[ { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/k6mgk-tsg52", "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-12-18 17:32:20", "lastmod": "2023-12-18 17:32:20", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Debnath-Ramit", "name": { "family": "Debnath", "given": "Ramit" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-0727-5683" }, { "id": "Ebanks-Danny", "name": { "family": "Ebanks", "given": "Danny" } }, { "id": "Mohaddes-Kamiar", "name": { "family": "Mohaddes", "given": "Kamiar" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-2501-2062" }, { "id": "Roulet-Thomas", "name": { "family": "Roulet", "given": "Thomas" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-9148-3743" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Do fossil fuel firms reframe online climate and sustainability communication? A data-driven analysis", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "
\u00a9 The Author(s) 2023. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
\n\nWe thank Michael Ewens for his help accessing the CRSP data we use in this paper. RD's work is supported by the Quadrature Climate Foundation, 2023 Google Cloud Climate Innovation program and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1144]. KM, TR, and RD acknowledges support from the Cambridge Judge Business School Small Grant Scheme [SG20-09] and Cambridge Faculty of Economics Keynes Fund [JHVH]. RMA and DE's work is supported by Caltech's Resnick Sustainability Institute (DE's work was supported by the Caltech Resnick Sustainability Institute while he was a PhD candidate at Caltech). RD is grateful to Professor Flora Samuel, Stan Finney and Zara Kuckelhaus for supporting with computing infrastructure.
\n\nThese authors contributed equally: Ramit Debnath, Danny Ebanks.
R.D.: Conceptualization, methodology, investigation, data curation, writing\u2014original draft, writing\u2014review & editing, project administration, funding acquisition, supervision. D.E.: Conceptualization, methodology, investigation, formal analysis, data curation, writing\u2014original draft, writing\u2014review & editing, project administration, visualization. K.M.: Conceptualization, funding acquisition. T.R.: Conceptualization, writing\u2014review & editing, funding acquisition. R.M.A.: Conceptualization, methodology, investigation, writing original draft, writing\u2014review & editing, project administration, funding acquisition, supervision.
\n\nThe materials necessary to reproduce the results reported in this paper are available at https://github.com/danielEban ks/. Energy-Industry-Greenwashing. Per the terms of Twitter's academic use policies, we will make available the tweet IDs for the data used in this paper upon publication. Researchers can obtain the CRSP data from https://www.crsp.org/. Publicly available extreme weather events data can be obtained from EM-DAT (https://www.emdat.be). Alternatively, please contact the corresponding author to request the dataset.
\n\nThe code necessary to reproduce the results reported in this paper is available at the following GitHub repository: https://github.com/danielEbanks/Energy-Industry-Greenwashing.
\n\nThe authors declare no competing interests.
", "abstract": "Identifying drivers of climate misinformation on social media is crucial to climate action. Misinformation comes in various forms; however, subtler strategies, such as emphasizing favorable interpretations of events or data or reframing conversations to fit preferred narratives, have received little attention. This data-driven paper examines online climate and sustainability communication behavior over 7 years (2014\u20132021) across three influential stakeholder groups consisting of eight fossil fuel firms (industry), 14 non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and eight inter-governmental organizations (IGOs). We examine historical Twitter interaction data (n\u2009=\u2009668,826) using machine learning-driven joint-sentiment topic modeling and vector autoregression to measure online interactions and influences amongst these groups. We report three key findings. First, we find that the stakeholders in our sample are responsive to one another online, especially over topics in their respective areas of domain expertise. Second, the industry is more likely to respond to IGOs' and NGOs' online messaging changes, especially regarding environmental justice and climate action topics. The fossil fuel industry is more likely to discuss public relations, advertising, and corporate sustainability topics. Third, we find that climate change-driven extreme weather events and stock market performance do not significantly affect the patterns of communication among these firms and organizations. In conclusion, we provide a data-driven foundation for understanding the influence of powerful stakeholder groups on shaping the online climate and sustainability information ecosystem around climate change.
", "date": "2023-12-18", "date_type": "published", "publication": "npj Climate Action", "volume": "2", "publisher": "Nature Publishing Group", "pagerange": "47", "issn": "2731-9814", "official_url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/k6mgk-tsg52", "funders": { "items": [ {}, { "grant_number": "OPP1144" }, { "grant_number": "SG20-09" }, { "grant_number": "Keynes Fund" }, { "grant_number": "Resnick Sustainability Institute" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Resnick-Sustainability-Institute" } ] }, "doi": "10.1038/s44168-023-00086-x", "primary_object": { "basename": "s44168-023-00086-x.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/k6mgk-tsg52/files/s44168-023-00086-x.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "44168_2023_86_MOESM2_ESM.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/k6mgk-tsg52/files/44168_2023_86_MOESM2_ESM.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2023", "author_list": "Debnath, Ramit; Ebanks, Danny; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/gqd91-2ae97", "eprint_id": 122430, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 21:24:23", "lastmod": "2023-12-22 23:32:02", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Rouhani-Nina", "name": { "family": "Rouhani", "given": "Nina" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-2814-0462" }, { "id": "Stanley-Damian", "name": { "family": "Stanley", "given": "Damian" }, "orcid": "0000-0001-9815-913X" }, { "id": "Adolphs-R", "name": { "family": "Adolphs", "given": "Ralph" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8053-9692" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Camplisson-Isabella", "name": { "family": "Camplisson", "given": "Isabella" }, "orcid": "0000-0001-9653-2789" }, { "id": "Han-Yanting", "name": { "family": "Han", "given": "Yanting" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-3381-2059" }, { "id": "Harrison-Laura-A", "name": { "family": "Harrison", "given": "Laura A." } }, { "id": "Hien-Denise", "name": { "family": "Hien", "given": "Denise" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-6954-2882" }, { "id": "Hopkins-Amber", "name": { "family": "Hopkins", "given": "Amber" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8354-565X" }, { "id": "Lan-Tian", "name": { "family": "Lan", "given": "Tian" } }, { "id": "Lawrence-Caroline-V", "name": { "family": "Lawrence", "given": "Caroline" } }, { "id": "Liang-Dehua", "name": { "family": "Liang", "given": "Dehua" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-4794-0270" }, { "id": "Lin-Chujun", "name": { "family": "Lin", "given": "Chujun" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-7605-6508" }, { "id": "L\u00f3pez-Castro-Teresa", "name": { "family": "L\u00f3pez-Castro", "given": "Teresa" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-2521-6329" }, { "id": "Maoz-Uri-M", "name": { "family": "Maoz", "given": "Uri" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-7899-1241" }, { "id": "Nizzi-Marie-Christine", "name": { "family": "Nizzi", "given": "Marie-Christine" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-2062-8992" }, { "id": "Paul-Lynn-K", "name": { "family": "Paul", "given": "Lynn K." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-3128-8313" }, { "id": "Rabkin-Golden-Allison", "name": { "family": "Rabkin Golden", "given": "Allison" } }, { "id": "Rusch-Tessa", "name": { "family": "Rusch", "given": "Tessa" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-5445-6885" }, { "id": "Stanley-Damien-A", "name": { "family": "Stanley", "given": "Damien A." } }, { "id": "Wahle-Iman-A", "name": { "family": "Wahle", "given": "Iman" } } ] }, "title": "Collective events and individual affect shape autobiographical memory", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Multidisciplinary", "note": "\u00a9 2023 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). \n\nWe thank all members of the COVID-Dynamic team (see SI Appendix, section 5 for project description and specific contributions). We also thank Ruben Van Genugten, who developed the Autobiographical Interview NLP tool, Qianying Wu, and James Antony for fruitful discussion. \n\nData, Materials, and Software Availability: All modeling code and output is publicly available, organized by the order of reported results (https://github.com/ninarouhani/2023_RouhaniAdolphs). Anonymized quantitative data/code have been deposited in github (https://github.com/ninarouhani/2023_RouhaniAdolphs) (71). All other data are included in the article and/or supporting information. \n\nAuthor contributions: N.R., D.S., and R.A. designed research; N.R. and C.-D.T. performed research; N.R. analyzed data; and N.R. and R.A. wrote the paper. \n\nThe authors declare no competing interest.\n\nPublished - pnas.2221919120.pdf
Supplemental Material - pnas.2221919120.sapp.pdf
Supplemental Material - pnas.2221919120.sd01.docx
", "abstract": "How do collective events shape how we remember our lives? We leveraged advances in natural language processing as well as a rich, longitudinal assessment of 1,000 Americans throughout 2020 to examine how memory is influenced by two prominent factors: surprise and emotion. Autobiographical memory for 2020 displayed a unique signature: There was a substantial bump in March, aligning with pandemic onset and lockdowns, consistent across three memory collections 1 y apart. We further investigated how emotion, using both immediate and retrieved measures, predicted the amount and content of autobiographical memory: Negative affect increased recall across all measures, whereas its more clinical indices, depression and posttraumatic stress disorder, selectively increased nonepisodic recall. Finally, in a separate cohort, we found pandemic news to be better remembered, surprising, and negative, while lockdowns compressed remembered time. Our work connects laboratory findings to the real world and delineates the effects of acute versus clinical signatures of negative emotion on memory.", "date": "2023-07-18", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America", "volume": "120", "number": "29", "publisher": "National Academy of Sciences", "pagerange": "Art. No. e2221919120", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20230725-49131000.14", "issn": "0027-8424", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20230725-49131000.14", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "COVID-19" }, { "id": "Division-of-Biology-and-Biological-Engineering" } ] }, "corp_creators": { "items": [ "COVID-Dynamic Team" ] }, "doi": "10.1073/pnas.2221919120", "pmcid": "PMC10629560", "primary_object": { "basename": "pnas.2221919120.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/gqd91-2ae97/files/pnas.2221919120.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "pnas.2221919120.sapp.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/gqd91-2ae97/files/pnas.2221919120.sapp.pdf" }, { "basename": "pnas.2221919120.sd01.docx", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/gqd91-2ae97/files/pnas.2221919120.sd01.docx" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2023", "author_list": "Rouhani, Nina; Stanley, Damian; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/m80gs-pk975", "eprint_id": 120718, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 06:11:46", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 17:58:04", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Li-Yimeng", "name": { "family": "Li", "given": "Yimeng" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-3855-0756" } ] }, "title": "Survey Attention and Self-Reported Political Behavior", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "We thank the John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation for supporting our research, and the Orange County Registrar of Voters for providing access to administrative data. We thank Jian Cao and Ines Levin for their collaborations with us on related projects. This paper was presented at the 2021 Midwest Political Science Association annual meeting; we thank panel participants for their comments and feedback about our research.\n\nSubmitted - survey-attention-and-self-reported-political-behavior.pdf
", "abstract": "Survey research methodology is evolving rapidly, as new technologies provide new opportunities. One of the areas of innovation regards the development of online interview best practices, and the advancement of methods that allow researchers to measure the attention that subjects are devoting to the survey task. Reliable measurement of subject attention can yield important information about the quality of the survey response. In this paper, we take advantage of an innovative survey we conducted in 2018, in which we directly connect survey responses to administrative data, allowing us to directly assess the association between survey attention and response quality. We show that attentive survey subjects are more likely to provide accurate survey responses regarding a number of behaviors and attributes that we can validate with our administrative data. The best strategy to deal with inattentive respondents, however, depends on the correlation between respondent attention and the outcome of interest.", "date": "2023-04-11", "date_type": "published", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20230411-18484000.1", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20230411-18484000.1", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation" } ] }, "doi": "10.33774/apsa-2021-x689s", "primary_object": { "basename": "survey-attention-and-self-reported-political-behavior.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/m80gs-pk975/files/survey-attention-and-self-reported-political-behavior.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2023", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Li, Yimeng" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ga8ac-53s46", "eprint_id": 121445, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 20:26:21", "lastmod": "2023-12-22 21:33:52", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Debnath-Ramit", "name": { "family": "Debnath", "given": "Ramit" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-0727-5683" }, { "id": "Reiner-David-M", "name": { "family": "Reiner", "given": "David M." }, "orcid": "0000-0003-2004-8696" }, { "id": "Sovacool-Benjamin-K", "name": { "family": "Sovacool", "given": "Benjamin K." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-4794-9403" }, { "id": "M\u00fcller-Hansen-Finn", "name": { "family": "M\u00fcller-Hansen", "given": "Finn" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-0425-1996" }, { "id": "Repke-Tim", "name": { "family": "Repke", "given": "Tim" }, "orcid": "0000-0001-9661-6325" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Fitzgerald-Shaun-D", "name": { "family": "Fitzgerald", "given": "Shaun D." } } ] }, "title": "Conspiracy spillovers and geoengineering", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Multidisciplinary", "note": "\u00a9 2023 The Author(s). Under a Creative Commons license - Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) \n\nR.D. gratefully acknowledges support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1144], Cambridge Centre for Climate Repair, CambridgeZero, Laudes Foundation and Quadrature Climate Foundation, and the Google Cloud Climate Innovation Challenge Award. Caltech's Resnick Sustainability Institute supports R.M.A.'s work. We thank Twitter for granting access to their v2API. We also thank Google Jigsaw for granting access to their Perspective API via the Google Cloud Platform.\n\nBKS, FMH and TR acknowledge funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the European Research Council (ERC) Grant Agreement No. 951542-GENIE-ERC-2020-SyG, \"GeoEngineering and NegatIve Emissions pathways in Europe\" (GENIE). The content of this deliverable does not reflect the official opinion of the European Union. Responsibility for the information and views expressed herein lies entirely with the author(s). \n\nAuthor contribution. R.D. and S.D.F. conceived the study. R.D., S.D.F., and R.M.A. developed the analytical framework. R.D. developed the results, vizualisations and led the manuscript preparation. All authors interpreted the results, wrote and reviewed the manuscript. \n\nInclusion and diversity. One or more of the authors of this paper self-identifies as an underrepresented ethnic minority in their field of research or within their geographical location. One or more of the authors of this paper received support from a program designed to increase minority representation in their field of research. We avoided \"helicopter science\" practices by including the participating local contributors from the region where we conducted the research as authors on the paper. While citing references scientifically relevant for this work, we also actively worked to promote gender balance in our reference list. We support inclusive, diverse, and equitable conduct of research. \n\nData and code availability: \n\u2022 All data have been deposited at Mendeley Data and are publicly available as of publication. DOI is listed in the key resources table. Any additional information required to reanalyze the data reported in this paper is available from the lead contact upon request. \n\n\u2022 All codes have been deposited at GitHub and are publicly available as of the publication date. DOI is listed in the key resources table. Any additional information required to reanalyze the data reported in this paper is available from the lead contact upon request. \n\nThe authors declare no competing interests.\n\nPublished - main.pdf
Supplemental Material - 1-s2.0-S2589004223002432-mmc1.pdf
", "abstract": "Geoengineering techniques such as solar radiation management (SRM) could be part of a future technology portfolio to limit global temperature change. However, there is public opposition to research and deployment of SRM technologies. We use 814,924 English-language tweets containing #geoengineering globally over 13 years (2009\u20132021) to explore public emotions, perceptions, and attitudes toward SRM using natural language processing, deep learning, and network analysis. We find that specific conspiracy theories influence public reactions toward geoengineering, especially regarding \"chemtrails\" (whereby airplanes allegedly spray poison or modify weather through contrails). Furthermore, conspiracies tend to spillover, shaping regional debates in the UK, USA, India, and Sweden and connecting with broader political considerations. We also find that positive emotions rise on both the global and country scales following events related to SRM governance, and negative and neutral emotions increase following SRM projects and announcements of experiments. Finally, we also find that online toxicity shapes the breadth of spillover effects, further influencing anti-SRM views.", "date": "2023-03-17", "date_type": "published", "publication": "iScience", "volume": "26", "number": "3", "publisher": "Cell Press", "pagerange": "106166", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20230519-999570000.1", "issn": "2589-0042", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20230519-999570000.1", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation", "grant_number": "OPP1144" }, { "agency": "University of Cambridge" }, { "agency": "Laudes Foundation" }, { "agency": "Quadrature Climate Foundation" }, { "agency": "Google Cloud" }, { "agency": "Resnick Sustainability Institute" }, { "agency": "European Research Council (ERC)", "grant_number": "951542" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Resnick-Sustainability-Institute" } ] }, "doi": "10.1016/j.isci.2023.106166", "pmcid": "PMC10040962", "primary_object": { "basename": "main.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ga8ac-53s46/files/main.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "1-s2.0-S2589004223002432-mmc1.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ga8ac-53s46/files/1-s2.0-S2589004223002432-mmc1.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2023", "author_list": "Debnath, Ramit; Reiner, David M.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/e65gr-rdk79", "eprint_id": 120083, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 09:08:09", "lastmod": "2023-10-25 16:51:53", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kocielnik-Rafal", "name": { "family": "Kocielnik", "given": "Rafal" }, "orcid": "0000-0001-5602-6056" }, { "id": "Prabhumoye-Shrimai", "name": { "family": "Prabhumoye", "given": "Shrimai" } }, { "id": "Zhang-Vivian", "name": { "family": "Zhang", "given": "Vivian" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Anandkumar-A", "name": { "family": "Anandkumar", "given": "Anima" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-6974-6797" } ] }, "title": "AutoBiasTest: Controllable Sentence Generation for Automated and Open-Ended Social Bias Testing in Language Models", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).\n\nWe would like to thank the Caltech SURF program for contributing to the funding of this project. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant # 2030859 to the Computing Research Association for the CIFellows Project. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation nor the Computing Research Association. Anima Anandkumar is partially supported by Bren Named Chair Professorship at Caltech and is a paid employee of Nvidia.\n\nSubmitted - 2302.07371.pdf
", "abstract": "Social bias in Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) affects text generation and other downstream NLP tasks. Existing bias testing methods rely predominantly on manual templates or on expensive crowd-sourced data. We propose a novel AutoBiasTest method that automatically generates sentences for testing bias in PLMs, hence providing a flexible and low-cost alternative. Our approach uses another PLM for generation and controls the generation of sentences by conditioning on social group and attribute terms. We show that generated sentences are natural and similar to human-produced content in terms of word length and diversity. We illustrate that larger models used for generation produce estimates of social bias with lower variance. We find that our bias scores are well correlated with manual templates, but AutoBiasTest highlights biases not captured by these templates due to more diverse and realistic test sentences. By automating large-scale test sentence generation, we enable better estimation of underlying bias distributions.", "date": "2023-03-16", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "arXiv", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20230316-153717662", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20230316-153717662", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Caltech Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF)" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "CCF-2030859" }, { "agency": "Bren Professor of Computing and Mathematical Sciences" } ] }, "primary_object": { "basename": "2302.07371.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/e65gr-rdk79/files/2302.07371.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2023", "author_list": "Kocielnik, Rafal; Prabhumoye, Shrimai; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/704fk-e7p43", "eprint_id": 119906, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-10-09 22:02:56", "lastmod": "2023-12-22 23:45:16", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Rusch-Tessa", "name": { "family": "Rusch", "given": "Tessa" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-5445-6885" }, { "id": "Han-Yanting", "name": { "family": "Han", "given": "Yanting" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-3381-2059" }, { "id": "Liang-Dehua", "name": { "family": "Liang", "given": "Dehua" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-4794-0270" }, { "id": "Hopkins-Amber-R", "name": { "family": "Hopkins", "given": "Amber R." } }, { "id": "Lawrence-Caroline-V", "name": { "family": "Lawrence", "given": "Caroline V." } }, { "id": "Maoz-Uri-M", "name": { "family": "Maoz", "given": "Uri" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-7899-1241" }, { "id": "Paul-Lynn-K", "name": { "family": "Paul", "given": "Lynn K." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-3128-8313" }, { "id": "Stanley-Damian-A", "name": { "family": "Stanley", "given": "Damian A." }, "orcid": "0000-0001-5992-8901" }, { "id": "Adolphs-R", "name": { "family": "Adolphs", "given": "Ralph" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8053-9692" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Camplisson-Isabella", "name": { "family": "Camplisson", "given": "Isabella" }, "orcid": "0000-0001-9653-2789" }, { "id": "Harrison-Laura-A", "name": { "family": "Harrison", "given": "Laura" } }, { "id": "Hien-Denise", "name": { "family": "Hien", "given": "Denise" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-6954-2882" }, { "id": "Lan-Tian", "name": { "family": "Lan", "given": "Tian" } }, { "id": "Lin-Chujusn", "name": { "family": "Lin", "given": "Chujusn" } }, { "id": "L\u00f3pez-Castro-Teresa", "name": { "family": "Lopez-Castro", "given": "Teresa" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-2521-6329" }, { "id": "Nizzic-Marie-Christine", "name": { "family": "Nizzic", "given": "Marie-Christine" } }, { "id": "Rabkin-Golden-Allison", "name": { "family": "Rabkin Golden", "given": "Allison" } }, { "id": "Wahle-Iman-A", "name": { "family": "Wahle", "given": "Iman" } }, { "id": "Yaffe-Gideon", "name": { "family": "Yaffe", "given": "Gideon" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-9385-3912" } ] }, "title": "COVID-Dynamic:\u00a0a large-scale longitudinal study of socioemotional and behavioral change across the pandemic", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Library and Information Sciences; Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty; Computer Science Applications; Education; Information Systems; Statistics and Probability", "note": "\u00a9 The Author(s) 2023. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. \n\nWe deeply appreciate all COVID-Dynamic participants, whose continued diligence and commitment during this difficult time made this data possible. We thank Jonathan Katz for his expert advice on panel data processing and analysis, and Ruby Basyouni for her help during data collection. Lastly, we are grateful to the various funding sources that supported this work: the National Institute of Mental Health (2P50MH094258), the Caltech Chen Neuroscience Institute, and the Caltech Merkin Institute (RA), by the Oscar M. Ruebhausen Fund at Yale Law School (GY), the Rutgers Center of Alcohol & Substance Use Studies (DH), the John Templeton Foundation and the Kay Family COVID-19 Rapid Response Research Awards at Chapman University (UM), and the Colin Powell School for Civic and Global Leadership, The City College of New York (TLC). The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funding agencies. \n\nThese authors contributed equally: Tessa Rusch, Yanting Han, Dehua Liang. \n\nThese authors jointly supervised this work: Lynn K. Paul, Damian A. Stanley. \n\nThe authors declare no competing interests.\n\nPublished - 41597_2022_Article_1901.pdf
