that might underlie the aggregate entwining of economics and politics. Ours is an inquiry into the political economy of individual citizens.", "date": "1981-04", "date_type": "published", "publication": "British Journal of Political Science", "volume": "11", "number": "2", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "129-161", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-113439112", "issn": "0007-1234", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-113439112", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1017/S0007123400002544", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1981", "author_list": "Kinder, Donald R. and Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/pftgc-n4y53", "eprint_id": 64648, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 12:36:43", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:34:36", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kinder-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kinder", "given": "Donald R." } }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Economic Discontent and Political Behavior: The Role of Personal Grievances and Collective Economic Judgments in Congressional Voting", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 1979 by the University of Texas Press. \n\nManuscript submitted 17 April 1978. Final manuscript received 28 November 1978. \n\nData for this paper were provided principally by the Inter-University Consortium for Political Research, University of Michigan. The Consortium of course bears no responsibility for our interpretation or conclusions. A preliminary version of this paper was delivered at the 85th Annual Meeting of the American Psychological Association, San Francisco, California, August, 1977. We would like to thank David Sears who had much to do with the ideas developed here. And for their helpful criticism and advice, we extend our gratitude to Robert Abelson, Jack Citrin, Robert Hoyer, Irving Janis, Samuel Kernell, Dan Minns, W. Russell Neuman, Steven Rosenstone, R. G. Wagner, and Janet A. Weiss.", "abstract": "It is widely assumed that political action is motivated most powerfully by issues that impinge immediately and tangibly upon private life. For example, this assumption pervades the aggregate research that has reported consistent relationships between general economic conditions and congressional election outcomes (e.g., Kramer, 1971). Our analysis of individual-level data, however, indicates that voting in congressional elections from 1956 to 1976 was influenced hardly at all by personal economic grievances. Those voters unhappy with changes in their financial circumstances, or those who had recently been personally affected by unemployment, showed little inclination to punish candidates of the incumbent party for their personal misfortunes. The connection between economic conditions and politics was provided, instead, by judgments of a more general, collective kind -- e.g., by judgments regarding recent trends in general business conditions, and, more powerfully, by judgments about the relative competence of the two major parties to manage national economic problems. These collective economic judgments had little to do with privately experienced economic discontents. Rather they stemmed from voters' partisan predispositions and from their appraisal of changes in national economic conditions.", "date": "1979-08", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Journal of Political Science", "volume": "23", "number": "3", "publisher": "Midwest Political Science Association", "pagerange": "495-527", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-144103634", "issn": "0092-5853", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-144103634", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.2307/2111027", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1979", "author_list": "Kinder, Donald R. and Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/50t6a-jz585", "eprint_id": 64647, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 11:54:01", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:34:31", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Approval Voting: the Case of the 1968 Election", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 1979 University of Chicago Press. \n\n I would like to thank Steven J. Brams, C. Anthony Broh, Robert Hoyer, and an anonymous reviewer for their helpful advice and criticism\n\nPublished - approval_voting__The_case_of_the_1968_election.pdf
", "abstract": "For most of this nation's history, electoral democracy has consisted mainly of competition between the candidates of two major national parties. Thus in most elections for national office the present method of categorical voting, that is, voters vote for one candidate only, has served adequately. Except for the electoral college, this method satisfies a simple democratic criterion - the winner is prefferes to the loser by a simple majority of the voters.", "date": "1979", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Polity", "volume": "12", "number": "1", "publisher": "University of Chicago Press", "pagerange": "170-181", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-143809264", "issn": "0032-3497", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-143809264", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.2307/3234389", "primary_object": { "basename": "approval_voting__The_case_of_the_1968_election.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/50t6a-jz585/files/approval_voting__The_case_of_the_1968_election.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1979", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick" } ]