", "abstract": "The COVID-19 pandemic has caused enormous societal upheaval globally. In the US, beyond the devastating toll on life and health, it triggered an economic shock unseen since the great depression and laid bare preexisting societal inequities. The full impacts of these personal, social, economic, and public-health challenges will not be known for years. To minimize societal costs and ensure future preparedness, it is critical to record the psychological and social experiences of individuals during such periods of high societal volatility. Here, we introduce, describe, and assess the COVID-Dynamic dataset, a within-participant longitudinal study conducted from April 2020 through January 2021, that captures the COVID-19 pandemic experiences of >1000 US residents. Each of 16 timepoints combines standard psychological assessments with novel surveys of emotion, social/political/moral attitudes, COVID-19-related behaviors, tasks assessing implicit attitudes and social decision-making, and external data to contextualize participants' responses. This dataset is a resource for researchers interested in COVID-19-specific questions and basic psychological phenomena, as well as clinicians and policy-makers looking to mitigate the effects of future calamities.", "date": "2023-02-03", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Scientific Data", "volume": "10", "publisher": "Nature Publishing Group", "pagerange": "Art. No. 71", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20230308-468102500.11", "issn": "2052-4463", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20230308-468102500.11", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NIH", "grant_number": "2P50MH094258" }, { "agency": "Tianqiao and Chrissy Chen Institute for Neuroscience" }, { "agency": "Caltech Merkin Institute for Translational Research" }, { "agency": "Yale Law School" }, { "agency": "Rutgers Center of Alcohol & Substance Use Studies" }, { "agency": "John Templeton Foundation" }, { "agency": "Kay Family Foundation" }, { "agency": "City College of New York" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "COVID-19" }, { "id": "Richard-Merkin-Institute" }, { "id": "Tianqiao-and-Chrissy-Chen-Institute-for-Neuroscience" }, { "id": "Division-of-Biology-and-Biological-Engineering" } ] }, "corp_creators": { "items": [ "COVID-Dynamic Team" ] }, "doi": "10.1038/s41597-022-01901-6", "pmcid": "PMC9897616", "primary_object": { "basename": "41597_2022_Article_1901.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/704fk-e7p43/files/41597_2022_Article_1901.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2023", "author_list": "Rusch, Tessa; Han, Yanting; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/8n4fg-p3v12", "eprint_id": 119499, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 18:52:36", "lastmod": "2023-10-25 14:42:29", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Debnath-Ramit", "name": { "family": "Debnath", "given": "Ramit" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-0727-5683" }, { "id": "van-der-Linden-Sander", "name": { "family": "van der Linden", "given": "Sander" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-0269-1744" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Sovacool-Benjamin-K", "name": { "family": "Sovacool", "given": "Benjamin K." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-4794-9403" } ] }, "title": "Facilitating system-level behavioural climate action using computational social science", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Behavioral Neuroscience; Experimental and Cognitive Psychology; Social Psychology", "note": "\u00a9 2023 Springer Nature. \n\nThe authors declare no competing interests.", "abstract": "Recently, a Comment in Nature Human Behaviour recommended the collection of large-scale behavioural datasets through public data observatories to enable system-level climate action. Computational social science (CSS) approaches offer important tools to use these large-scale datasets to facilitate climate action.", "date": "2023-02", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Nature Human Behaviour", "volume": "7", "number": "2", "publisher": "Nature Publishing Group", "pagerange": "155-156", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20230223-184464800.18", "issn": "2397-3374", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20230223-184464800.18", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1038/s41562-023-01527-7", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2023", "author_list": "Debnath, Ramit; van der Linden, Sander; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/7k8cy-29x80", "eprint_id": 118560, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 08:48:17", "lastmod": "2023-10-24 23:24:11", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kocielnik-Rafal", "name": { "family": "Kocielnik", "given": "Rafal" }, "orcid": "0000-0001-5602-6056" }, { "id": "Kangaslahti-Sara", "name": { "family": "Kangaslahti", "given": "Sara" } }, { "id": "Prabhumoye-Shrimal", "name": { "family": "Prabhumoye", "given": "Shrimai" } }, { "id": "Hari-Meena", "name": { "family": "Hari", "given": "Meena" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Anandkumar-A", "name": { "family": "Anandkumar", "given": "Anima" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-6974-6797" } ] }, "title": "Can You Label Less by Using Out-of-Domain Data? Active & Transfer Learning with Few-shot Instructions", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).\n\nWe would like to thank the Caltech SURF program for contributing to the funding of this project and especially the named donor Carolyn Ash. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant # 2030859 to the Computing Research Association for the CIFellows Project. Anima Anandkumar is partially supported by Bren Named Chair Professorship at Caltech and is a paid employee of Nvidia. Sara Kangaslahti was a paid part-time intern at Nvidia during this project.\n\nAccepted Version - 2211.11798.pdf
", "abstract": "Labeling social-media data for custom dimensions of toxicity and social bias is challenging and labor-intensive. Existing transfer and active learning approaches meant to reduce annotation effort require fine-tuning, which suffers from over-fitting to noise and can cause domain shift with small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a novel Active Transfer Few-shot Instructions (ATF) approach which requires no fine-tuning. ATF leverages the internal linguistic knowledge of pre-trained language models (PLMs) to facilitate the transfer of information from existing pre-labeled datasets (source-domain task) with minimum labeling effort on unlabeled target data (target-domain task). Our strategy can yield positive transfer achieving a mean AUC gain of 10.5% compared to no transfer with a large 22b parameter PLM. We further show that annotation of just a few target-domain samples via active learning can be beneficial for transfer, but the impact diminishes with more annotation effort (26% drop in gain between 100 and 2000 annotated examples). Finally, we find that not all transfer scenarios yield a positive gain, which seems related to the PLMs initial performance on the target-domain task.", "date": "2022-12-22", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "arXiv", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20221221-004733367", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20221221-004733367", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Caltech Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF)" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "CCF-2030859" }, { "agency": "Bren Professor of Computing and Mathematical Sciences" }, { "agency": "NVIDIA Corporation" } ] }, "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.2211.11798", "primary_object": { "basename": "2211.11798.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/7k8cy-29x80/files/2211.11798.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2022", "author_list": "Kocielnik, Rafal; Kangaslahti, Sara; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/yvq1n-fjs92", "eprint_id": 117559, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 18:18:02", "lastmod": "2023-10-24 22:34:35", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Lopez-Jennifer", "name": { "family": "Lopez", "given": "Jennifer" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-0286-6065" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Kim-Seo-young-Silvia", "name": { "family": "Kim", "given": "Seo-young Silvia" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8801-9210" } ] }, "title": "Latinos, group identity, and equal opportunity on the 2020 California ballot", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "General Social Sciences", "abstract": "Objective. Racial minority groups are often assumed to support equal opportunity policies, with most research focused on biracial contexts between Whites and Blacks. With a unique opportunity to study richer contexts from California's 2020 elections, we test whether Latino voters supported ballot measures associated with equal opportunity. \n\nMethods. Using data on vote choice for Propositions 15 (raising commercial property taxes) and 16 (repealing prohibition of affirmative action) from a post-election survey of California registrants, we use logistic regression to test whether Latino support for equal opportunity policies is higher than that of Whites. \n\nResults. For both propositions, while Latino support was higher than White support, it was not statistically different when controlled for partisanship. \n\nConclusion. There is little evidence to suggest that California Latinos support equal opportunity policies more strongly than White voters. This lukewarm support may explain the fates of both propositions in the election.", "date": "2022-12", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Social Science Quarterly", "volume": "103", "number": "7", "publisher": "Wiley", "pagerange": "1572-1586", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20221024-125854800.30", "issn": "0038-4941", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20221024-125854800.30", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1111/ssqu.13217", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2022", "author_list": "Lopez, Jennifer; Alvarez, R. Michael; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/05y5e-bx345", "eprint_id": 119497, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 18:21:30", "lastmod": "2023-10-25 14:42:23", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Li-Yimeng", "name": { "family": "Li", "given": "Yimeng" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-3855-0756" } ] }, "title": "Survey Attention and Self-Reported Political Behavior", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "History and Philosophy of Science; General Social Sciences; Sociology and Political Science; History; Communication", "note": "We thank the John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation for supporting our research, and the Orange County Registrar of Voters for providing access to administrative data. We thank Jian Cao and Ines Levin for their collaborations with us on related projects. This paper was presented at the 2021 Midwest Political Science Association annual meeting; we thank panel participants for their comments and feedback about our research.", "abstract": "Survey research methodology is evolving rapidly, as new technologies provide new opportunities. One of the areas of innovation regards the development of online interview best practices and the advancement of methods that allow researchers to measure the attention that respondents are devoting to the survey task. Reliable measurement of respondent attention can yield important information about the quality of the survey response. In this article, we take advantage of an innovative survey we conducted in 2018, in which we directly connect survey responses to administrative data, allowing us to assess the association between survey attention and response quality. We show that attentive survey respondents are more likely to provide accurate survey responses regarding a number of behaviors and attributes that we can validate with our administrative data. We discuss the best strategy to deal with inattentive respondents in surveys in light of our results.", "date": "2022-12", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Public Opinion Quarterly", "volume": "86", "number": "4", "publisher": "Oxford University Press", "pagerange": "793-811", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20230223-184464800.14", "issn": "0033-362X", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20230223-184464800.14", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation" } ] }, "doi": "10.1093/poq/nfac048", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2022", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Li, Yimeng" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/wh8mh-pqk33", "eprint_id": 118235, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 18:12:27", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 20:10:26", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Debnath-Ramit", "name": { "family": "Debnath", "given": "Ramit" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-0727-5683" }, { "id": "Bardhan-Ronita", "name": { "family": "Bardhan", "given": "Ronita" }, "orcid": "0000-0001-5336-4084" }, { "id": "Shah-Darshil-U", "name": { "family": "Shah", "given": "Darshil U." } }, { "id": "Mohaddes-Kamiar", "name": { "family": "Mohaddes", "given": "Kamiar" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-2501-2062" }, { "id": "Ramage-Michael-H", "name": { "family": "Ramage", "given": "Michael H." }, "orcid": "0000-0003-2967-7683" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Sovacool-Benjamin-K", "name": { "family": "Sovacool", "given": "Benjamin K." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-4794-9403" } ] }, "title": "Social media enables people-centric climate action in the hard-to-decarbonise building sector", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Multidisciplinary", "note": "\u00a9 The Author(s) 2022. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. \n\nRD acknowledges support from the Cambridge Zero and Quadrature Climate Foundation, Laudes Foundation, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1144], Cambridge Judge Business School Small Grant (2020\u201321), the Keynes Fund 2021\u201322 [JHVH] and the Alan Turing Institute's Postdoctoral Enrichment Award [G116750]. Caltech's Resnick Sustainability Institute supports RMA's work. RB's work is supported by the UK Space Agency NSIP Award (2021\u201322). We would also like to thank Twitter for providing access to their APIs. A working paper version of this study can be found at Cambridge Working Paper in Economics 2202. \n\nData availability. The datasets analysed during the current study are available in the Open Science Framework repository https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/QC453. The user identifiers are anonymized as per Twitter's developers policy and GDPR rules https://gdpr.twitter.com/see here. \n\nEthics approval. This research was reviewed by the Institutional Review Board at the Judge Business School, University of Cambridge (20-064) and at the California Institute of Technology (21-1169). Twitter was informed about this research during the v2API request.\n\nPublished - 41598_2022_Article_23624.pdf
Supplemental Material - 41598_2022_23624_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
", "abstract": "The building and construction sector accounts for around 39% of global carbon dioxide emissions and remains a hard-to-abate sector. We use a data-driven analysis of global high-level climate action on emissions reduction in the building sector using 256,717 English-language tweets across a 13-year time frame (2009\u20132021). Using natural language processing and network analysis, we show that public sentiments and emotions on social media are reactive to these climate policy actions. Between 2009\u20132012, discussions around green building-led emission reduction efforts were highly influential in shaping the online public perceptions of climate action. From 2013 to 2016, communication around low-carbon construction and energy efficiency significantly influenced the online narrative. More significant interactions on net-zero transition, climate tech, circular economy, mass timber housing and climate justice in 2017\u20132021 shaped the online climate action discourse. We find positive sentiments are more prominent and recurrent and comprise a larger share of the social media conversation. However, we also see a rise in negative sentiment by 30\u201340% following popular policy events like the IPCC report launches, the Paris Agreement and the EU Green Deal. With greater online engagement and information diffusion, social and environmental justice topics emerge in the online discourse. Continuing such shifts in online climate discourse is pivotal to a more just and people-centric transition in such hard-to-decarbonise sectors.", "date": "2022-11-17", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Scientific Reports", "volume": "12", "publisher": "Nature Publishing Group", "pagerange": "Art. No. 19017", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20221205-666301600.8", "issn": "2045-2322", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20221205-666301600.8", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Cambridge Zero" }, { "agency": "Quadrature Climate Foundation" }, { "agency": "Laudes Foundation" }, { "agency": "Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation", "grant_number": "OPP1144" }, { "agency": "University of Cambridge" }, { "agency": "Resnick Sustainability Institute" }, { "agency": "Alan Turing Institute", "grant_number": "G116750" }, { "agency": "United Kingdom Space Agency (UKSA)" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Resnick-Sustainability-Institute" } ] }, "doi": "10.1038/s41598-022-23624-9", "pmcid": "PMC9671910", "primary_object": { "basename": "41598_2022_23624_MOESM1_ESM.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/wh8mh-pqk33/files/41598_2022_23624_MOESM1_ESM.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "41598_2022_Article_23624.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/wh8mh-pqk33/files/41598_2022_Article_23624.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2022", "author_list": "Debnath, Ramit; Bardhan, Ronita; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/pwshw-hc934", "eprint_id": 116861, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 17:32:19", "lastmod": "2023-10-24 21:10:17", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Li-Yimeng", "name": { "family": "Li", "given": "Yimeng" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-3855-0756" }, { "id": "Hyun-Michelle", "name": { "family": "Hyun", "given": "Michelle" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Why Do Election Results Change after Election Day? The \"Blue Shift\" in California Elections", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Sociology and Political Science", "note": "The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: Funding for this project came from the John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation. Hyun's work was supported by the Caltech Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship program through the James H. Milovich SURF Fellowship.", "abstract": "The counting of votes in contemporary American elections is usually not completed on Election Night. There has been an increasing tendency for vote shares to shift toward Democratic candidates after Election Day in general elections, in particular, in recent U.S. elections. Leveraging important snapshots of precinct-level election returns and precinct-level demographic and political composition from Orange County, California, we conduct the first full-fledged analysis of the potential drivers of vote share shifts. Using an original large-scale post-election survey and unique snapshots of individual-level administrative records, we also provide the first analysis of the characteristics of voters whose ballots were tallied later versus earlier in the process. Far from being anomalous, our results indicate that the shifts are consistent with underlying precinct voter compositions and the order of precinct and mail ballot processing at the individual level in accordance with election administration practices. We find the same driving forces in North Carolina and Colorado, and discuss the consequences of the \"Blue Shift\" for public concerns about election integrity as states push policy changes regarding access to voting by mail.", "date": "2022-09", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Research Quarterly", "volume": "75", "number": "3", "publisher": "Sage Publications", "pagerange": "860-874", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20220909-232636000", "issn": "1065-9129", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20220909-232636000", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation" }, { "agency": "Caltech Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF)" } ] }, "doi": "10.1177/10659129211033340", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2022", "author_list": "Li, Yimeng; Hyun, Michelle; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/kd5sq-fnv98", "eprint_id": 113131, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 13:09:48", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 22:56:26", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Heuberger-Simon", "name": { "family": "Heuberger", "given": "Simon" } } ] }, "title": "How (Not) to Reproduce: Practical Considerations to Improve Research Transparency in Political Science", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Sociology and Political Science", "note": "\u00a9 The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association. \n\nPublished online by Cambridge University Press: 16 September 2021.\n\nSupplemental Material - S1049096521001062sup001.pdf
", "abstract": "In recent years, scholars, journals, and professional organizations in political science have been working to improve research transparency. Although better transparency is a laudable goal, the implementation of standards for reproducibility still leaves much to be desired. This article identifies two practices that political science should adopt to improve research transparency: (1) journals must provide detailed replication guidance and run provided material; and (2) authors must begin their work with replication in mind. We focus on problems that occur when scholars provide research materials to journals for replication, and we outline best practices regarding documentation and code structure for researchers to use.", "date": "2022-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "PS: Political Science & Politics", "volume": "55", "number": "1", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "149-154", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20220127-200007700", "issn": "1049-0965", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20220127-200007700", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1017/s1049096521001062", "primary_object": { "basename": "S1049096521001062sup001.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/kd5sq-fnv98/files/S1049096521001062sup001.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2022", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Heuberger, Simon" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/5nssr-tkn65", "eprint_id": 112193, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 13:02:14", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 17:51:38", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Cao-Jian", "name": { "family": "Cao", "given": "Jian" }, "orcid": "0000-0001-9266-1970" }, { "id": "Ramirez-Christina-M", "name": { "family": "Ramirez", "given": "Christina" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8435-0416" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "The politics of vaccine hesitancy in the United States", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "politics; United States; vaccine hesitancy", "note": "\u00a9 2021 by the Southwestern Social Science Association. \n\nIssue Online: 24 March 2022; Version of Record online: 24 December 2021; Manuscript accepted: 29 November 2021; Manuscript revised: 12 November 2021; Manuscript received: 10 August 2021. \n\nResearch Funding: John Randolph and Dora Haynes Foundation. Grant Number: 1377575.\n\nSubmitted - 2021.12.01.21267160v1.full.pdf
Supplemental Material - ssqu13106-sup-0001-suppmat.pdf
", "abstract": "Objective: Why are Americans COVID-19 vaccine hesitant? We test social science hypotheses for vaccine hesitancy, focusing on partisanship, trust in institutions, and social-demographic characteristics of registered voters. \n\nMethods: We use survey data from a representative sample of American registered voters collected in November 2020 to study vaccine hesitancy, and the reasons for vaccine hesitancy, at a point in time before the vaccine was available and hence show underlying responses based on beliefs and not on clinical trial data. We use multivariate logistic regression models to test hypotheses on vaccine hesitancy. \n\nResults: We find that consistently similar groups of people tend to be vaccine hesitant. Specifically, black voters, those between the ages of 45 and 64, female voters, voters without college degrees, voters not worried about the spread of COVID-19, and voters who are concerned about government and the CDC's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, were vaccine hesitant. We also provide intriguing results showing the nuanced reasons that the vaccine hesitant provide. \n\nConclusions: Our analysis allows us to establish important baseline information from a social science perspective on vaccine hesitancy at a crucial time, right before COVID-19 vaccines were beginning to be made available to adult Americans. What emerges from our analysis is a nuanced perspective on vaccine hesitancy in the United States, from this important point in the history of the COVID-19 pandemic.", "date": "2022-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Social Science Quarterly", "volume": "103", "number": "1", "publisher": "Wiley", "pagerange": "42-54", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20211203-174950438", "issn": "0038-4941", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20211203-174950438", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation", "grant_number": "1377575" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "COVID-19" } ] }, "doi": "10.1111/ssqu.13106", "primary_object": { "basename": "2021.12.01.21267160v1.full.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/5nssr-tkn65/files/2021.12.01.21267160v1.full.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "ssqu13106-sup-0001-suppmat.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/5nssr-tkn65/files/ssqu13106-sup-0001-suppmat.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2022", "author_list": "Cao, Jian; Ramirez, Christina; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/40vx3-gvw02", "eprint_id": 111576, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 11:26:25", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 19:37:59", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Katz-Gabriel", "name": { "family": "Katz", "given": "Gabriel" }, "orcid": "0000-0001-5970-2769" }, { "id": "Levin-Ines", "name": { "family": "Levin", "given": "Ines" } }, { "id": "N\u00fa\u00f1ez-Lucas", "name": { "family": "N\u00fa\u00f1ez", "given": "Lucas" }, "orcid": "0000-0001-5107-6775" } ] }, "title": "Conventional and unconventional participation in Latin America: a hierarchical latent class approach", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Latent class models; multi-level and hierarchical models", "note": "\u00a9 The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the European Political Science Association. \n\nReceived 3 June 2019; revised 20 January 2020; accepted 22 May 2020; first published online 28 September 2020.\n\nSupplemental Material - S2049847020000357sup001.pdf
", "abstract": "Building on past research, we implement a hierarchical latent class model to analyze political participation from a comparative perspective. Our methodology allows simultaneously: (i) estimating citizens' propensity to engage in conventional and unconventional modes of participation; (ii) classifying individuals into underlying \"types\" capturing within- and cross-country variations in participation; and (iii) assessing how this classification varies with micro- and macro-level factors. We apply our model to Latin American survey data. We show that our method outperforms alternative approaches used to study participation and derive typologies of political engagement. Substantively, we find that the distribution of participatory types is similar throughout the continent, and that it correlates strongly with respondents' socio-demographic characteristics and crime victimization.", "date": "2021-10", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Science Research and Methods", "volume": "9", "number": "4", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "878-888", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20211021-174259123", "issn": "2049-8470", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20211021-174259123", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1017/psrm.2020.35", "primary_object": { "basename": "S2049847020000357sup001.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/40vx3-gvw02/files/S2049847020000357sup001.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "conventional-and-unconventional-participation-in-latin-america-a-hierarchical-latent-class-approach_preprint.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/40vx3-gvw02/files/conventional-and-unconventional-participation-in-latin-america-a-hierarchical-latent-class-approach_preprint.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2021", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Katz, Gabriel; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/cesyn-tns48", "eprint_id": 110352, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 04:19:35", "lastmod": "2023-10-20 23:10:45", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Li-Yimeng", "name": { "family": "Li", "given": "Yimeng" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-3855-0756" }, { "id": "Hyun-Michelle", "name": { "family": "Hyun", "given": "Michelle" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Why Do Election Results Change after Election Day? The \"Blue Shift\" in California Elections", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "American elections, \"Blue Shift\", voting by mail", "note": "\u00a9 2021 University of Utah. \n\nFirst Published July 23, 2021. \n\nThe authors thank the Orange County Registrar of Voters, Neal Kelley, and the OCROV Operations Manager, Justin Berardino, for providing us with data used in this study. We also thank Daniel Guth and Seo-young Silvia Kim for their work on related projects. \n\nThe author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: Funding for this project came from the John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation. Hyun's work was supported by the Caltech Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship program through the James H. Milovich SURF Fellowship. \n\nThe author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.\n\nAccepted Version - why-do-election-results-change-after-election-day-the-blue-shift-in-california-elections_v2.pdf
Supplemental Material - sj-pdf-1-prq-10.1177_10659129211033340.pdf
", "abstract": "The counting of votes in contemporary American elections is usually not completed on Election Night. There has been an increasing tendency for vote shares to shift toward Democratic candidates after Election Day in general elections, in particular, in recent U.S. elections. Leveraging important snapshots of precinct-level election returns and precinct-level demographic and political composition from Orange County, California, we conduct the first full-fledged analysis of the potential drivers of vote share shifts. Using an original large-scale post-election survey and unique snapshots of individual-level administrative records, we also provide the first analysis of the characteristics of voters whose ballots were tallied later versus earlier in the process. Far from being anomalous, our results indicate that the shifts are consistent with underlying precinct voter compositions and the order of precinct and mail ballot processing at the individual level in accordance with election administration practices. We find the same driving forces in North Carolina and Colorado, and discuss the consequences of the \"Blue Shift\" for public concerns about election integrity as states push policy changes regarding access to voting by mail.", "date": "2021-08-21", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Research Quarterly", "publisher": "Sage Publications", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20210821-145040875", "issn": "1065-9129", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20210821-145040875", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation" }, { "agency": "Caltech Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF)" } ] }, "doi": "10.1177/10659129211033340", "primary_object": { "basename": "sj-pdf-1-prq-10.1177_10659129211033340.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/cesyn-tns48/files/sj-pdf-1-prq-10.1177_10659129211033340.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "why-do-election-results-change-after-election-day-the-blue-shift-in-california-elections_v2.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/cesyn-tns48/files/why-do-election-results-change-after-election-day-the-blue-shift-in-california-elections_v2.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2021", "author_list": "Li, Yimeng; Hyun, Michelle; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/aeeg5-sqp59", "eprint_id": 109034, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 04:42:10", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 17:31:30", "type": "book_section", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Srikanth-Maya", "name": { "family": "Srikanth", "given": "Maya" } }, { "id": "Liu-Anqi", "name": { "family": "Liu", "given": "Anqi" } }, { "id": "Adams-Cohen-Nicholas", "name": { "family": "Adams-Cohen", "given": "Nicholas" } }, { "id": "Cao-Jian", "name": { "family": "Cao", "given": "Jian" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Anandkumar-A", "name": { "family": "Anandkumar", "given": "Animashree" } } ] }, "title": "Dynamic Social Media Monitoring for Fast-Evolving Online Discussions", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2021 Copyright held by the owner/author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution International 4.0 License. \n\nThis work was supported in part by Oracle Cloud credits and related resources provided by the Oracle for Research program.\n\nPublished - 3447548.3467171.pdf
Submitted - 2102.12596.pdf
", "abstract": "Tracking and collecting fast-evolving online discussions provides vast data for studying social media usage and its role in people's public lives. However, collecting social media data using a static set of keywords fails to satisfy the growing need to monitor dynamic conversations and to study fast-changing topics. We propose a dynamic keyword search method to maximize the coverage of relevant information in fast-evolving online discussions. The method uses word embedding models to represent the semantic relations between keywords and predictive models to forecast the future trajectory of keywords. We also implement a visual user interface to aid in the decision making process in each round of keyword updates. This allows for both human-assisted tracking and fully-automated data collection. In simulations using historical #MeToo data in 2017, our human-assisted tracking method outperforms the traditional static baseline method significantly, achieving 37.1% improvement in F-1 score in the task of tracking the top trending keywords. We conduct a contemporary case study to cover dynamic conversations about the recent Presidential Inauguration and to test the dynamic data collection system. Our case studies reflect the effectiveness of our process and also points to the potential challenges in future deployment.", "date": "2021-08-14", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "Association for Computing Machinery", "place_of_pub": "New York, NY", "pagerange": "3576-3584", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20210510-121148191", "isbn": "978-1-4503-8332-5", "book_title": "Proceedings of the 27th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20210510-121148191", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1145/3447548.3467171", "primary_object": { "basename": "2102.12596.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/aeeg5-sqp59/files/2102.12596.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "3447548.3467171.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/aeeg5-sqp59/files/3447548.3467171.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "book_section", "pub_year": "2021", "author_list": "Srikanth, Maya; Liu, Anqi; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/sc01n-jjg39", "eprint_id": 108598, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 03:56:30", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 17:10:27", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Cao-Jian", "name": { "family": "Cao", "given": "Jian" } }, { "id": "Li-Yimeng", "name": { "family": "Li", "given": "Yimeng" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-3855-0756" } ] }, "title": "Voting Experiences, Perceptions of Fraud, and Voter Confidence", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2021 by the Southwestern Social Science Association. \n\nIssue Online: 06 October 2021; Version of Record online: 26 March 2021. \n\nWe thank the John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation for supporting our research. We also thank the Orange County Registrar of Voters, Neal Kelley and his team, for their assistance in our research.\n\nSubmitted - WP_139.pdf
Supplemental Material - ssqu12940-sup-0001-suppmat.pdf
", "abstract": "Objective: Assuring voter confidence is important for the legitimacy of democratic elections. In this article, we test four hypotheses about the correlates of voter confidence at various levels of election administration. \n\nMethods: We take advantage of a large online survey of registered voters in a single election jurisdiction, Orange County (CA), which was implemented immediately after the November 2018 midterm elections. We measure voting experience and social media usage using item response theory as well as voters' perceptions of various election or voter fraud, and estimate their association with voter confidence via logistic regression models. \n\nResults: Our results show that voters who cast mail ballots are less confident about their own votes being counted correctly than in\u2010person voters. For both types of voters, those who have poor experiences with the voting process are much less likely to report confidence in the election. We also find that voters who have strong concerns about election fraud are less likely to report being confident in the election. Our last result indicates that information from news and social media is associated with a decline in voter confidence in election administration at the national level. \n\nConclusion: Given the many conversations about election fraud that have occurred since the 2016 presidential election, this research provides important implications for election administration in future elections in the United States.", "date": "2021-07", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Social Science Quarterly", "volume": "102", "number": "4", "publisher": "Wiley", "pagerange": "1225-1238", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20210401-081645629", "issn": "0038-4941", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20210401-081645629", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John Randolph and Dora Haynes Foundation" } ] }, "other_numbering_system": { "items": [ { "id": "139", "name": "Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project" } ] }, "doi": "10.1111/ssqu.12940", "primary_object": { "basename": "WP_139.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/sc01n-jjg39/files/WP_139.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "ssqu12940-sup-0001-suppmat.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/sc01n-jjg39/files/ssqu12940-sup-0001-suppmat.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2021", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Cao, Jian; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1tj4z-pv095", "eprint_id": 109040, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 21:54:40", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 17:31:41", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Xu-Yuancheng", "name": { "family": "Xu", "given": "Yuancheng" } }, { "id": "Zafirov-Athanasse", "name": { "family": "Zafirov", "given": "Athanasse" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Kojis-Dan", "name": { "family": "Kojis", "given": "Dan" } }, { "id": "Tan-Min", "name": { "family": "Tan", "given": "Min" } }, { "id": "Ramirez-Christina-M", "name": { "family": "Ramirez", "given": "Christina M." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8435-0416" } ] }, "title": "FREEtree: A Tree-based Approach for High Dimensional Longitudinal Data With Correlated Features", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "longitudinal data, random effects, regression trees, variable selection, machine learning interpretability", "note": "Submitted - 2006.09693.pdf
", "abstract": "This paper proposes FREEtree, a tree-based method for high dimensional longitudinal data with correlated features. Popular machine learning approaches, like Random Forests, commonly used for variable selection do not perform well when there are correlated features and do not account for data observed over time. FREEtree deals with longitudinal data by using a piecewise random effects model. It also exploits the network structure of the features by first clustering them using weighted correlation network analysis, namely WGCNA. It then conducts a screening step within each cluster of features and a selection step among the surviving features, that provides a relatively unbiased way to select features. By using dominant principle components as regression variables at each leaf and the original features as splitting variables at splitting nodes, FREEtree maintains its interpretability and improves its computational efficiency. The simulation results show that FREEtree outperforms other tree-based methods in terms of prediction accuracy, feature selection accuracy, as well as the ability to recover the underlying structure.", "date": "2021-05-10", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "arXiv", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20210510-140844977", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20210510-140844977", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.2006.09693", "primary_object": { "basename": "2006.09693.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1tj4z-pv095/files/2006.09693.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2021", "author_list": "Xu, Yuancheng; Zafirov, Athanasse; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/bvaf9-jr798", "eprint_id": 99043, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 00:11:42", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 17:48:45", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kim-Seo-young Silvia", "name": { "family": "Kim", "given": "Seo-young Silvia" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8801-9210" }, { "id": "Schneider-Spencer", "name": { "family": "Schneider", "given": "Spencer" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Evaluating the Quality of Changes in Voter Registration Databases", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "voter registration data, record linkage, election integrity, election administration, data quality", "note": "\u00a9 2019 by SAGE Publications. \n\nArticle first published online: September 9, 2019; Issue published: November 1, 2020.\n\nSupplemental Material - appendix_revised_redacted.pdf
", "abstract": "The administration of elections depends crucially upon the quality and integrity of voter registration databases. In addition, political scientists are increasingly using these databases in their research. However, these databases are dynamic and may be subject to external manipulation and unintentional errors. In this article, using data from Orange County, California, we develop two methods for evaluating the quality of voter registration data as it changes over time: (a) generating audit data by repeated record linkage across periodic snapshots of a given database and monitoring it for sudden anomalous changes and (b) identifying duplicates via an efficient, automated duplicate detection, and tracking new duplicates and deduplication efforts over time. We show that the generated data can serve not only to evaluate voter file quality and election integrity but also as a novel source of data on election administration practices.", "date": "2020-11-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Politics Research", "volume": "48", "number": "6", "publisher": "SAGE Publications", "pagerange": "670-676", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20191003-092335219", "issn": "1532-673X", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20191003-092335219", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1177/1532673X19870512", "primary_object": { "basename": "appendix_revised_redacted.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/bvaf9-jr798/files/appendix_revised_redacted.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2020", "author_list": "Kim, Seo-young Silvia; Schneider, Spencer; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/kf08y-w3b30", "eprint_id": 106511, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 00:07:43", "lastmod": "2024-01-15 18:14:39", "type": "book", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Adams-Cohen-N-J", "name": { "family": "Adams-Cohen", "given": "Nicholas" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-2251-1744" }, { "id": "Kim-Seo-young Silvia", "name": { "family": "Kim", "given": "Seo-young Silvia" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8801-9210" }, { "id": "Li-Yimeng", "name": { "family": "Li", "given": "Yimeng" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-3855-0756" } ] }, "title": "Securing American Elections: How Data-Driven Election Monitoring Can Improve Our Democracy", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "election security, election audits, election fraud, voter registration, social media, survey methodology, voter confidence", "note": "\u00a9 2020 R. Michael Alvarez, Nicholas Adams-Cohen, Seo-young Silvia Kim, and Yimeng Li. \n\nOnline publication date: November 2020. \n\nA project like this cannot be successfully conducted without a lot of advice, input, and assistance. First of all, we thank Neal Kelley, the Orange County Registrar of Voters, for his collaboration with us on this project. Neal's advice, enthusiasm, and interest in using data to improve the election process in Orange County provided the foundation for our project. Working with academic researchers is not easy, and Neal's willingness to collaborate with us, his patience with our requests, and his comments and critiques of our work, were important for our success. We also thank Justin Berardino of the OCROV for his help \u2013 Justin, the OCROV's Operations Manager, played a crucial role in helping us with data and information about elections in Orange County. \n\nSecond, we thank the John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation, which provided funding for this project. The mission of the Haynes Foundation is to support social science research, especially in Southern California. They have long provided financial support for research that seeks to improve a social scientific understanding of California's unique democracy, and we hope that our research reported in this Element contributes to that same understanding. \n\nThird, a number of people have helped us with this research project. Sabrina Hameister at Caltech assisted with project logistics, and we could not have easily run this project without her help. A number of Caltech students participated in this research project, and we thank them for their assistance: Jack Briones, Ethan Eason, Daniel Guth, Claire Ho, Joanna Huey, Michelle Hyun, Cheria Jia, Nailen Matschke, Matt Riker, and Spencer Schneider. Academic colleagues provided comments and advice at various stages in this project, and we thank Lonna Atkeson, Paul Gronke, Thad Hall, Jonathan Katz, Ines Levin, Paul Manson, and Charles Stewart for their support and advice. \n\nSome of the research reported here has been presented at research conferences and workshops, especially our work on voter registration database auditing: We thank participants at the 2018 Southern California Methods Conference (especially Steven Liao), and Election Audit Summit held at MIT, December 7\u20138, 2018. The registration auditing project was also presented at the 2019 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, the Election Sciences, Reform, and Administration 2019 conference, and the 2019 Annual Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology \u2013 we thank participants from those conferences for their comments and questions. We presented some of the material from this project at the \"Election Administration and Technology Symposium,\" hosted by the Bedrosian Center at the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy; we thank Jeff Jenkins for inviting us, and for hosting the symposium, and of course we thank the symposium participants for their comments on our work. \n\nFinally, code and data from our research are available on our project's GitHub (https://github.com/monitoringtheelection). Due to the ongoing nature of this project, and the sensitive nature of some of the data, only certain datasets and code will be available on the GitHub. Researchers who are interested in data or code that is not on the project GitHub are encouraged to contact the authors.", "abstract": "The integrity of democratic elections, both in the United States and abroad, is an important problem. In this Element, we present a data-driven approach that evaluates the performance of the administration of a democratic election, before, during, and after Election Day. We show that this data-driven method can help to improve confidence in the integrity of American elections.", "date": "2020-11", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "place_of_pub": "Cambridge", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20201109-122636056", "isbn": "9781108887359", "book_title": "Securing American Elections: How Data-Driven Election Monitoring Can Improve Our Democracy", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20201109-122636056", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation" } ] }, "contributors": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" } }, { "id": "Bacchus-E-B", "name": { "family": "Bacchus", "given": "Emily Beaulieu" } }, { "id": "Stewart-C-III", "name": { "family": "Stewart", "given": "Charles, III" } } ] }, "doi": "10.1017/9781108887359", "resource_type": "book", "pub_year": "2020", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Adams-Cohen, Nicholas; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/qmwrd-52g11", "eprint_id": 104196, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 22:16:31", "lastmod": "2023-10-20 22:49:42", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Lin-Chujun", "name": { "family": "Lin", "given": "Chujun" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-7605-6508" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Personality traits are directly associated with anti-black prejudice in the United States", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2020 Lin, Alvarez. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. \n\nReceived: January 24, 2020; Accepted: June 15, 2020; Published: July 1, 2020. \n\nEditor: Shang E. Ha, Sogang University (South Korea), Republic of Korea. \n\nData Availability Statement: https://osf.io/zhtvf/?\nview_only=134010a7a05e4d0ab8cbd6b2927f98eb. \n\nThe authors received no specific funding for this work.\n\nThe authors have declared that no competing interests exist. \n\nAuthor Contributions:\nConceptualization: Chujun Lin, R. Michael Alvarez.\nFormal analysis: Chujun Lin.\nMethodology: Chujun Lin, R. Michael Alvarez.\nProject administration: R. Michael Alvarez.\nSupervision: R. Michael Alvarez.\nWriting \u2013 original draft: Chujun Lin.\nWriting \u2013 review & editing: Chujun Lin, R. Michael Alvarez.\n\nPublished - journal.pone.0235436.pdf
Supplemental Material - journal.pone.0235436.s001.docx
Supplemental Material - journal.pone.0235436.s002.docx
Supplemental Material - journal.pone.0235436.s003.docx
", "abstract": "Modern psychological theories postulate that individual differences in prejudice are determined by social and ideological attitudes instead of personality. For example, the dual-process motivational (DPM) model argues that personality does not directly associate with prejudice when controlling for the attitudinal variables that capture the authoritarian-conservatism motivation and the dominance motivation. Previous studies testing the DPM model largely relied on convenience samples and/or European samples, and have produced inconsistent results. Here we examined the extent to which anti-black prejudice was associated with the Big Five personality traits and social and ideological attitudes (authoritarianism, social dominance orientation, political party affiliation) in two large probability samples of the general population (N\u2081 = 3,132; N\u2082 = 2,483) from the American National Election Studies (ANES). We performed structural equation modeling (SEM) to test the causal assumptions between the latent variables and used survey weights to generate estimates that were representative of the population. Different from prior theories, across both datasets we found that two personality traits, agreeableness and conscientiousness, were directly associated with anti-black prejudice when controlling for authoritarianism, social dominance orientation, and political party affiliation. We also found that a substantial part of the associations between personality traits and anti-black prejudice were mediated through those social and ideological attitudes, which might serve as candidates for prejudice-reduction interventions in the real world.", "date": "2020-07-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "PLoS ONE", "volume": "15", "number": "7", "publisher": "Public Library of Science", "pagerange": "Art. No. e0235436", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20200701-154549328", "issn": "1932-6203", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200701-154549328", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0235436", "primary_object": { "basename": "journal.pone.0235436.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/qmwrd-52g11/files/journal.pone.0235436.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "journal.pone.0235436.s001.docx", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/qmwrd-52g11/files/journal.pone.0235436.s001.docx" }, { "basename": "journal.pone.0235436.s002.docx", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/qmwrd-52g11/files/journal.pone.0235436.s002.docx" }, { "basename": "journal.pone.0235436.s003.docx", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/qmwrd-52g11/files/journal.pone.0235436.s003.docx" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2020", "author_list": "Lin, Chujun and Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/yd49v-s1370", "eprint_id": 103993, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 21:39:03", "lastmod": "2023-10-20 18:58:48", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Stein-Robert-M", "name": { "family": "Stein", "given": "Robert M." } }, { "name": { "family": "Mann", "given": "Christopher" } }, { "name": { "family": "Stewart", "given": "Charles" } }, { "name": { "family": "Birenbaum", "given": "Zachary" } }, { "name": { "family": "Fung", "given": "Anson" } }, { "name": { "family": "Greenberg", "given": "Jed" } }, { "name": { "family": "Kawsar", "given": "Farhan" } }, { "name": { "family": "Alberda", "given": "Gayle" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "name": { "family": "Atkeson", "given": "Lonna" } }, { "name": { "family": "Beaulieu", "given": "Emily" } }, { "name": { "family": "Birkhead", "given": "Nathaniel A." } }, { "name": { "family": "Boehmke", "given": "Frederick J." } }, { "name": { "family": "Boston", "given": "Joshua" } }, { "name": { "family": "Burden", "given": "Barry C." } }, { "name": { "family": "Cantu", "given": "Francisco" } }, { "name": { "family": "Cobb", "given": "Rachael" } }, { "name": { "family": "Darmofal", "given": "David" } }, { "name": { "family": "Ellington", "given": "Thomas C." } }, { "name": { "family": "Fine", "given": "Terri Susan" } }, { "name": { "family": "Finocchiaro", "given": "Charles J." } }, { "name": { "family": "Gilbert", "given": "Michael D." } }, { "name": { "family": "Haynes", "given": "Victor" } }, { "name": { "family": "Janssen", "given": "Brian" } }, { "name": { "family": "Kimball", "given": "David" } }, { "name": { "family": "Kromkowski", "given": "Charles" } }, { "name": { "family": "Llaudet", "given": "Elena" } }, { "name": { "family": "Mayer", "given": "Kenneth R." } }, { "name": { "family": "Miles", "given": "Matthew R." } }, { "name": { "family": "Miller", "given": "David" } }, { "name": { "family": "Nielson", "given": "Lindsay" } }, { "name": { "family": "Ouyang", "given": "Yu" } }, { "name": { "family": "Panagopoulos", "given": "Costas" } }, { "name": { "family": "Reeves", "given": "Andrew" } }, { "name": { "family": "Seo", "given": "Min Hee" } }, { "name": { "family": "Simmons", "given": "Haley" } }, { "name": { "family": "Smidt", "given": "Corwin" } }, { "name": { "family": "Stone", "given": "Farrah M." } }, { "name": { "family": "VanSickle-Ward", "given": "Rachel" } }, { "name": { "family": "Victor", "given": "Jennifer Nicoll" } }, { "name": { "family": "Wood", "given": "Abby" } }, { "name": { "family": "Wronski", "given": "Julie" } } ] }, "title": "Waiting to Vote in the 2016 Presidential Election: Evidence from a Multi-county Study", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "election administration, voting behavior, polling place operations", "note": "\u00a9 2019 University of Utah. \n\nSupport for this research was provided by the Democracy Fund. \n\nThe author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.", "abstract": "This paper is the result of a nationwide study of polling place dynamics in the 2016 presidential election. Research teams, recruited from local colleges and universities and located in twenty-eight election jurisdictions across the United States, observed and timed voters as they entered the queue at their respective polling places and then voted. We report results about four specific polling place operations and practices: the length of the check-in line, the number of voters leaving the check-in line once they have joined it, the time for a voter to check in to vote (i.e., verify voter's identification and obtain a ballot), and the time to complete a ballot. Long lines, waiting times, and times to vote are closely related to time of day (mornings are busiest for polling places). We found the recent adoption of photographic voter identification (ID) requirements to have a disparate effect on the time to check in among white and nonwhite polling places. In majority-white polling places, scanning a voter's driver's license speeds up the check-in process. In majority nonwhite polling locations, the effect of strict voter ID requirements increases time to check in, albeit modestly.", "date": "2020-06", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Research Quarterly", "volume": "73", "number": "2", "publisher": "Sage Publications", "pagerange": "439-453", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20200624-104210980", "issn": "1065-9129", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200624-104210980", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Democracy fund" } ] }, "doi": "10.1177/1065912919832374", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2020", "author_list": "Stein, Robert M.; Mann, Christopher; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/vxg86-ydj89", "eprint_id": 103463, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 21:32:25", "lastmod": "2023-12-22 23:31:42", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Cohen-Bruce-N", "name": { "family": "Cohen", "given": "Bruce N." } }, { "id": "Nichols-Aaron-L", "name": { "family": "Nichols", "given": "Aaron L." }, "orcid": "0000-0001-9341-0049" }, { "id": "Grant-Stephen", "name": { "family": "Grant", "given": "Stephen" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-0923-8886" }, { "id": "Blumenfeld-Zachary", "name": { "family": "Blumenfeld", "given": "Zach" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-4627-5582" }, { "id": "Dougherty-D-A", "name": { "family": "Dougherty", "given": "Dennis A." }, "orcid": "0000-0003-1464-2461" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Ritz-Beate", "name": { "family": "Ritz", "given": "Beate" }, "orcid": "0000-0001-6976-7339" }, { "id": "Lester-H-A", "name": { "family": "Lester", "given": "Henry A." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-5470-5255" } ] }, "title": "Successful Cessation Programs that Reduce Comorbidity May Explain Surprisingly Low Smoking Rates Among Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Open Access | CC-BY\n\nWe thank Michael H. Kanter (Kaiser Permanente Medical School) and Nora Volkow (NIDA) for comments and suggestions.\n\nSubmitted - Causality_vs_Correlation_Smoking_in_COVID19_v10.5_BNC_5_22_2020.pdf
", "abstract": "A recent, non-peer-reviewed meta-analysis suggests that smoking may reduce the risk of hospitalization with COVID-19 because the prevalence of smoking among hospitalized COVID-19 is less than that of the general population. However, there are alternative explanations for this phenomena based on (1) the failure to report, or accurately record, smoking history during emergency hospital admissions and (2) a pre-disposition to avoid smoking among COVID-19 patients with tobacco-related comorbidities (a type of \"reverse\" causation). For example, urine testing of hospitalized patients in Australia for cotinine showed that smokers were under-counted by 37% because incoming patients failed to inform staff about their smoking behavior. Face-to-face interviews can introduce bias into the responses to attitudinal and behavioral questions not present in the self-completion interviews typically used to measure smoking prevalence in the general population. Subjects in face-to-face interviews may be unwilling to admit socially undesirable behavior and attitudes under direct questioning. Reverse causation may also contribute to the difference between smoking prevalence in the COVID-19 and general population. Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 may be simply less prone to use tobacco than the general population. A potentially robust \"reverse causation\" hypothesis for reduced prevalence of smokers in the COVID-19 population is the enrichment of patients in that population with serious comorbidities that motivates them to quit smoking. We judge that this \"smoking cessation\" mechanism may account for a significant fraction of the reduced prevalence of smokers in the COVID-19 population. Testing this hypothesis will require a focused research program.", "date": "2020-05-26", "date_type": "published", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20200526-135356434", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200526-135356434", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "COVID-19" }, { "id": "Division-of-Biology-and-Biological-Engineering" } ] }, "doi": "10.32388/WURFH0", "primary_object": { "basename": "Causality_vs_Correlation_Smoking_in_COVID19_v10.5_BNC_5_22_2020.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/vxg86-ydj89/files/Causality_vs_Correlation_Smoking_in_COVID19_v10.5_BNC_5_22_2020.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2020", "author_list": "Cohen, Bruce N.; Nichols, Aaron L.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/05xjn-5an15", "eprint_id": 109048, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 21:21:42", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 17:31:51", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Cao-Jian", "name": { "family": "Cao", "given": "Jian" } }, { "id": "Adams-Cohen-Nicholas-J", "name": { "family": "Adams-Cohen", "given": "Nicholas" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-2251-1744" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Reliable and Efficient Long-Term Social Media Monitoring", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Social media, Cloud computing, Twitter, Time series", "note": "We thank the John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation for supporting some of this research. We received support for our use of Google Cloud Platform through Google's COVID-19 research program. We also thank Anima Anandkumar and Anqi Liu for their work with us on related projects.\n\nSubmitted - 2005.02442.pdf
", "abstract": "Social media data is now widely used by many academic researchers. However, long-term social media data collection projects, which most typically involve collecting data from public-use APIs, often encounter issues when relying on local-area network servers (LANs) to collect high-volume streaming social media data over long periods of time. In this technical report, we present a cloud-based data collection, pre-processing, and archiving infrastructure, and argue that this system mitigates or resolves the problems most typically encountered when running social media data collection projects on LANs at minimal cloud-computing costs. We show how this approach works in different cloud computing architectures, and how to adapt the method to collect streaming data from other social media platforms.", "date": "2020-05-05", "date_type": "published", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20210510-141337458", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20210510-141337458", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation" }, { "agency": "Google Cloud Platform" } ] }, "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.2005.02442", "primary_object": { "basename": "2005.02442.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/05xjn-5an15/files/2005.02442.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2020", "author_list": "Cao, Jian; Adams-Cohen, Nicholas; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ntns4-0wt96", "eprint_id": 102141, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 07:16:34", "lastmod": "2023-10-19 23:53:09", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Pettigrew-S-S", "name": { "family": "Pettigrew", "given": "Stephen S." } }, { "id": "Stewart-C-III", "name": { "family": "Stewart", "given": "Charles, III" } }, { "id": "Wimpy-C", "name": { "family": "Wimpy", "given": "Cameron" } } ] }, "title": "Residual Votes and Abstentions in the 2016 Election", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "residual vote rate, elections, 2016 election, lost votes, nevada", "note": "Date Written: January 1, 2018. Posted: 16 August 2018. \n\nPrepared for presentation at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, Louisiana, January 4-6, 2018.\n\nSubmitted - SSRN-id3225197.pdf
", "abstract": "This paper provides a preliminary analysis of the increase in the residual vote rate from 2012 to 2016, when it increased from 0.99% to 1.87% nationwide. It is reasonable to assume that this spike in the residual vote rate is due to a rise in abstentions. However, there are currently other trends in election administration, such as an increasing reliance on vote-by-mail, that could also be driving up the residual vote rate. And, even if the recent up-tick in the residual vote rate is primarily due to an increase in abstentions in 2016, it is not a priori obvious that the source of new abstentions was equally distributed among disaffected Democrats and Republicans. The analysis in this paper relies on a combination of public opinion data and election returns to address these issues. We find, first, that the increase in abstentions in 2016 was most likely due to disaffected Republicans, rather than an across-the-board phenomenon. We also confirm that the increase in the 2016 residual vote rate was not due to changes in voting technologies between 2012 and 2016. We address three issues in the conclusion that this analysis raises: (1) the potential for the growth of protest voting in the U.S., (2) the likelihood that there is a significant under-reporting of voter abstentions in public opinion surveys, leaving a role for aggregate analysis to study this phenomenon, and (3) cautions about the use of the residual vote rate as a metric to gauge the accuracy of voting technologies.", "date": "2020-03-27", "date_type": "published", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20200327-091952179", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200327-091952179", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.2139/ssrn.3225197", "primary_object": { "basename": "SSRN-id3225197.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ntns4-0wt96/files/SSRN-id3225197.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2020", "author_list": "Alvarez, Michael; Pettigrew, Stephen S.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ppvt7-8p936", "eprint_id": 102117, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 20:38:06", "lastmod": "2023-10-19 23:51:47", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Abrajanoa-M-A", "name": { "family": "Abrajanoa", "given": "Marisa" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Why are Latinos More Politically Trusting than Other Americans?", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "political trust, voting, Latinos", "note": "Date Written: July 20, 2007; Posted: 29 Sep 2007. \n\nAbrajano would like to thank Zoltan Hajnal, Thad Kousser, Gerry Mackie, and Megumi Naoi for their comments and suggestions.\n\nSubmitted - SSRN-id1017861.pdf
", "abstract": "This paper examines why Latinos, over the past thirty years, are consistently more trusting of the federal government than are Anglos and Blacks. We address this puzzle by turning to previous research on racial politics and political trust. Consistent with previous research, discrimination and generational status are important predictors of Latinos' levels of political trust, with first generation Latinos more trusting than later generation Latinos. Encounters with racial discrimination also make Latinos and Blacks less trusting of government. In contrast, Anglos' levels of political trust can be explained by their economic evaluations as well as their partisanship. While these findings are insightful, they do not directly address why inter-group differences arise when it comes to their trust in government. We argue that, combined with generational distinctions amongst Latinos in their levels of trust, the heavy flow of Latino immigration in the past thirty years has changed the Latino population in such a way that the views of the foreign-born are disproportionately represented in survey questions related to trust in government. This is producing a Latino population that is more inclined to trust government than Anglos or Blacks. We then examine the impact of political trust on individuals' opinions towards redistributive policies. Political trust has a strong and positive effect on Latinos' attitudes towards such policies. These findings have important implications for the future of public opinion and redistributive policy-making in the U.S.", "date": "2020-03-27", "date_type": "published", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20200326-085142354", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200326-085142354", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.2139/ssrn.1017861", "primary_object": { "basename": "SSRN-id1017861.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ppvt7-8p936/files/SSRN-id1017861.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2020", "author_list": "Abrajanoa, Marisa and Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ym6jm-aqy56", "eprint_id": 100573, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 20:10:09", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 21:02:35", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Stewart-C-III", "name": { "family": "Stewart", "given": "Charles, III" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Pettigrew-S-S", "name": { "family": "Pettigrew", "given": "Stephen S." } }, { "id": "Wimpy-C", "name": { "family": "Wimpy", "given": "Cameron" } } ] }, "title": "Abstention, Protest, and Residual Votes in the 2016 Election", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2019 by the Southwestern Social Science Association. \n\nIssue Online: 24 March 2020; Version of Record online: 23 December 2019.\n\nAccepted Version - SSRN-id3498612.pdf
Supplemental Material - ssqu12757-sup-0001-suppmat.docx
", "abstract": "Objective: We analyze the significant increase in the residual vote rate in the 2016 presidential election. The residual vote rate, which is the percentage of ballots cast in a presidential election that contain no vote for president, rose nationwide from 0.99 to 1.41 percent between 2012 and 2016. \n\nMethod: We use election return data and public opinion data to examine why the residual vote rate increased in 2016. \n\nResults: The primary explanation for this rise is an increase in abstentions, which we argue results primarily from disaffected Republican voters rather than alienated Democratic voters. In addition, other factors related to election administration and electoral competition explain variation in the residual vote rates across states, particularly the use of mail/absentee ballots and the lack of competition at the top of the ticket in nonbattleground states. However, we note that the rise in the residual vote rate was not due to changes in voting technologies. \n\nConclusion: Our research has implications for the use of the residual vote as a metric for studying election administration and voting technologies.", "date": "2020-03", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Social Science Quarterly", "volume": "101", "number": "2", "publisher": "Wiley", "pagerange": "925-939", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20200109-081757732", "issn": "0038-4941", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200109-081757732", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1111/ssqu.12757", "primary_object": { "basename": "SSRN-id3498612.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ym6jm-aqy56/files/SSRN-id3498612.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "ssqu12757-sup-0001-suppmat.docx", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ym6jm-aqy56/files/ssqu12757-sup-0001-suppmat.docx" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2020", "author_list": "Stewart, Charles, III; Alvarez, R. Michael; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/fq0h7-jsx66", "eprint_id": 102419, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 20:20:43", "lastmod": "2023-10-20 00:11:20", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kim-Seo\u2010young Silvia", "name": { "family": "Kim", "given": "Seo\u2010young Silvia" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8801-9210" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Ramirez-C-M", "name": { "family": "Ramirez", "given": "Christina M." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8435-0416" } ] }, "title": "Who Voted in 2016? Using Fuzzy Forests to Understand Voter Turnout", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2020 by the Southwestern Social Science Association. \n\nIssue Online: 24 March 2020; Version of Record online: 16 February 2020. \n\nAn earlier version of this paper was presented as a poster\nat the Polmeth 2018 conference; we thank conference participants for their comments and suggestions.\n\nSubmitted - who-voted-in-2016-using-fuzzy-forests-to-understand-voter-turnout.pdf
Supplemental Material - ssqu12777-sup-0001-suppmat.zip
", "abstract": "Objective: What can machine learning tell us about who voted in 2016? There are numerous competing voter turnout theories, and a large number of covariates are required to assess which theory best explains turnout. This article is a proof of concept that machine learning can help overcome this curse of dimensionality and reveal important insights in studies of political phenomena. \n\nMethods: We use fuzzy forests, an extension of random forests, to screen variables for a parsimonious but accurate prediction. Fuzzy forests achieve accurate variable importance measures in the face of high\u2010dimensional and highly correlated data. The data that we use are from the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study. \n\nResults: Fuzzy forests chose only a small number of covariates as major correlates of 2016 turnout and still boasted high predictive performance. \n\nConclusion: Our analysis provides three important conclusions about turnout in 2016: registration and voting procedures were important, political issues were important (especially Obamacare, climate change, and fiscal policy), but few demographic variables other than age were strongly associated with turnout. We conclude that fuzzy forests is an important methodology for studying overdetermined questions in social sciences.", "date": "2020-03", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Social Science Quarterly", "volume": "101", "number": "2", "publisher": "Wiley", "pagerange": "978-988", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20200409-072456874", "issn": "0038-4941", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200409-072456874", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1111/ssqu.12777", "primary_object": { "basename": "ssqu12777-sup-0001-suppmat.zip", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/fq0h7-jsx66/files/ssqu12777-sup-0001-suppmat.zip" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "who-voted-in-2016-using-fuzzy-forests-to-understand-voter-turnout.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/fq0h7-jsx66/files/who-voted-in-2016-using-fuzzy-forests-to-understand-voter-turnout.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2020", "author_list": "Kim, Seo\u2010young Silvia; Alvarez, R. Michael; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/pvv8e-ae423", "eprint_id": 100572, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 03:33:19", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 21:02:32", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Katz-J-N", "name": { "family": "Katz", "given": "Jonathan N." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-5287-3503" }, { "id": "Kim-Seo-young Silvia", "name": { "family": "Kim", "given": "Seo-young Silvia" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8801-9210" } ] }, "title": "Hidden Donors: The Censoring Problem in U.S. Federal Campaign Finance Data", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "campaign finance; small donors; 2016 election; data censoring; presidential campaigns", "note": "Submission History: Jan 06, 2020 Version 1. \n\nAn earlier version of this paper was presented as a poster at the Polmeth 2017 and MPSA 2018 conferences; we thank participants for their comments and suggestions.\n\nSubmitted - hidden-donors-the-censoring-problem-in-u-s-federal-campaign-finance-data.pdf
", "abstract": "Inferences about individual campaign contributors are limited by how the Federal Election Commission collects and reports data. Only transactions that exceed a cycle-to-date total of $200 are individually disclosed, so that contributions of many donors are unobserved. We contrast visible and \"hidden\" donors, i.e., small donors who are invisible due to censoring\u2014and routinely ignored in existing research. We use the Sanders presidential campaign in 2016, whose unique campaign structure received money only through an intermediary/conduit committee. These are governed by stricter disclosure statutes, allowing us to study donors who are normally hidden. For Sanders, there were seven hidden donors for every visible donor, and altogether, hidden donors were responsible for 33.8% of Sanders' campaign funds. We show that hidden donors start giving relatively later, with contributions concentrated around early primaries. We suggest that as presidential campaign strategies change towards wooing smaller donors, more research on what motivates them is necessary.", "date": "2020-01-09", "date_type": "published", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20200109-081212045", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200109-081212045", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.33774/apsa-2020-sdjkp", "primary_object": { "basename": "hidden-donors-the-censoring-problem-in-u-s-federal-campaign-finance-data.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/pvv8e-ae423/files/hidden-donors-the-censoring-problem-in-u-s-federal-campaign-finance-data.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2020", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Katz, Jonathan N.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/rvdg2-ssy14", "eprint_id": 100567, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 18:43:21", "lastmod": "2023-10-20 22:10:58", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Liu-Anqi", "name": { "family": "Liu", "given": "Anqi" } }, { "id": "Srikanth-Maya", "name": { "family": "Srikanth", "given": "Maya" } }, { "id": "Adams-Cohen-Nicholas-J", "name": { "family": "Adams-Cohen", "given": "Nicholas" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-2251-1744" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Anandkumar-A", "name": { "family": "Anandkumar", "given": "Anima" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-6974-6797" } ] }, "title": "Finding Social Media Trolls: Dynamic Keyword Selection Methods for Rapidly-Evolving Online Debates", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Alvarez thanks the John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes for supporting his research in this area. \n\nProf. Anandkumar is supported by Bren endowed Chair, faculty awards from Microsoft, Google, and Adobe, DARPA PAI and LwLL grants. Anqi Liu is a PIMCO postdoctoral fellow at Caltech. \n\nCodes Repository: The codes used for generating results in this paper can be accessed from the link:\nhttps://github.com/mayasrikanth/TwitterStudiesCode.\n\nSubmitted - 1911.05332.pdf
", "abstract": "Online harassment is a significant social problem. Prevention of online harassment requires rapid detection of harassing, offensive, and negative social media posts. In this paper, we propose the use of word embedding models to identify offensive and harassing social media messages in two aspects: detecting fast-changing topics for more effective data collection and representing word semantics in different domains. We demonstrate with preliminary results that using the GloVe (Global Vectors for Word Representation) model facilitates the discovery of new and relevant keywords to use for data collection and trolling detection. Our paper concludes with a discussion of a research agenda to further develop and test word embedding models for identification of social media harassment and trolling.", "date": "2020-01-08", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "arXiv", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20200108-154406622", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200108-154406622", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Bren Professor of Computing and Mathematical Sciences" }, { "agency": "Microsoft" }, { "agency": "Google" }, { "agency": "Adobe" }, { "agency": "Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)" }, { "agency": "Caltech PIMCO Graduate Fellowship" } ] }, "doi": "10.48550/arXiv.1911.05332", "primary_object": { "basename": "1911.05332.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/rvdg2-ssy14/files/1911.05332.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2020", "author_list": "Liu, Anqi; Srikanth, Maya; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/gmkat-nhs16", "eprint_id": 99667, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 18:40:11", "lastmod": "2023-10-20 22:10:48", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Ramirez-Christina-M", "name": { "family": "Ramirez", "given": "Christina M." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8435-0416" }, { "id": "Abrajanoa-Marisa-A", "name": { "family": "Abrajanoa", "given": "Marisa A." } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Using Machine Learning to Uncover Hidden Heterogeneities in Survey Data", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2019 The Author(s). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. \n\nReceived 13 December 2018; Accepted 07 October 2019; Published 05 November 2019. \n\nData availability: The data are available at the CHIS website http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/chis/data/Pages/GetCHISData.aspx. The code required for replicating the results reported in this paper is available at: https://github.com/OHDSI/FuzzyForest. \n\nAn earlier version of this research was presented as a poster at the 33rd Annual Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, July 21\u201323, 2016, Rice University; we thank meeting participants for their comments and feedback. This work was partially funded by NSF IIS 1251151. \n\nAuthor Contributions: C.M.R., M.A.A. and R.M.A. conceived the research. C.M.R. and R.M.A. obtained and recoded the data. C.M.R. undertook the analysis. C.M.R., M.A.A. and R.M.A. wrote the paper. All authors reviewed the manuscript. \n\nThe authors declare no competing interests.\n\nPublished - s41598-019-51862-x.pdf
Supplemental Material - 41598_2019_51862_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
", "abstract": "Survey responses in public health surveys are heterogeneous. The quality of a respondent's answers depends on many factors, including cognitive abilities, interview context, and whether the interview is in person or self-administered. A largely unexplored issue is how the language used for public health survey interviews is associated with the survey response. We introduce a machine learning approach, Fuzzy Forests, which we use for model selection. We use the 2013 California Health Interview Survey (CHIS) as our training sample and the 2014 CHIS as the test sample. We found that non-English language survey responses differ substantially from English responses in reported health outcomes. We also found heterogeneity among the Asian languages suggesting that caution should be used when interpreting results that compare across these languages. The 2013 Fuzzy Forests model also correctly predicted 86% of good health outcomes using 2014 data as the test set. We show that the Fuzzy Forests methodology is potentially useful for screening for and understanding other types of survey response heterogeneity. This is especially true in high-dimensional and complex surveys.", "date": "2019-11-05", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Scientific Reports", "volume": "9", "publisher": "Nature Publishing Group", "pagerange": "Art. No. 16061", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20191105-101044547", "issn": "2045-2322", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20191105-101044547", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "IIS-1251151" } ] }, "doi": "10.1038/s41598-019-51862-x", "pmcid": "PMC6831673", "primary_object": { "basename": "s41598-019-51862-x.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/gmkat-nhs16/files/s41598-019-51862-x.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "41598_2019_51862_MOESM1_ESM.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/gmkat-nhs16/files/41598_2019_51862_MOESM1_ESM.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2019", "author_list": "Ramirez, Christina M.; Abrajanoa, Marisa A.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/h51ym-s1g08", "eprint_id": 99672, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 18:23:50", "lastmod": "2023-10-20 22:12:14", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Zhang-Mali", "name": { "family": "Zhang", "given": "Mali" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Levin-I", "name": { "family": "Levin", "given": "Ines" } } ] }, "title": "Election forensics: Using machine learning and synthetic data for possible election anomaly detection", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2019 Zhang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. \n\nReceived: February 13, 2019; Accepted: September 30, 2019; Published: October 31, 2019. \n\nThe authors thank Lucas N\u00fa\u00f1ez and Julia Pomares for their work on related projects. \n\nData Availability: The replication materials have been deposited in Dataverse (https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/YZRJWD), and the documentation for the replication materials contains relevant information for accessing the original data. The electoral data used in the paper were obtained from Datos Argentina, the official Argentina government open data site. Official demographic statistics were downloaded from the website of the National Institute of Statistics and Census of Argentina (INDEC). \n\nAlvarez thanks the John and Dora Haynes Foundation for supporting his research in this area. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. \n\nThe authors have declared that no competing interests exist.\n\nPublished - journal.pone.0223950.pdf
Supplemental Material - pone.0223950.s001.pdf
", "abstract": "Assuring election integrity is essential for the legitimacy of elected representative democratic government. Until recently, other than in-person election observation, there have been few quantitative methods for determining the integrity of a democratic election. Here we present a machine learning methodology for identifying polling places at risk of election fraud and estimating the extent of potential electoral manipulation, using synthetic training data. We apply this methodology to mesa-level data from Argentina's 2015 national elections.", "date": "2019-10-31", "date_type": "published", "publication": "PLoS ONE", "volume": "14", "number": "10", "publisher": "Public Library of Science", "pagerange": "Art. No. e0223950", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20191105-103337302", "issn": "1932-6203", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20191105-103337302", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John and Dora Haynes Foundation" } ] }, "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0223950", "pmcid": "PMC6822750", "primary_object": { "basename": "journal.pone.0223950.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/h51ym-s1g08/files/journal.pone.0223950.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "pone.0223950.s001.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/h51ym-s1g08/files/pone.0223950.s001.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2019", "author_list": "Zhang, Mali; Alvarez, R. Michael; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/gm3y7-qwd03", "eprint_id": 99415, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 05:58:58", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 22:00:56", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Canon-David-T", "name": { "family": "Canon", "given": "David T." } }, { "id": "Sellers-Patrick", "name": { "family": "Sellers", "given": "Patrick" } } ] }, "title": "The Impact of Primaries on General Election Outcomes in the U.S. House and Senate", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Accepted Version - sswp932.pdf
", "abstract": "Theory: We draw on established theories concerning strategic politicians, political learning, and political campaigning to challenge the conventional wisdom that divisive primaries diminish a nominee's chances of winning the general election. We use the concept of \"political Darwinism\" and introduce three new types of variables that move beyond the unidimensional focus of the impact of primary vote margins on general election outcomes.\n\nHypotheses: Primary vote margins have no independent impact on general election outcomes, instead, campaign spending in the primary, the mediating impact of time, and the size of the challenger pool are expected to have explanatory power.\n\nMethods: Regression analysis of all House and Senate incumbent elections from 1974-1988.\nResults: Challengers largely benefit from contested primaries. The challenger who survives a tough primary will be the best campaigner and will have benefitted from the publicity that such a victory may provide. Incumbents, on the other hand, are hurt by the occasional divisiveness that they might face. Furthermore, late primaries tend to strengthen the positive effects of primary elections for challengers and weaken the negative effects for incumbents.", "date": "2019-10-23", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20191023-145102082", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20191023-145102082", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/gm3y7-qwd03", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp932.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/gm3y7-qwd03/files/sswp932.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2019", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Canon, David T.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/11550-mbc05", "eprint_id": 97402, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 16:32:38", "lastmod": "2023-10-20 22:18:46", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Pianzola-J", "name": { "family": "Pianzola", "given": "Jo\u00eblle" } }, { "id": "Trechsel-A-H", "name": { "family": "Trechsel", "given": "Alexander H." } }, { "id": "Vassil-K", "name": { "family": "Vassil", "given": "Kristjan" } }, { "id": "Schwerdt-G", "name": { "family": "Schwerdt", "given": "Guido" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Impact of Personalized Information on Vote Intention: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "field experiment, voting advice application, election campaign, political behavior, Switzerland", "note": "\u00a9 2019 by the Southern Political Science Association. \n\nPublished online April 23, 2019. \n\nWe would like to thank the following institutions that supported this research by giving us the time to work on the project, access to data, and financial support for participating in conferences and meetings: Swiss Graduate School of Public Administration (University of Lausanne), the Politools team, NCCR Democracy (University of Zurich), Swiss Chair on Federalism and Democracy at the Department of Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence (financed by the Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation), European Union Democracy Observatory at the Robert Schuman Center for Advanced Studies at the EUI, smartvote, University of Zurich, ETH Zurich, University of Bern, and University of Lucerne. We also thank the participants of the panel on Technology, Elections and Politics in the Western Political Science Association Annual Meeting 2013 in Hollywood, CA, as well as the seminar participants at the Ifo Institute in Munich and the University of Konstanz. Finally, we would like to thank Andreas Ladner and Diego Garzia for their comments on earlier versions. \n\nData and supporting materials necessary to reproduce the numerical results in the article are available in the JOP Dataverse (https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/jop). An online appendix with supplementary material is available at https://dx.doi.org/10.1086/702946.\n\nSupplemental Material - 160577Appendix.pdf
", "abstract": "Voting advice applications (VAAs) are voter information tools that millions of individuals have used in recent elections throughout the world. However, little is known about how they affect political behavior. Until now, observational studies of VAA have produced inconclusive results. Here we present the results from a randomized field experiment in Switzerland that estimates the causal effects of VAA use on voters' vote intentions. Our results suggest that usage of the Swiss VAA smartvote strengthened the vote intention for the most preferred party and also increased the number of parties considered as potential vote options. These results imply that VAAs can influence voting behavior and that they can play an important role in electoral politics.", "date": "2019-07", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Journal of Politics", "volume": "81", "number": "3", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "833-847", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20190725-083618808", "issn": "0022-3816", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20190725-083618808", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "University of Lausanne" }, { "agency": "University of Zurich" }, { "agency": "European University Institute" }, { "agency": "Swiss State Secretariat for Education and Research" }, { "agency": "ETH Zurich" }, { "agency": "University of Bern" }, { "agency": "University of Lucerne" } ] }, "doi": "10.1086/702946", "primary_object": { "basename": "160577Appendix.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/11550-mbc05/files/160577Appendix.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2019", "author_list": "Pianzola, Jo\u00eblle; Trechsel, Alexander H.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/q0bxq-7f233", "eprint_id": 94787, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 15:12:35", "lastmod": "2023-10-20 18:16:00", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Atkeson-L-R", "name": { "family": "Atkeson", "given": "Lonna Rae" } }, { "id": "Levin-I", "name": { "family": "Levin", "given": "Ines" } }, { "id": "Li-Yimeng", "name": { "family": "Li", "given": "Yimeng" }, "orcid": "0000-0003-3855-0756" } ] }, "title": "Paying Attention to Inattentive Survey Respondents", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "survey design, list experiments, survey response, satisficing, instructed-response items, trap questions, sensitive questions", "note": "\u00a9 2019 The Author(s). Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology. \n\nPublished online: 16 January 2019. \n\nLevin thanks Sean Ingham for his collaboration in collecting the survey data used in this paper, and the University of Georgia for providing the financial support to conduct this survey. The survey data was collected using procedures approved by the Institute Review Board at the University of Georgia. Previous versions of this research were presented at the 34th Annual Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology (2017), at the 2017 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (APSA), and at the 2nd Annual Southern California Methods Workshop at UCSB (September 19\u201320, 2017). We thank participants at these meetings for their comments and suggestions, and in particular we thank Michael James Ritter for his comments after our presentation at APSA, and Leah Stokes for her comments on our presentation at the Southern California Methods Workshop. Replication materials for this paper are available (Alvarez et al.2018).", "abstract": "Does attentiveness matter in survey responses? Do more attentive survey participants give higher quality responses? Using data from a recent online survey that identified inattentive respondents using instructed-response items, we demonstrate that ignoring attentiveness provides a biased portrait of the distribution of critical political attitudes and behavior. We show that this bias occurs in the context of both typical closed-ended questions and in list experiments. Inattentive respondents are common and are more prevalent among the young and less educated. Those who do not pass the trap questions interact with the survey instrument in distinctive ways: they take less time to respond; are more likely to report nonattitudes; and display lower consistency in their reported choices. Inattentiveness does not occur completely at random and failing to properly account for it may lead to inaccurate estimates of the prevalence of key political attitudes and behaviors, of both sensitive and more prosaic nature.", "date": "2019-04", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Analysis", "volume": "27", "number": "2", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "145-162", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20190418-110906970", "issn": "1047-1987", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20190418-110906970", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1017/pan.2018.57", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2019", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Atkeson, Lonna Rae; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/75se6-2ar58", "eprint_id": 92883, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 14:29:54", "lastmod": "2023-10-20 16:35:20", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Abrajanoa-M-A", "name": { "family": "Abrajanoa", "given": "Marisa" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Answering Questions About Race: How Racial and Ethnic Identities Influence Survey Response", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "survey methodology, survey mode, racial attitudes, racial resentment, survey response", "note": "\u00a9 2019 by SAGE Publications. \n\nArticle first published online: November 21, 2018; Issue published: March 1, 2019.\n\nSupplemental Material - Appendix.pdf
", "abstract": "Given the fundamental role that race and ethnicity play in U.S. society, sensitive survey items on this subject can often lead individuals to underreport their true attitudes. Previous studies have shown that the absence of an interviewer reduces the pressure to provide socially desirable responses. The 2012 and 2016 American National Election Studies (ANES), where both interviewer and self-administered surveys were used, allows us to test whether mode effects emerge in the way respondents answer survey items related to racial attitudes. We also expect mode effects to vary based on the extent to which individuals are politically socialized in the United States. We find that respondents tend to underreport their racial animosity in interview-administered versus online surveys. Moreover, underreporting is nonexistent in the responses provided by foreign-born Latinos, but emerges for U.S.-born Latinos, Blacks, and Whites. These findings pose a number of implications for our understanding of racial attitudes and survey mode.", "date": "2019-03", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Politics Research", "volume": "47", "number": "2", "publisher": "SAGE Publications", "pagerange": "250-274", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20190213-124629725", "issn": "1532-673X", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20190213-124629725", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1177/1532673X18812039", "primary_object": { "basename": "Appendix.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/75se6-2ar58/files/Appendix.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2019", "author_list": "Abrajanoa, Marisa and Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/n7f9f-vzf37", "eprint_id": 89574, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 12:34:03", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 22:50:25", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Lin-Chujun", "name": { "family": "Lin", "given": "Chujun" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-7605-6508" }, { "id": "Adolphs-R", "name": { "family": "Adolphs", "given": "Ralph" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8053-9692" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Inferring Whether Officials Are Corruptible From Looking At Their Faces", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "face perception, corruption, social attribution, stereotyping, political psychology, open data, open materials, preregistered", "note": "\u00a9 2018 The Author(s). \n\nReceived: September 25, 2017; Accepted: June 03, 2018; Article first published online: September 12, 2018. \n\nAction Editor: D. Stephen Lindsay served as action editor for this article. \n\nAuthor Contributions: All authors developed the study concept and designed the study. Testing and data collection were performed by C. Lin, who also analyzed and interpreted the data under the supervision of R. Adolphs and R. M. Alvarez. All authors drafted the manuscript. All the authors approved the final manuscript for submission. \n\nWe thank Colin F. Camerer, Antonio Rangel, Anita Tusche, and Shuo Wang for helpful conversations. \n\nThe author(s) declared that there were no conflicts of interest with respect to the authorship or the publication of this article. \n\nThis research was supported in part by a Conte Center grant from the National Institute of Mental Health (P50MH094258). \n\nSupplemental Material: Additional supporting information can be found at http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/suppl/10.1177/0956797618788882. \n\nOpen Practices: All data and materials have been made publicly available via the Open Science Framework (OSF) and can be accessed at https://osf.io/chpfn/. The design and analysis plans for the experiments were preregistered at the OSF (Study 1: https://osf.io/mge8r/, Study 2: https://osf.io/tgzpz/, Study 3: https://osf.io/7a7eu/, Study 4: https://osf.io/58x6e/). The complete Open Practices Disclosure for this article can be found at http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/suppl/10.1177/0956797618788882. This article has received badges for Open Data, Open Materials, and Preregistration. More information about the Open Practices badges can be found at http://www.psychologicalscience.org/publications/badges.\n\nPublished - 10.1177_0956797618788882.pdf
Supplemental Material - LinOpenPracticesDisclosure.pdf
Supplemental Material - LinSupplementalMaterial.pdf
", "abstract": "While inferences of traits from unfamiliar faces prominently reveal stereotypes, some facial inferences also correlate with real-world outcomes. We investigated whether facial inferences are associated with an important real-world outcome closely linked to the face bearer's behavior: political corruption. In four preregistered studies (N = 325), participants made trait judgments of unfamiliar government officials on the basis of their photos. Relative to peers with clean records, federal and state officials convicted of political corruption (Study 1) and local officials who violated campaign finance laws (Study 2) were perceived as more corruptible, dishonest, selfish, and aggressive but similarly competent, ambitious, and masculine (Study 3). Mediation analyses and experiments in which the photos were digitally manipulated showed that participants' judgments of how corruptible an official looked were causally influenced by the face width of the stimuli (Study 4). The findings shed new light on the complex causal mechanisms linking facial appearances with social behavior.", "date": "2018-11-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Psychological Science", "volume": "29", "number": "11", "publisher": "SAGE Publications", "pagerange": "1807-1823", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20180912-112657269", "issn": "0956-7976", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20180912-112657269", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Caltech Conte Center for the Neurobiology of Social Decision Making" }, { "agency": "NIH", "grant_number": "P50MH094258" } ] }, "doi": "10.1177/0956797618788882", "pmcid": "PMC6249659", "primary_object": { "basename": "10.1177_0956797618788882.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/n7f9f-vzf37/files/10.1177_0956797618788882.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "LinOpenPracticesDisclosure.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/n7f9f-vzf37/files/LinOpenPracticesDisclosure.pdf" }, { "basename": "LinSupplementalMaterial.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/n7f9f-vzf37/files/LinSupplementalMaterial.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2018", "author_list": "Lin, Chujun; Adolphs, Ralph; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/51ta4-2sj03", "eprint_id": 90314, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 12:34:21", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 15:44:47", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Hall-T-E", "name": { "family": "Hall", "given": "Thad E." } }, { "id": "Levin-Ines", "name": { "family": "Levin", "given": "Ines" } } ] }, "title": "Low-Information Voting: Evidence From Instant-Runoff Elections", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "voting, low-information elections, Instant-Runoff Voting, ranked voting, partisan cues, information shortcuts", "note": "\u00a9 2018 SAGE Publications. \n\nArticle first published online: March 23, 2018; Issue published: November 1, 2018.\n\nSubmitted - SSRN-id3152649.pdf
Supplemental Material - IRV2008PC_SI.pdf
", "abstract": "How do voters make decisions in low-information contests? Although some research has looked at low-information voter decision making, scant research has focused on data from actual ballots cast in low-information elections. We focus on three 2008 Pierce County (Washington) Instant-Runoff Voting (IRV) elections. Using individual-level ballot image data, we evaluate the structure of individual rankings for specific contests to determine whether partisan cues underlying partisan rankings are correlated with choices made in nonpartisan races. This is the first time that individual-level data from real elections have been used to evaluate the role of partisan cues in nonpartisan races. We find that, in partisan contests, voters make avid use of partisan cues in constructing their preference rankings, rank-ordering candidates based on the correspondence between voters' own partisan preferences and candidates' reported partisan affiliation. However, in nonpartisan contests where candidates have no explicit partisan affiliation, voters rely on cues other than partisanship to develop complete candidate rankings.", "date": "2018-11-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Politics Research", "volume": "46", "number": "6", "publisher": "SAGE Publications", "pagerange": "1012-1038", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20181017-160331820", "issn": "1532-673X", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20181017-160331820", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1177/1532673X18759643", "primary_object": { "basename": "IRV2008PC_SI.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/51ta4-2sj03/files/IRV2008PC_SI.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "SSRN-id3152649.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/51ta4-2sj03/files/SSRN-id3152649.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2018", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Hall, Thad E.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/x8r6n-a3s32", "eprint_id": 87050, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 09:01:38", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 20:49:47", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "N\u00fa\u00f1ez-L", "name": { "family": "N\u00fa\u00f1ez", "given": "Lucas" } } ] }, "title": "A Taxonomy of Protest Voting", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "voting, elections, tactical voting, protest voting, strategic voting", "note": "\u00a9 2018 Annual Reviews. \n\nWe thank Andre Blais, Jacquez Cremer, Marta Cantijoch Cunill, Phil Hoffman, Michael Lewis-Beck, Gerhard Loewenberg, and Jean-Laurent Rosenthal for helpful advice. We also thank participants in the 2016 Annual Meeting of the Conference on Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties (University of Kent) and faculty and students at the University of Tampere for comments, criticisms, and suggestions. \n\nDisclosure Statement: The authors are not aware of any affiliations, memberships, funding, or financial holdings that might be perceived as affecting the objectivity of this review.", "abstract": "Observers of elections often report that voters have engaged in protest voting. We find that \"protest voting\" refers to a wide range of behaviors, and we create a taxonomy of these phenomena. Support for fringe or insurgent parties is often labeled as protest voting. Voting theorists have used the term in a completely different way, identifying an unusual type of tactical voting as protest voting. Protest voting also occurs when voters cast blank, null, or spoiled ballots. There are also instances when protest voting is organized and directed by political elites. Finally, several countries provide voters with the option of casting a vote for \"None of the Above,\" which some see as a form of protest voting. In addition to developing this taxonomy, we discuss the analytical and empirical challenges confronting research on each type of protest voting.", "date": "2018-05", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Annual Review of Political Science", "volume": "21", "publisher": "Annual Reviews", "pagerange": "135-154", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20180613-091037452", "issn": "1094-2939", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20180613-091037452", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1146/annurev-polisci-050517-120425", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2018", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Kiewiet, D. Roderick; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/4mvhz-yc849", "eprint_id": 86312, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 08:34:37", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 19:27:45", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Key-E-M", "name": { "family": "Key", "given": "Ellen M." } }, { "id": "N\u00fa\u00f1ez-L", "name": { "family": "N\u00fa\u00f1ez", "given": "Lucas" } } ] }, "title": "Research Replication: Practical Considerations", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 American Political Science Association 2018. \n\nPublished online: 04 April 2018.", "abstract": "With the discipline's push toward data access and research transparency (DA-RT), journal replication archives are becoming increasingly common. As researchers work to ensure that replication materials are provided, they also should pay attention to the content\u2014rather than simply the provision\u2014of journal archives. Based on our experience in analyzing and handling journal replication materials, we present a series of recommendations that can make them easier to understand and use. The provision of clear, functional, and well-documented replication materials is key for achieving the goals of transparent and replicable research. Furthermore, good replication materials enhance the development of extensions and related research by making state-of-the-art methodologies and analyses more accessible.", "date": "2018-04", "date_type": "published", "publication": "PS: Political Science & Politics", "volume": "51", "number": "2", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "422-426", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20180509-110250475", "issn": "1049-0965", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20180509-110250475", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1017/S1049096517002566", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2018", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Key, Ellen M.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/n4per-xw102", "eprint_id": 84101, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 05:24:42", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 14:41:31", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Levin-I", "name": { "family": "Levin", "given": "Ines" } }, { "id": "N\u00fa\u00f1ez-L", "name": { "family": "N\u00fa\u00f1ez", "given": "Lucas" } } ] }, "title": "The Four Faces of Political Participation in Argentina: Using Latent Class Analysis to Study Political Behavior", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "political participation, civic engagement, unconventional participation, latent class analysis, finite mixture modeling", "note": "\u00a9 2017 Southern Political Science Association. \n\nPublished online August 30, 2017. \n\nWe thank Andy Sinclair and Gabriel Katz for their work on related projects. We thank the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) and its major supporters (the US Agency for International Development, the Inter-American Development Bank, and Vanderbilt University) for making the LAPOP data that we use in this paper available and easily accessible.\n\nPublished - 692786.pdf
Supplemental Material - 160210Appendix.pdf
", "abstract": "In this paper we use latent class analysis to identify the four faces of political participation. Previous research has generally focused on conventional forms of political participation (for example, voting), with some research looking as well at unconventional forms of political participation, like protesting. Moreover, most research studies these forms of participation separately. However, citizens actually engage in both conventional and unconventional participation simultaneously, and here we present a methodology that can identify citizens who engage in both, neither, or only one form of participation. Using our approach, we examine a series of hypotheses about how social, political, and economic grievances lead citizens to engage in each face of political participation. We apply this methodology to recent survey data from Argentina, which we argue is an excellent case for studying both forms of participation simultaneously. This application demonstrates the utility of the latent class approach for studying the four faces of political participation.", "date": "2017-10", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Journal of Politics", "volume": "79", "number": "4", "publisher": "Chicago University Press", "pagerange": "1386-1402", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20180104-151015720", "issn": "0022-3816", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20180104-151015720", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1086/692786", "primary_object": { "basename": "160210Appendix.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/n4per-xw102/files/160210Appendix.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "692786.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/n4per-xw102/files/692786.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Levin, Ines; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/v4epr-1bp02", "eprint_id": 80753, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 03:00:24", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:11:29", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "The Bayesian Voter: The Dynamics of Information and Learning in a Presidential Election Campaign", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Washington D.C., September 1993. John Aldrich, Robert Bates, John Brehm, David Canon, and Peter Lange all provided very helpful advice about this research. I thank Thomas Patterson for access to his content analysis of the 1976 presidential election.\n\nSubmitted - sswp857.pdf
", "abstract": "[No abstract]", "date": "2017-08-30", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170823-163841669", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170823-163841669", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/v4epr-1bp02", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp857.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/v4epr-1bp02/files/sswp857.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/6p349-99205", "eprint_id": 80750, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 03:00:19", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:11:22", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Brehm-J", "name": { "family": "Brehm", "given": "John" } } ] }, "title": "When Core Beliefs Collide: Conflict, Complexity, or Just Plain Confusion?", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Paper prepared for presentation at the 1993 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C.\n\nSubmitted - sswp860.pdf
", "abstract": "In this paper, we argue that on many important public policy questions, people may be unsure of their preferences because their underlying principles or values are in conflict. We build a simple model of conflicting core beliefs, building on the work of Heider (1958). Using abortion policies as our test case, we develop a test for our theory using heteroskedastic probit, using data taken from the 1988 General Social Survey. The heteroskedastic probit results confirm our model, and in the last section of the paper, we trace the implications of this model for some of the larger questions in public opinion research.", "date": "2017-08-30", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170823-161705914", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170823-161705914", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/6p349-99205", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp860.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/6p349-99205/files/sswp860.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Brehm, John" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/5f7wb-bjt75", "eprint_id": 80779, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 02:40:23", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:11:47", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Beck-N", "name": { "family": "Beck", "given": "Nathaniel" } }, { "id": "Katz-J-N", "name": { "family": "Katz", "given": "Jonathan N." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-5287-3503" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Garrett-G", "name": { "family": "Garrett", "given": "Geoffrey" } }, { "id": "Lange-P", "name": { "family": "Lange", "given": "Peter" } } ] }, "title": "Government Partisanship, Labor Organization and Macroeconomic Performance: A Corrigendum", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "We would like to thank Gary King (for his persistence) and Brian Sala. Katz's work was supported by a National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship. \n\nPublished as Beck, Nathaniel, Jonathan N. Katz, R. Michael Alvarez, Geoffrey Garrett, and Peter Lange. \"Government partisanship, labor organization, and macroeconomic performance: a corrigendum.\" American Political Science Review 87, no. 4 (1993): 945-948.\n\nSubmitted - sswp848.pdf
", "abstract": "Alvarez, Garrett and Lange (1991) used cross-national panel data on the OECD nations to show that countries with left governments and encompassing labor movements enjoyed superior economic performance. Here we show that the standard errors reported in that article are incorrect. Re-estimation of the model using ordinary least squares and robust standard errors shows that the major finding of Alvarez, Garrett and Lange, regarding the political and institutional causes of economic growth, is upheld but the findings for unemployment and inflation are open to question. We show that the model used by Alvarez, Garrett and Lange, feasible generalized least squares, cannot produce standard errors when the number of countries analyzed exceeds the length of the time period under analysis. Also, we argue that ordinary least squares with robust standard errors is superior to feasible generalized least squares for typical cross-national panel studies.", "date": "2017-08-28", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170824-162753007", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170824-162753007", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF Graduate Research Fellowship" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/5f7wb-bjt75", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp848.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/5f7wb-bjt75/files/sswp848.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Beck, Nathaniel; Katz, Jonathan N.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/2dzqg-j2c55", "eprint_id": 80778, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 02:40:19", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:11:45", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Aldrich-J-H", "name": { "family": "Aldrich", "given": "John H." } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Issues and The Presidential Primary Voter", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest. Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 1992. Some of the data utilized in this paper were made available by the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research. Larry Bartels, John Brehm, David Canon, Paul Gronke, John Kessel, Philip Paolino, and Wayne Parent provided helpful comments. \n\nPublished as Aldrich, John H., and R. Michael Alvarez. \"Issues and the presidential primary voter.\" Political Behavior 16, no. 3 (1994): 289-317.\n\nSubmitted - sswp849.pdf
", "abstract": "Most agree that voting in presidential general elections is largely contingent on the evaluations of the candidates, issues, and parties. Yet in presidential primary elections the determinants of voter choices a.re less clear. Partisanship is inconsequential, information about candidate personalities and policy positions is scarce, and a fourth factor, expectations, may influence voters. In this paper, we reconsider the influence of political issues in presidential primaries. We argue that pa.st work has not adequately considered how \"issues matter\" in primary elections. Primaries are intra-party affairs, and the political issues which typically divide the parties are not very relevant in primaries. Instead, we focus on the policy issues ea.ch candidate chooses to emphasize in their quest for the nomination, which we call policy priori ties. With data gathered about media coverage of the presidential contenders in the 1988 primaries, and using exit poll data from the 1988 Super Tuesday primaries, we show that issues, as policy priorities, do matter in presidential primary elections. This research also implies that primary campaigns matter, since information concerning the policy priorities of the candidates reaches the intended audience.", "date": "2017-08-28", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170824-161119322", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170824-161119322", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/2dzqg-j2c55", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp849.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/2dzqg-j2c55/files/sswp849.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Aldrich, John H. and Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/43gk8-wxh23", "eprint_id": 80797, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 02:26:43", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:13:39", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Gronke-P-W", "name": { "family": "Gronke", "given": "Paul W." } } ] }, "title": "Perception and Misperception: Constituent Knowledge of Their Representative's Persian Gulf War Vote", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the Conference on the Political Consequences of War, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., February 28, 1992. We thank Thomas Mann for sponsoring that conference; John Aldrich, John Brehm, Charles Franklin, Ole R. Holsti, David Leege, Douglas Rivers, and John Zaller for their contributions to our work; and John Bainey and Abby Delman for their assistance. Some of the data used in this paper were originally collected by the Center for Political Studies and Distributed by the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.\n\nSubmitted - sswp841.pdf
", "abstract": "Many assert that constituents know little of their elected official's behavior, especially how their representative s have voted on specific legislative bills. When legislation concerns foreign affairs, the prospects for constituent knowledge are usually asserted to be even bleaker. We challenge these assertions. Our challenge is based on an intensive analysis of one highly salient roll call vote: The House and Senate vote s on the January 14, 1991 \"Use of Force Resolution.\" Using data from the 1990-1991 Panel Study of the Political Consequence s of War we examine constituent perceptions of House and Senate member \"Use of Force Resolution\" votes. We find that aggregate perceptions of senator votes vary according to the senator's party, his or her tenure and past electoral competitiveness. At the individual level, we find that, while more informed constituents had more accurate perceptions, many less- informed citizens were able to use readily-understandable cues in developing their perceptions.", "date": "2017-08-28", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170825-135911186", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170825-135911186", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/43gk8-wxh23", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp841.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/43gk8-wxh23/files/sswp841.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Gronke, Paul W." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ykx1p-w3965", "eprint_id": 80793, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 02:33:46", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:13:32", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Schousen-M-M", "name": { "family": "Schousen", "given": "Matthew M." } } ] }, "title": "Policy Moderation Qr Conflicting Expectations? Testing The Intentional Models of Split-Ticket Voting", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1991 Midwest Political Science Association Annual Meeting, April 18-20, Chicago, Illinois. We thank John Aldrich, G. R. Boynton, David Canon, Morris Fiorina, Michael Krassa, Dean Lacy, Peter Lange, Brian Loynd, Philip Paolino, Patrick Sellers and Rick Wilson for their helpful discussions and comments. \n\nPublished as Alavarez, R. Michael, and Matthew M. Schousen. \"Policy Moderation or Conflicting Expectations? Testing the Intentional Models of Split-Ticket Voting.\" American Politics Quarterly 21, no. 4 (1993): 410-438.\n\nSubmitted - sswp845.pdf
", "abstract": "In this paper we examine two models of the electoral origins of divided government. One model is the policy-moderation model, advocated originally by Fiorina (1988, 1992). The other model focuses on the different expectations held by the electorate of the branches of government, as well as the different electoral contexts (congressional and presidential) in which voter decision making occurs (Jacobson 1990A, 1990B). Utilizing individual-level survey data, we test various hypotheses derived from each model. Our empirical results give little support to the policy-moderation model. However, the second model has strong empirical support. We conclude with a discussion of our results for empirical and normative studies of divided control of government.", "date": "2017-08-28", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170825-132819904", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170825-132819904", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/ykx1p-w3965", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp845.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ykx1p-w3965/files/sswp845.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Schousen, Matthew M." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/xbn07-tae09", "eprint_id": 80794, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 02:33:50", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:13:34", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Franklin-C-H", "name": { "family": "Franklin", "given": "Charles H." } } ] }, "title": "Uncertainty and Political Perceptions", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Previous versions of this paper were presented at the American Political Science Association Annual Meetings, Chicago, Illinois, September 1992, and the Ninth Political Methodology Conference, Harvard University, July 16-19, 1992. Vi1e thank Steve Ansolabehere, Stanley Feldman and Simon Jackman for their comments. We are especially indebted to the Letters and Science Survey Center of the University of Wisconsin, Madison, for support of our data collection. \n\nPublished as Alvarez, R. Michael, and Charles H. Franklin. \"Uncertainty and political perceptions.\" The Journal of Politics 56, no. 3 (1994): 671-688.\n\nSubmitted - sswp844.pdf
", "abstract": "The world of politics is uncertain. Citizens are only imperfectly informed about current governmental actions and about the promises of politicians regarding future courses of public policy. Politicians and candidates, moreover, often have incentives to disseminate ambiguous and perhaps inconsistent information. Previous work, both theoretical and empirical, has largely failed to incorporate this uncertainty into the analysis of public opinion and electoral behavior. In this paper we discuss measures designed to elicit the uncertainty survey respondents feel about their political perceptions. These measures demonstrate response patterns which are interpretable and substantively interesting. Also, the response patterns are consistent with a model relating uncertainty to citizen information costs. And last, these measures allow us to understand the stated perceptions of respondents in novel and important ways.", "date": "2017-08-28", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170825-133724656", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170825-133724656", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/xbn07-tae09", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp844.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/xbn07-tae09/files/sswp844.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Franklin, Charles H." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/4s991-1x478", "eprint_id": 80680, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 05:15:25", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:10:16", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Saving-J", "name": { "family": "Saving", "given": "Jason" } } ] }, "title": "Congressional Committees and the Political Economy of Federal Outlays", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "We thank Kenneth Bickers and Robert Stein for access to their \"U.S. Domestic Assistance Programs Database,\" and for their assistance with the data. We also thank Joseph Cooper, John Ferejohn, and Gretchen Kalsow for their comments, and Abby Delman for her assistance.\n\nPublished as Alvarez, R. Michael, and Jason L. Saving. \"Congressional committees and the political economy of federal outlays.\" Public Choice 92, no. 1 (1997): 55-73.\n\nSubmitted - sswp898.pdf
", "abstract": "The literature on the organization of the United States Congress has been dominated by \"distributive\" and \"informational\" theory. One important source of disagreement between these two theories is their characterization of whether individual legislators can engage in pork-barrel activities. Here we provide evidence which indicates that the pork-barrel is alive and well in the contemporary United States Congress. We focus on whether members of power and constituency committees can direct disproportionate federal expenditures to their districts. Finding strong and systematic evidence of pork-barrel activities by committee members provides empirical support for distributive theories of legislative organization.", "date": "2017-08-23", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170822-133838152", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170822-133838152", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/4s991-1x478", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp898.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/4s991-1x478/files/sswp898.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Saving, Jason" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/aa41w-fsk46", "eprint_id": 80636, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 04:46:03", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:09:49", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Two-Stage Estimation of Non-Recursive Choice Models", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "John Aldrich and John Brehm provided important comments and advice. The John M. Olin Foundation provided support for this research. \n\nPublished as Alvarez, R. M., & Glasgow, G. (1999). Two-stage estimation of nonrecursive choice models. Political Analysis, 8(2), 147-165.\n\nSubmitted - sswp905.pdf
", "abstract": "Questions of causation are important issues in empirical research on political behavior. Most of the discussion of the econometric problems associated with multi-equation models with reciprocal causation has focused on models with continuous dependent variables (e.g. Markus and Converse 1979; Page and Jones 1979). Since many models of political behavior involve discrete or dichotomous dependent variables, this paper turns to two techniques which can be employed to estimate reciprocal relationships between dichotomous and continuous dependent variables. One technique which I call two-stage probit least squares (2SPLS) is very similar to familiar two-stage instrumental variable techniques. The second technique, called two-stage conditional maximum likelihood (2SCML), may overcome problems associated with 2SPLS, but has not been used in the political science literature. First I show the properties of both techniques using Monte Carlo simulations. Then, I apply these techniques to an empirical example which focuses on the relationship between voter preferences in a presidential election and the voter's uncertainty about the policy positions taken by the candidates. This example demonstrates the importance of these techniques for political science research.", "date": "2017-08-22", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170818-162556639", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170818-162556639", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John M. Olin Foundation" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/aa41w-fsk46", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp905.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/aa41w-fsk46/files/sswp905.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/r4hfn-zvy61", "eprint_id": 80649, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 04:40:07", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:10:03", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "Voter Choice in 1992: Economics, Issues, and Anger", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "The data employed in this paper were gathered by the National Election Studies and made available by the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. Earlier versions of part of this research were presented at the Political Methodology Summer Conference, Tallahassee, Florida, July 1993, and at the Annual Meetings of the Southern Political Science Association, Savannah, Georgia, November 1993. We thank Larry Bartels and Brian Roberts for their contributions, and Abby Delman for her assistance.\n\nSubmitted - sswp902.pdf
", "abstract": "This paper examines the voting behavior of individuals in the 1 992 presidential election. Employing a multinomial probit model we disprove several commonly held beliefs regarding the uniqueness of the election and the mood of the voters. We show emphatically the dominance of the economy as an issue, and that Clinton, not Perot, was the beneficiary of economic discontent. We show the limited influence of the candidates' efforts at choosing the optimal ideological position. We also demonstrate, via simulations of the outcome under hypothetical distributions of preferences, that the effect of the economy, while large, cannot by itself explain the magnitude of Bush's defeat. We also prove the surprisingly powerful impact of the candidates' positions on abortion on voters' choices. And we disprove the stylized fact that the 1 992 election was characterized by \"angry voters.\" Finally, we show that Perot took more votes from Bush than he did from Clinton.", "date": "2017-08-22", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170821-141721076", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170821-141721076", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/r4hfn-zvy61", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp902.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/r4hfn-zvy61/files/sswp902.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Nagler, Jonathan" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/z0hv5-kw285", "eprint_id": 80633, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 04:57:44", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:09:43", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "Correlated Disturbances in Discrete Choice Models: A Comparison of Multinomial Probit Models and Logit Models", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "We thank John Londregan and Langche Zeng for their comments. A previous version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, New York, NY, September 1994. Alvarez thanks the Olin Foundation for support of his research.\n\nSubmitted - sswp914.pdf
", "abstract": "In political science, there are many cases where individuals make discrete choices from more than two alternatives. This paper uses Monte Carlo analysis to examine several questions about one class of discrete choice models - those involving both alternative specific and individual-specific variables on the right-hand side - and demonstrates several findings. First, the use of estimation techniques assuming uncorrelated disturbances across alternatives in discrete choice models can lead to significantly biased parameter estimates. This point is tempered by the observation that probability estimates based on the full choice set generated from such estimates are not likely to be biased enough to lead to incorrect inferences. However, attempts to infer the impact of altering the choice set - such as by removing one of the alternatives - will be less successful. Second, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model is extremely unreliable when the pat tern of correlation among the disturbances is not as restricted as the GEV model assumes. GEV estimates may suggest grouping among the choices that is in fact not present in the data. Third, in samples the size of many typical political science applications \u2013 1000 observations - Multinomial Probit (MNP) is capable of recovering precise estimates of the parameters of the systemic component of the model, though MNP is not likely to generate precise estimates of the relationship among the disturbances in samples of this size. Paradoxically, MNP's primary benefit is its ability to uncover relationships among alternatives and to correctly estimate the effect of removing an alternative from the choice set. Thus this paper suggests the increased use of MNP by political scientists examining discrete choice problems when the central question of interest is the effect of removing an alternative from the choice set. We demonstrate that for other questions, models positing in dependent disturbances may be 'close enough.'", "date": "2017-08-21", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170818-153518647", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170818-153518647", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John M. Olin Foundation" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/z0hv5-kw285", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp914.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/z0hv5-kw285/files/sswp914.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Nagler, Jonathan" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/w9f59-jzr85", "eprint_id": 80572, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 07:04:49", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:08:40", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Bowler-S", "name": { "family": "Bowler", "given": "Shaun" } }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "Issues, Economics and the Dynamics of Multi-Party Elections: The British 1987 General Election", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Voting, Conservatism, Political parties, Political science, Economic models, Unemployment, Taxes, Political elections, Simulations, Taxation", "note": "Comments are welcome. Portions of this research have been presented at the Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association in 1994 and 1995; the Annual Meetings of the Midwest Political Science Association in 1994 and 1995; the Political Methodology Summer Conference in 1995: and the 1995 Southern California Political Economy Meetings. We thank Nathaniel Beck, Nigel Boyle. Geoff Garrett, John Jackson, Jonathan Katz, Doug Rivers, and Guy Whitten for comments on previous versions of this work. Nagler thanks the NSF for grant SBR-9413939. \n\nPublished as Alvarez, R. Michael, Jonathan Nagler, and Shaun Bowler. \"Issues, economics, and the dynamics of multiparty elections: The British 1987 general election.\" American Political Science Review 94, no. 1 (2000): 131-149.\n\nSubmitted - sswp949.pdf
", "abstract": "This paper offers a model of three-party elections which allows voters to combine retrospective economic evaluations with considerations of the positions of the parties in the issue-space as well as the issue-preferences of the voters. We describe a model of British elections which allows voters to consider simultaneously all three parties, rather than limiting voters to choices among pairs of parties as is usually done. Using this model we show that both policy issues and the state of the national economy matter in British elections. We also show how voters framed their decisions. Voters first made a retrospective evaluation of the Conservative party based on economic performance; and those voters that rejected the Conservative party chose between Labour and Alliance based on issue positions. Through simulations of the effects of issues\u2014we move the parties in the issue space and re-estimate vote-shares\u2014and the economy\u2014we hypothesize an alternative distribution of views of t h e economy for voters\u2014we show that Labour has virtually no chance to win with the Alliance as a viable alternative. Even if the Alliance (or the Liberal Democrats) disappears. Labour will need to significantly moderate its policy positions to have a chance of competing with the Conservative party. We argue that the methodological technique we employ multinomial probit, is a superior mechanism for studying three-party elections as it allows for a richer formulation of politics than do competing methods.", "date": "2017-08-21", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170817-140948569", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170817-140948569", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/w9f59-jzr85", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp949.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/w9f59-jzr85/files/sswp949.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Bowler, Shaun; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1mm41-kt439", "eprint_id": 80565, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 07:14:50", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:08:28", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Studying Congressional and Gubernatorial Campaigns", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Prepared for presentation at the 1996 National Election Studies Research and Development Conference on Congressional Elections. I thank Catherine Boone, Kin Chang, and John White for their assisting in collecting some of the data presented here. Some of the data presented here are from two collaborative projects: one with Charles Franklin, the other with Reginald Roberts. The John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation supported the collection of some of the data presented here, and the John M. Olin Foundation provided support for my research through a Faculty Fellowship. Some of the data provided here were collected by the National Election Studies, and made available by the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.\n\nSubmitted - sswp954.pdf
", "abstract": "[No abstract]", "date": "2017-08-21", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170817-133125568", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170817-133125568", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John M. Olin Foundation" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/1mm41-kt439", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp954.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1mm41-kt439/files/sswp954.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/h974a-n4y88", "eprint_id": 80570, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 07:04:45", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:08:36", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Survey Measures of Uncertainty: A Report to the National Election Studies Board on the Use of \"Certainty\" Questions to Measure Uncertainty About Candidate Traits and Issue Positions", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Submitted - sswp950.pdf
", "abstract": "[No abstract]", "date": "2017-08-21", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170817-140539307", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170817-140539307", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/h974a-n4y88", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp950.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/h974a-n4y88/files/sswp950.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/01vc1-y8z98", "eprint_id": 80590, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 06:04:49", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:09:08", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Brehm-J", "name": { "family": "Brehm", "given": "John" } } ] }, "title": "Are Americans Ambivalent Towards Racial Policies?", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Presented at the 53nd Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, April 6-8, 1995, Chicago, IL. We appreciate the comments of Lynn Sanders, Paul Sniderman, Laura Stoker, and the Duke-UNC Political Psychology Group. We thank Paul Sniderman, Philip E. Tetlock and Thomas Piazza for use of their 1991 Race and Politics Survey. Alvarez thanks the John M. Olin Foundation for support of his research.", "note": "Published as Alvarez, R. Michael, and John Brehm. \"Are Americans ambivalent towards racial policies?.\" American journal of political science (1997): 345-374.\n\nPublished - sswp935.pdf
", "abstract": "Few debates, political or academic, are as conflictual as those over racial policy. In this paper, we explore the possibility that individual attitudes are internally conflictual through the use of inferential statistical techniques that estimate variability in individual respondents' considerations about racial policy. We consider six separate core beliefs potentially relevant towards racial policy choice (modern racism, anti-black stereotyping, authoritarianism, individualism, and anti-semitism), for four different policy choices. We evaluate two separate models for the source of individual variance: conflicting values and direct effects of values. Our analysis leads us to conclude that modern racism trumps rival explanatory variables in explanations of racial policy choice, and that variability in attitudes toward racial policy is due to uncertainty, and not to ambivalence.", "date": "2017-08-18", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170817-162348562", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170817-162348562", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/01vc1-y8z98", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp935.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/01vc1-y8z98/files/sswp935.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Brehm, John" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/6rr57-0a981", "eprint_id": 80621, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 05:49:26", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:09:20", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Saving-J", "name": { "family": "Saving", "given": "Jason" } } ] }, "title": "Deficits, Democrats, and Distributive Benefits: Congressional Elections and the Pork Barrel in the 1980s", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Pork, Incumbents, Voting, Political parties, Legislators, Federal budgets, Reelection, Entitlement programs, Political elections, Congressional districts", "note": "Thanks to Ken Bickers and Robert Stein for their assistance with the FAADS database. We thank John White and Abby Delman for their assistance. Alvarez thanks the John M. Olin Foundation for their support of his research through a Faculty Fellowship. The data used in this paper are available from the authors via anonymous FTP. \n\nPublished as Alvarez, R. Michael, and Jason L. Saving. \"Deficits, democrats, and distributive benefits: congressional elections and the pork barrel in the 1980s.\" Political Research Quarterly 50, no. 4 (1997): 809-831.\n\nSubmitted - sswp928.pdf
", "abstract": "[No abstract]", "date": "2017-08-18", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170818-132928764", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170818-132928764", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John M. Olin Foundation" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/6rr57-0a981", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp928.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/6rr57-0a981/files/sswp928.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Saving, Jason" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/2zxfw-ghf62", "eprint_id": 80591, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 06:10:29", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:09:10", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Hamilton's Political Economy and the National Bank", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "I would like to thank John Aldrich, Robert Bates, Ruth Grant, and Sarah Hamm-Alvarez for their advice and especially for their patience.\n\nSubmitted - sswp933.pdf
", "abstract": "Alexander Hamilton was a major protagonist in the struggle to build a strong national government backed by the powers necessary to wield centralized power. Hamilton's political and economic writings are complementary bodies of work since they both have common ends - the development of a strong national government and the establishment of strong political-economic institutions. The complementary nature of Hamilton's political and economic writings are most apparent in his defense of the proposal to found a new national bank. This paper will examine in depth Hamilton's writings, concentrating on the bank proposal. The development of this strong and stable financial institution would play both political and economic roles in the new republic. In particular, the national bank would institutionalize citizen support for the new government and thereby ensure the longer-term stability and strength of the national government.", "date": "2017-08-18", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170817-163728303", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170817-163728303", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/2zxfw-ghf62", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp933.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/2zxfw-ghf62/files/sswp933.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/g1037-44d71", "eprint_id": 80626, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 05:40:50", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:09:30", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "The Dynamics of Issue Emphasis: Campaign Strategy and Media Coverage in Statewide Races", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Paper presented at the Midwest Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL, April 6-8, 1995. I thank Catherine Boone, Kin Chang and John White for their assistance collecting data associated with this project. Abby Delman provided invaluable assistance as well. The original impetus for this project was provided by collaborative research with Charles Franklin, and some of the arguments made here parallel ones we have raised in other work. I thank the John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation for their support of this project, and the John M. Olin Foundation for their contribution to my research through a Faculty Fellowship.\n\nSubmitted - sswp922.pdf
", "abstract": "[No abstract]", "date": "2017-08-18", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170818-142346383", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170818-142346383", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation" }, { "agency": "John M. Olin Foundation" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/g1037-44d71", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp922.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/g1037-44d71/files/sswp922.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/k5e1w-bsb18", "eprint_id": 80589, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 06:04:45", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:09:06", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "The New Republic and the New Institutionalism: Hamilton's Plan and Extra-Legislative Organization", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "I would like to thank John Aldrich, Robert Bates, Ruth Grant and Sarah Hamm-Alvarez for their advice and especially their patience.\n\nSubmitted - sswp934.pdf
", "abstract": "Recent work under the \"new institutionalism\" rubric has emphasized the role that institutions play in majority rule legislatures. This paper applies this focus on institutions to examine why rudimentary political parties began to form in the early sessions of the United States Congress. While Constitutional structures could have provided institutional stability to the early Congresses, empirical evidence indicates that a necessary condition underlying the operation of Constitutional stability- enhancing structures was not fulfilled. It will be argued that in order to avoid the uncertainty inherent in the institution-free first two Congresses, political entrepreneurs (especially Hamilton and Madison) began to organize rough legislative factions behind particular political-economic policies. This paper will examine in particular the progress of Hamilton's fiscal plans in the first Congresses and the legislative polarization which provided the foundation upon which the Federalist and Jeffersonian Republican parties were built.", "date": "2017-08-18", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170817-162344965", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170817-162344965", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/k5e1w-bsb18", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp934.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/k5e1w-bsb18/files/sswp934.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/zyt7v-hz990", "eprint_id": 80496, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 07:33:44", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:07:57", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Franklin-C-H", "name": { "family": "Franklin", "given": "Charles H." } } ] }, "title": "Attitudes, Uncertainty and Survey Responses", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "We acknowledge the contributions of seminar discussants at University of California-Riverside, University of California-San Diego, the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and the California Institute of Technology. We thank the Letters and Science Survey Center of the University of Wisconsin, Madison, for support of our data collection. Some of the data we use in this paper were originally collected by the National Election Studies, and were distributed by the Inter-university Consortium for Social and Political Research. Alvarez thanks the John M. Olin Foundation for the support of his research through a Faculty Fellowship.\n\nSubmitted - sswp969.pdf
", "abstract": "Theory: We assume that survey respondents are uncertain about their attitudes, and that their attitudes about political issues can be understood as probability distributions. From this perspective, we derive the \"expected value\" survey response model. We also derive a dynamic model of attitude change, based on the notion that attitudes are uncertain.\nHypotheses: This perspective on political attitudes leads to two predictions. The first is that uncertain respondents will show less variance in responses than certain respondents, and that the less certain will tend to give responses towards the midpoint of issue placement scales. The second is that uncertain respondents will have less stable opinions about political issues over time.\nMethods: These hypotheses are tested using new survey questions we have developed to measure respondent uncertainty. These survey questions have been included in three recent national surveys, two conducted by the Letters and Sciences Survey Center at the University of Wisconsin, Madison and the other by the National Election Studies.\nResults: We demonstrate that uncertain respondents are more likely that certain respondents to provide issue placements at the midpoint of the scale, controlling for many factors. Also, we show that uncertain respondents have less stable political attitudes than certain respondents.", "date": "2017-08-17", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170816-140007624", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170816-140007624", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John M. Olin Foundation" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/zyt7v-hz990", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp969.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/zyt7v-hz990/files/sswp969.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Franklin, Charles H." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/z7ape-pqx33", "eprint_id": 80517, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 07:27:04", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:08:13", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Brehm-J", "name": { "family": "Brehm", "given": "John" } } ] }, "title": "Information and American Attitudes Toward Bureaucracy", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Prepared for presentation at the 54th Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, April 18-20, 1996, Chicago, IL. Thanks to Jim Battista for research assistance.\n\nSubmitted - sswp961.pdf
", "abstract": "The exploration of American attitudes towards the Internal Revenue Service joins an unusual pair of research domains: public opinion and public administration. Public administration scholars contend that the hostility Americans show towards \"bureaucracy\" stems from the contradictory expectations Americans have for bureaucratic performance. Drawing upon a survey commissioned by the IRS and conducted in 1987 just after the passage of the Tax Reform Act, we explore attitudes towards the performance of the IRS in eight categories. Using a new heteroskedastic ordinal logit technique, we demonstrate (1) that it is overwhelmingly a single expectation of flexibility that governs attitudes towards the IRS; (2) that these expectations are not in contradiction; and (3) that domain-specific information sharply focuses respondent attitudes towards bureaucracy.", "date": "2017-08-17", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170816-154051390", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170816-154051390", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/z7ape-pqx33", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp961.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/z7ape-pqx33/files/sswp961.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Brehm, John" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/jcges-hyx21", "eprint_id": 80525, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 07:21:03", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:08:17", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "When Politics and Models Collide: Estimating Models of Multi-Party Elections", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Binomials, Political parties, Spatial models, Economic models, Simulations, Voting, Modeling, Parametric models, Conservatism", "note": "Earlier versions of this research were presented at the Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, IL., September 1995 and at the Annual Political Methodology Summer Conference, Indianapolis, July, 1995. We thank John Aldrich, Nathaniel Beck, Mitch Sanders, Jonathan Katz, Simon Jackman, John Jackson, Dean Lacy, Jan Leighley, Will Moore, Mitch Sanders and Guy Whitten for their comments on earlier versions of this research, and Methodology Conference participants for their input. We also thank participants of the Southern California Political Economy Group for their discussion of this research on November 17, 1995at the University of California-Irvine. Alvarez thanks the John M. Olin Foundation for support of his research. Nagler thanks the NSF for grant SBR-9413939. \n\nPublished as Alvarez, R. Michael, and Jonathan Nagler. \"When politics and models collide: Estimating models of multiparty elections.\" American Journal of Political Science (1998): 55-96.\n\nSubmitted - sswp959.pdf
", "abstract": "Theory: The spatial model of elections can better be represented by using conditional logit than by multinomial logit. The spatial model, and random utility models in general, suffer from a failure to adequately consider the substitutability of candidates sharing similar or identical issue positions.\nHypotheses: Multinomial logit is not much better than successive applications of binomial logit. Conditional logit allows for considering more interesting political questions than does multinomial logit. The spatial model may not correspond to voter decision-making in multiple-candidate settings. Multinomial probit allows for a relaxation of the IIA condition and this should improve estimates of the effect of adding or removing parties.\nMethods: Comparisons of binomial logit, multinomial logit, conditional logit, and multinomial probit on simulated data and survey data from a three-party election.\nResults: Multinomial logit offers almost no benefits over binomial logit. Conditional logit is capable of examining movements by parties, whereas multinomial logit is not. Multinomial probit performs better than conditional logit when considering the effects of altering the set of choices available to voters.", "date": "2017-08-17", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170816-160342093", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170816-160342093", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9413939" }, { "agency": "John M. Olin Foundation" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/jcges-hyx21", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp959.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/jcges-hyx21/files/sswp959.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Nagler, Jonathan" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/9absa-ab280", "eprint_id": 80449, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 00:10:59", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 05:07:34", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Chaney-C", "name": { "family": "Chaney", "given": "Carole" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "Explaining the Gender Gap in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1980-1992", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1996 Midwest Political Science Association Meeting; Chicago, Illinois, April. 1996. Comments are welcome. \n\nPublished as Chaney, C.K., Alvarez, R.M., & Nagler, J. (1998). Explaining the gender gap in US presidential elections, 1980-1992. Political Research Quarterly, 51(2), 311-339.\n\nPublished - sswp979.pdf
", "abstract": "This paper compares the voting behavior of women and men in presidential elections since 1980 to test competing explanations for the gender gap. We show that, consistent with prior research on individual elections, women placed more emphasis on the national economy than men, and men placed more emphasis on pocketbook voting than women. We add evidence showing that women have consistently more negative assessments of the economy than do men, suggesting that a part of what has been considered a Republican-Democratic gender gap is really an anti-incumbent bias on the part of women. Our multivariate analysis demonstrates that neither the differences between men and women's preferences nor emphasis on any single issue explains the significant gender gap in vote choice; but that a combination of respondent views on the economy, social programs, military action, abortion, and ideology can consistently explain at least three-fourths of the gender gap in the 1984, 1988, and 1992 elections. We also clarify the interpretation of partisan identification in explaining the gender gap.", "date": "2017-08-16", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170815-162353811", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170815-162353811", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/9absa-ab280", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp979.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/9absa-ab280/files/sswp979.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Chaney, Carole; Alvarez, R. Michael; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/d9np1-r2b60", "eprint_id": 80362, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 01:46:55", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 00:53:12", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "Analysis of Crossover and Strategic Voting", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Submitted - sswp1019.pdf
", "abstract": "We undertake the analysis of primary elections from 1980 through 1996 using both academic individual level survey data, media exit-polls, and aggregate election returns on a county by county basis. We come to the following conclusions:\n1. there is very little crossover voting in general in United States primaries;\n2. the difference in the amount of crossover voting between states with open primaries and closed primaries is not substantively large;\n3. the amount of strategic behavior on the part of voters is extremely small.", "date": "2017-08-14", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170814-132747188", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170814-132747188", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/d9np1-r2b60", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1019.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/d9np1-r2b60/files/sswp1019.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Nagler, Jonathan" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/z572j-c8444", "eprint_id": 80329, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 01:53:19", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 00:53:05", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Glasgow-G", "name": { "family": "Glasgow", "given": "Garrett" } } ] }, "title": "Do Voters Learn from Presidential Election Campaigns?", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Southern Political Science Association Annual Meeting, November 1996. We thank the John M. Olin Foundation for sponsoring some of this research. We also thank Thomas Patterson for access to his content analysis of the 1976 presidential election, and Stacy Kerkla for her assistance with content analysis of the 1980 presidential election. Last, we thank Jonathan Katz for helpful discussions.\n\nSubmitted - sswp1022.pdf
", "abstract": "Theory: We present a model of voter campaign learning which is based on Bayesian learning models. This model assumes voters are imperfectly informed and that they incorporate new information into their existing perceptions about candidate issue positions in a systematic manner. \n\nHypothesis: Additional information made available to voters about candidate issue positions during the course of a political campaign will lead voters to have more precise perceptions of the issue positions of the candidates involved. \n\nData and Methods: We use panel survey data from the 1976 and 1980 presidential elections, combined with content analyses of the media during these same elections. Our primary analysis is conducted using random effects panel models. \n\nResults: We find that during each of these campaigns many voters became better informed about the positions of candidates on many issues and that these changes in voter information are directly related to the information flow during each presidential campaign.", "date": "2017-08-14", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-165812488", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-165812488", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John M. Olin Foundation" } ] }, "collection": "CaltechAUTHORS", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers", "value": "Social Science Working Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/z572j-c8444", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1022.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/z572j-c8444/files/sswp1022.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Glasgow, Garrett" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/80v4g-r5z56", "eprint_id": 80330, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 01:53:24", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 00:53:07", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "Economics, Entitlements and Social Issues: Voter Choice in the 1996 Presidential Election", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "This is one of many joint papers by the authors on multiparty elections, the ordering of their names reflects alphabetic convention. We thank Alan Abramowitz, Tara Butterfield, and Garrett Glasgow for their comments. A previous version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, August, 1997. This work was supported by National Science Foundation grants SBR-9709327 to Alvarez, and SBR-9413939 and SBR-9709214 to Nagler. \n\nPublished as Alvarez, R.M., & Nagler, J. (1998). Economics, entitlements, and social issues: Voter choice in the 1996 presidential election. American Journal of Political Science, 1349-1363.\n\nPublished - sswp1021.pdf
", "abstract": "Theory: Contemporary theories of presidential election outcomes, especially the economic voting and spatial issue voting models, are used to examine voter choice in the 1996 presidential election.\nHypotheses: First, we look at the effects of voter perceptions of the national economy on voter support for Clinton. Second we look at the effects of candidate and voter positions on ideology and on a number of issues. Last, we examine whether respondents' views on other issues\u2014social issues such as abortion as well as issues revolving around entitlements and taxation that were emphasized by the campaigns\u2014played significant roles in this election. \n\nMethods: Multinomial probit analysis of the 1996 National Election Studies data; simulations based on counterfactual scenarios based on different macroeconomic conditions and different issue platforms of candidates. \n\nResults: The effects of economic perceptions are much greater than the effects of voter issue positions on the election outcome. Some social issues, namely abortion, did play a role in determining the election outcome. The presence of a third centrist candidate limited the ability of other candidates to improve their vote shares by moving in the issue space.", "date": "2017-08-14", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-170524063", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-170524063", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709327" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9413939" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709214" } ] }, "collection": "CaltechAUTHORS", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers", "value": "Social Science Working Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/80v4g-r5z56", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1021.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/80v4g-r5z56/files/sswp1021.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Nagler, Jonathan" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ycksa-pk633", "eprint_id": 80331, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 01:53:30", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 00:53:10", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Butterfield-T-L", "name": { "family": "Butterfield", "given": "Tara" } } ] }, "title": "The Resurgence of Nativism in California? The Case of Proposition 187 and Illegal Immigration", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "We thank Garrett Glasgow, Carol Pierannanzi, and Fang Wang for their helpful discussions and Gail Nash for her assistance. The John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation provided support for this research through a Faculty Fellowship to Alvarez. An earlier version of this work was presented at the Southern Political Science Association Annual Meetings, November 1996. \n\nPublished as Alvarez, R.M., & Butterfield, T.L. (2000). The resurgence of nativism in California? The case of Proposition 187 and illegal immigration. Social Science Quarterly, 167-179.\n\nSubmitted - sswp1020.pdf
", "abstract": "Theory: We argue that support among California voters for Proposition 187 in 1994 was an example of cyclical nativism. This nativism was provoked primarily by California's economic downturn during the early 1990s. \n\nHypotheses: We develop four specific hypotheses to explain how poor economic conditions in California and the consequent nativistic sentiments would result in support for Proposition 187:\n1. voters who believe that California's economic condition is poor will be more likely to support Proposition 187;\n2. voters who perceive themselves as being economically threatened by illegal immigrants will be more likely to support Proposition 187;\n3. voters with lower levels of education are more economically vulnerable and will be more likely to support Proposition 187;\n4. voters in Southern California feel more directly affected by illegal immigration and will be more likely to support Proposition 187.\nMethods: To test these hypotheses, we analyze voter exit poll data from the 1994 California election. We utilize a two-stage probit model to allow for the endogeneity which results from the politicization of illegal immigration during this election.\nResults: We find support for our hypotheses in the data. These findings cause us to conclude that nativism, fueled by economic conditions, was a salient factor leading many Californians to support Proposition 187.", "date": "2017-08-14", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-171514638", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-171514638", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/ycksa-pk633", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1020.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ycksa-pk633/files/sswp1020.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Butterfield, Tara" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1ea5s-rn272", "eprint_id": 80322, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 01:53:15", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 00:52:52", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "A New Approach for Modeling Strategic Voting in Multiparty Elections", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "This is one of many papers by the authors; the ordering of names reflects alphabetic convention. Alvarez's work was supported by the National Science Foundation through SBR-9709327; Nagler's work was supported by the National Science Foundation through SBR-9413939 and SBR-9709214. We thank Jonathan Katz and Guy Whitten for supplying helpful data for this project. We also thank Gary Cox, Jonathan Katz, Gary King and Burt Monroe for discussions of this subject. Last, we thank Shaun Bowler for his work with us on a related project. A previous version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meetings of the Midwest Political Science Association, April 1997. \n\nPublished as Alvarez, R.M., & Nagler, J. (2000). A new approach for modelling strategic voting in multiparty elections. British Journal of Political Science, 30(1), 57-75.\n\nPublished - sswp1023.pdf
", "abstract": "Whether voters vote strategically, using their vote to best further their interests, or vote sincerely, voting for their first choice among the alternatives, is a question of long-standing interest. We offer two innovations in searching for the answer to this question. First, we begin with a more consistent model of sincere voting in multiparty democratic systems than has been presented in the literature to date. Second, we incorporate new operationalizations of the objective potential for strategic behavior than have been used in the past. We offer a test of strategic voting in the 1987 British General Election based on the variance in strategic setting across constituencies in Britain. We allow voters to use available information in deciding whether or not to cast a strategic vote. We estimate a lower level of strategic voting than many other methods have estimated. We also demonstrate that the use of self-reported vote motivation causes errors in estimating the amount of strategic voting, and that this problem is exacerbated the further from the election the self-report is obtained.", "date": "2017-08-12", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-154700936", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-154700936", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709327" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9413939" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709214" } ] }, "collection": "CaltechAUTHORS", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers", "value": "Social Science Working Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/1ea5s-rn272", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1023.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1ea5s-rn272/files/sswp1023.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Nagler, Jonathan" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/q2n3t-eks05", "eprint_id": 80309, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 03:04:55", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 00:52:39", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Butterfield-T-L", "name": { "family": "Butterfield", "given": "Tara" } } ] }, "title": "Citizenship and Political Representation in Contemporary California", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Submitted - sswp1041.pdf
", "abstract": "[No abstract].", "date": "2017-08-11", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-144010317", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-144010317", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/q2n3t-eks05", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1041.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/q2n3t-eks05/files/sswp1041.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Butterfield, Tara" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/z83c6-bnc16", "eprint_id": 80304, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 04:35:33", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 00:52:31", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "McCaffery-E-J", "name": { "family": "McCaffery", "given": "Edward J." } } ] }, "title": "Gender and Tax", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Submitted - SSRN-id172985-1.pdf
Submitted - sswp1046.pdf
", "abstract": "It is well known that there is a gender gap in American politics: that men and women in the aggregate vote differently for presidential candidates, for example. The precise determinants of the gap are less well known. Using existing data, mainly 1996 general election exit polls, this article explores the gender gap in relation to tax issues. It finds that while men and women have broadly similar attitudes or \"primary preferences\" about tax questions, the weighing of tax as an issue -- the \"secondary preferences\" -- differ, with men attaching more importance to tax as an issue than women. This result suggests, inter alia, that framing of political issues matter, and that a successful candidate may appeal differentially to each gender on the basis of different policy issues.", "date": "2017-08-11", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-141048047", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-141048047", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.2139/ssrn.172985", "primary_object": { "basename": "SSRN-id172985-1.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/z83c6-bnc16/files/SSRN-id172985-1.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "sswp1046.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/z83c6-bnc16/files/sswp1046.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and McCaffery, Edward J." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/swzy5-vb688", "eprint_id": 80299, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 03:51:45", "lastmod": "2024-01-13 23:32:43", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } }, { "id": "Willette-J-R", "name": { "family": "Willette", "given": "Jennifer R." } } ] }, "title": "Measuring The Relative Impact of Issues and the Economy in Democratic Elections", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Prepared for presentation at the 1998 conference on Economics and Elections in Denmark. We thank participants at that conference, and Langche Zeng for helpful comments. Alvarez's work was supported by the National Science Foundation through SBR-9709327; Nagler's work was supported by the National Science Foundation through SBR-9413939 and SBR-9709214; and facilitated by his time in residence at the Center for Basic Research in Social Science at Harvard University. \n\nPublished as Alvarez, R.M., Nagler, J., & Willette, J.R. (2000). Measuring the relative impact of issues and the economy in democratic elections. Electoral Studies, 19(2), 237-253.\n\nSubmitted - sswp1052.pdf
", "abstract": "It is generally accepted that issues and economic outcomes influence elections. In this paper we analyze the relative importance of issues and the economy in Canadian elections. We estimate a model of the 1988 and 1993 Canadian elections in which we include voter evaluations of the parties on a variety of issues, and voter evaluations of the national economy and their personal finances. We demonstrate that it is possible to compare the effects of issues and the economy on election outcomes. And we put this in the context of the impact of issues and elections in several other democracies. We show that even in elections where other factors are dominant, we can still see the impact of economic voting. And we argue that given the tenuous connection between the actions of elected officials and macroeconomic outcomes, this suggests that voters may be giving elected officials undue leeway in their non-economic policy-making functions.", "date": "2017-08-11", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-132613359", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-132613359", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709327" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9413939" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709214" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/swzy5-vb688", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1052.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/swzy5-vb688/files/sswp1052.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Nagler, Jonathan; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/gmd9m-32904", "eprint_id": 80323, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 02:41:14", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 00:52:54", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Butterfield-T-L", "name": { "family": "Butterfield", "given": "Tara L." } } ] }, "title": "The Revolution Against Affirmative Action in California: Politics, Economics, and Proposition 209", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "We thank Manny Avalos for his helpful comments and Gail Nash for her assistance. The research reported in this paper was supported by the John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation, through a Faculty Fellowship to Alvarez.\n\nPublished - sswp1033.pdf
", "abstract": "We consider two possible explanations-economic anxiety and racial division for the appeal of Proposition 209 to California voters during the 1996 election. Voter support for this proposition has been attributed to racial differences in opinion and to economic anxiety caused by poor economic conditions in the state and the perceived threat that affirmative action presented in school admissions or the workplace. Because the presidential candidates campaigned on and debated the merits of affirmative action policy during this election, we incorporate this endogeneity into our analysis.\n\nWe develop two competing hypotheses to explain voter behavior: (1) if voters are blaming affirmative action for the state's economic conditions, then voters who believe that California's economic condition is poor or who perceive that their personal financial situation is worse will be more likely to support Proposition 209; and (2) if voters are, instead, divided along more traditional racial lines on the merits of affirmative action (winners versus losers), then whites, males, Republicans, and conservatives will be more likely to support Proposition 209, and other ethnic group members, females, Democrats, and liberals will be more likely to oppose Proposition 209.\n\nTo test these hypotheses, we analyze voter exit poll data from the 1996 California election. We utilize a two-stage logit model to allow for the endogeneity of candidate endorsements. We find support for the second of our two hypotheses. These findings cause us to conclude that racial division fueled by a fear of arbitrary exclusion prompted voter support for Proposition 209.", "date": "2017-08-11", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-154822248", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-154822248", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/gmd9m-32904", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1033.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/gmd9m-32904/files/sswp1033.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Butterfield, Tara L." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/h81hw-0pv50", "eprint_id": 80308, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 05:27:27", "lastmod": "2024-01-14 00:52:37", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Glasgow-G", "name": { "family": "Glasgow", "given": "Garrett" } } ] }, "title": "Uncertainty and Candidate Personality Traits", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "This paper was prepared for presentation at the Annual Meetings of the Midwest Political Science Association; we thank John Brehm and Charles Franklin for their comments. An earlier version of this research was presented in January 1996 to the NES Board of Overseers, and was titled \"Survey Measures of Uncertainty: A Report to the NES Board on the Use of `Certainty' Questions to Measure Uncertainty About Candidate Traits and Issue Positions.\" \n\nPublished as Glasgow, G., & Alvarez, R.M. (2000). Uncertainty and candidate personality traits. American Politics Quarterly, 28(1), 26-49.\n\nSubmitted - sswp1042.pdf
", "abstract": "[No abstract]", "date": "2017-08-11", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-143206034", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170811-143206034", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/h81hw-0pv50", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1042.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/h81hw-0pv50/files/sswp1042.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Glasgow, Garrett" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/f4t52-keg72", "eprint_id": 80257, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 04:18:55", "lastmod": "2024-01-13 23:32:24", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "Is the Sleeping Giant Awakening? Latinos and California Politics in the 1990's", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "x", "note": "An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois, April, 1999; we thank Karen Kaufman, Juan Carlos Huerta and Daron Shaw for their comments. We thank Tara Butterfield for her contributions on a related project; we also would like to acknowledge our discussions with Mark Baldassare. We use a great deal of data from different sources in this research: the media exit poll data we obtained either from the ICPSR or the Roper Center; our exit poll was made possible by the California Secretary of State; we thank Bill Jones, Beth Miller and Alfie Charles for their support of that polling enterprise; the PPIC Statewide Survey was obtained from the Public Policy Institute of California's web site at www.ppic.org and we thank the PPIC and Mark Baldassare for making the results from their public opinion polling of Californians available to the public. The authors can be reached at rma@crunch.caltech.edu and jnagler@latte.harvard.edu, respectively.\n\nSubmitted - sswp1064.pdf
", "abstract": "[No abstract]", "date": "2017-08-10", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170810-154207193", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170810-154207193", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/f4t52-keg72", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1064.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/f4t52-keg72/files/sswp1064.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Nagler, Jonathan" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/7aa2q-gbq89", "eprint_id": 80260, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 04:17:13", "lastmod": "2024-01-13 23:32:28", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Why Did Proposition 227 Pass?", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "This paper was prepared for presentation at the Research Workshop on Proposition 227 and Its Implementation, Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, University of California\u2014San Diego, January 13, 1999. I thank Wayne Cornelius for inviting me to write this paper, conference participants and panelists for their comments and questions about my presentation, Jonathan Nagler and the Alvarez and Nagler Political Research Group for the use of their exit poll data from the June 1998 primary election, and Tara L. Butterfield for her assistance on related research projects. The John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation provided some financial assistance for this project.\n\nSubmitted - sswp1062.pdf
", "abstract": "[No abstract]", "date": "2017-08-10", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170810-160250001", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170810-160250001", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/7aa2q-gbq89", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1062.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/7aa2q-gbq89/files/sswp1062.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/kdsp6-nwb86", "eprint_id": 79885, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 06:21:10", "lastmod": "2024-01-13 23:30:19", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Katz-J-N", "name": { "family": "Katz", "given": "Jonathan N." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-5287-3503" } ] }, "title": "Aggregation and Dynamics of Survey Responses: The Case of Presidential Approval", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Previous versions of this paper were presented at the 1996 Midwest Political Science Association Meetings and at the 1997 Southern California Political Methodology Program Conference at UCLA, and we thank participants in these conferences for their comments. We are grateful for discussions with David Grether. We thank Neal Beck and Simon Jackman for answering our questions about the presidential approval series, and sharing their data. We also thank John Aldrich for making available to us the 1988 Gallup Organization polling data. Katz thanks the John M. Olin Foundation for a faculty fellowship supporting his work.\n\nSubmitted - sswp1103.pdf
", "abstract": "In this paper we critique much of the empirical literature on the important political science concept of presidential approval. Much of the recent research on presidential approval has focused on the dynamic nature of approval; arguments have raged about whether presidential approval is integrated, co-integrated, or fractionally integrated. We argue that none of these time-series concepts, imported from an econometrics literature which has fundamentally different types of data than do political scientists, can apply to the presidential approval time series. Instead, we advocate careful use of aggregated approval as a time-series cross-section, or the use of individual-level survey responses. Ultimately most of the important hypotheses political scientists wish to test regarding presidential approval involve individual voters or citizens; thus we argue that using the appropriate data unit is the best methodology.", "date": "2017-08-08", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170807-164540519", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170807-164540519", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John M. Olin Foundation" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/kdsp6-nwb86", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1103.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/kdsp6-nwb86/files/sswp1103.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Katz, Jonathan N." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/rvqnd-8b595", "eprint_id": 79889, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 07:23:40", "lastmod": "2024-01-13 23:30:23", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "McCaffery-E-J", "name": { "family": "McCaffery", "given": "Edward J." } } ] }, "title": "Is there a Gender Gap in Fiscal Political Preferences?", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "We thank the University of Southern California Center for Law, Communications, and Public Policy for a research grant that made our survey research possible. Alvarez thanks the IBM Corporation for supporting his research through the University Matching Grants Program. This paper was presented at the 2000 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association.\n\nSubmitted - SSRN-id240502.pdf
Submitted - sswp1101.pdf
", "abstract": "This paper examines the relationship between attitudes on potential uses of the budget surplus and gender. Survey results show relatively weak support overall for using a projected surplus to reduce taxes, with respondents much likelier to prefer increased social spending on education or social security. There is a significant gender gap with men being far more likely than women to support tax cuts or paying down the national debt. Given a menu of particular types of tax cuts, women are marginally more likely to favor childcare relief or working poor tax credits whereas men are marginally more likely to favor capital gains reduction or tax rate cuts. When primed that the tax laws are biased against two-worker families, men significantly change their preferences, moving from support for general tax rate cuts to support for working poor tax relief, but not to child-care relief. One of the strongest results to emerge is that women are far more likely than men not to express an opinion or to confess ignorance about fiscal matters. Both genders increase their \"no opinion\" answer in the face of priming, but men more so than women. Further research will explore this no opinion/uncertainty aspect.", "date": "2017-08-08", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170807-170314367", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170807-170314367", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "University of Southern California" }, { "agency": "IBM" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.2139/ssrn.240502", "primary_object": { "basename": "SSRN-id240502.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/rvqnd-8b595/files/SSRN-id240502.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "sswp1101.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/rvqnd-8b595/files/sswp1101.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and McCaffery, Edward J." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/18d7a-3sg98", "eprint_id": 79867, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 07:23:29", "lastmod": "2024-01-13 23:30:00", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Garcia-Bedolla-L", "name": { "family": "Garcia Bedolla", "given": "Lisa" } } ] }, "title": "The Foundations of Latino Voter Partisanship: Evidence from the 2000 Election", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "We acknowledge the Knight-Ridder News Organization, in particular the Knight-Ridder Washington Bureau, the San Jose Mercury News, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, and the Miami Herald, for providing us with the 2000 Latino Voter Survey. Specifically we thank Nadine Selden and Mary Anne Ostrom from Knight-Ridder for their assistance. We also thank Jonathan Nagler for his assistance with the 2000 Latino Voter Survey. Alvarez thanks the IBM Corporation for supporting his research through the University Matching Grants Program. \n\nPublished as Alvarez, R.M., & Bedolla, L.G. (2003). The foundations of Latino voter partisanship: Evidence from the 2000 election. Journal of Politics, 65(1), 31-49.\n\nSubmitted - sswp1115.pdf
", "abstract": "Traditionally, the Latino electorate has been considered to be Democratic in partisan affiliation. However, during the 2000 presidential election there were many efforts made by the Republican Party to court Latino voters, suggesting that perhaps Latino voters may be becoming more Republican in orientation. Using a telephone survey of Latino likely voters conducted in the 2000 election, we examine three different sets of correlates of Latino voter partisanship: social and demographic, issue and ideological, and economic. We find that Latino voter partisanship is strongly structured by social and demographic, as well as issue and ideological, factors. We also find that while it is unlikely that changes in economic factors or abortion attitudes will significantly change which parties the different Latino nation-origin groups identify with, it is possible that changes in ideological positions regarding the role of government in providing social services could result in significant changes in Latino party identification.", "date": "2017-08-07", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170807-150102415", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170807-150102415", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "IBM" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/18d7a-3sg98", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1115.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/18d7a-3sg98/files/sswp1115.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Garcia Bedolla, Lisa" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/b3tkd-t8744", "eprint_id": 79546, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 11:28:26", "lastmod": "2024-01-13 23:25:51", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Katz-Gabriel", "name": { "family": "Katz", "given": "Gabriel" }, "orcid": "0000-0001-5970-2769" } ] }, "title": "A Bayesian multinomial probit analysis of voter choice in Chile's 2005 Presidential election", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Bayesian multinomial probit, Chile; multi-candidate elections", "note": "Revised version: Original: December 2007\n\nSubmitted - sswp1287_-_revised.pdf
", "abstract": "The profound transformations in Chile's party structure since 1989 has led several authors to examine the main cleavages shaping partisan divide and the impact of different factors on citizens' party preferences. No study, however, has examined the influence of these factors on actual vote choice. We implement a Bayesian multinomial probit model to analyze voter choice in Chile's 2005 election. We show that the authoritarian-democratic cleavage dominated voter choice, with socio-demographic variables playing a less important role. We also find that the presence of a second conservative candidate significantly affected citizens' electoral behavior, increasing the support for the right and influencing the electoral outcome in a way that cannot be accounted for by analyses focused exclusively on citizens' party identification.", "date": "2017-08-02", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170728-134342343", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170728-134342343", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/b3tkd-t8744", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1287_-_revised.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/b3tkd-t8744/files/sswp1287_-_revised.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Katz, Gabriel" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/wn44k-gkd25", "eprint_id": 79512, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 23:05:09", "lastmod": "2024-01-13 23:25:39", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Bailey-D", "name": { "family": "Bailey", "given": "Delia" } }, { "id": "Katz-J-N", "name": { "family": "Katz", "given": "Jonathan N." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-5287-3503" } ] }, "title": "An Empirical Bayes Approach to Estimating Ordinal Treatment Effects", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Published as Alvarez, R. M., Bailey, D., & Katz, J. N. (2010). An empirical Bayes approach to estimating ordinal treatment effects. Political Analysis, 19(1), 20-31.\n\nSubmitted - sswp1293.pdf
", "abstract": "Ordinal variables\u2014categorical variables with a defined order to the categories, but without equal spacing between them\u2014are frequently used in social science applications. Although a good deal of research exists on the proper modeling of ordinal response variables, there is not a clear directive as to how to model ordinal treatment variables. The usual approaches found in the literature for using ordinal treatment variables are either to use fully unconstrained, though additive, ordinal group indicators or to use a numeric predictor constrained to be continuous. Generalized additive models are a useful exception to these assumptions (Beck and Jackman 1998). In contrast to the generalized additive modeling approach, we propose the use of a Bayesian shrinkage estimator to model ordinal treatment variables. The estimator we discuss in this paper allows the model to contain both individual group level indicators and a continuous predictor. In contrast to traditionally used shrinkage models that pull the data toward a common mean, we use a linear model as the basis. Thus, each individual effect can be arbitrary, but the model \"shrinks\" the estimates toward a linear ordinal framework according to the data. We demonstrate the estimator on two political science examples: the impact of voter identification requirements on turnout (Alvarez, Bailey, and Katz 2007), and the impact of the frequency of religious service attendance on the liberality of abortion attitudes (e.g., Singh and Leahy 1978, Tedrow and Mahoney 1979, Combs and Welch 1982).", "date": "2017-08-02", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170727-161733786", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170727-161733786", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.7907/wn44k-gkd25", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1293.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/wn44k-gkd25/files/sswp1293.pdf" }, "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Bailey, Delia; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/a4nx9-8pq40", "eprint_id": 79573, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 21:57:45", "lastmod": "2024-01-13 23:26:24", "type": "monograph", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Bailey-D", "name": { "family": "Bailey", "given": "Delia" } }, { "id": "Katz-J-N", "name": { "family": "Katz", "given": "Jonathan N." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-5287-3503" } ] }, "title": "The Effect of Voter Identification Laws on Turnout", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Also known as VTP Working Paper #57. \n\nThis paper replaces an earlier version with the same title that was distributed October, 2007. Previous versions of this paper were presented at the 2007 Summer Methods Meeting, The Society for Political Methodology, Pennsylvania State University; the 2007 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois; and at the Second Annual Conference on Empirical Legal Studies, New York University Law School. We thank Shigeo Hirano, Thad Hall, and Andrew Martin who provided comments at each conference respectively, as well as conference participants. We also thank Clark Benson, Andrew Gelman, Sam Hirsch, and Nate Persily for helpful comments and conversations. We thank the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation for their support of our research through grants to the Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project. The analysis presented here, and the interpretations of our analysis, are those of the authors and not of the Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project, nor the foundations supporting this research. Please note that Katz has served as an expert witness in two lawsuits involving voter identification requirements, however the research presented here was neither funded by any interested party to those lawsuits nor discussed in court testimony.\n\nSubmitted - SSRN-id1084598.pdf
Submitted - sswp1267_-_revised.pdf
", "abstract": "Since the passage of the \"Help America Vote Act\" in 2002, nearly half of the states have adopted a variety of new identification requirements for voter registration and participation by the 2006 general election. There has been little analysis of whether these requirements reduce voter participation, especially among certain classes of voters. In this paper we document the effect of voter identification requirements on registered voters as they were imposed in states in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, and in the 2002 and 2006 midterm elections. Looking first at trends in the aggregate data, we find no evidence that voter identification requirements reduce participation. Using individual-level data from the Current Population Survey across these elections, however, we find that the strictest forms of voter identification requirements\u2014combination requirements of presenting an identification card and positively matching one's signature with a signature either on file or on the identification card, as well as requirements to show picture identification\u2014have a negative impact on the participation of registered voters relative to the weakest requirement, stating one's name. We also find find evidence that the stricter voter identification requirements depress turnout to a greater extent for less educated and lower income populations, for both minorities and non-minorities.", "date": "2017-08-01", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "California Institute of Technology", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170728-165011731", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170728-165011731", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Carnegie Corporation of New York" }, { "agency": "John S. and James L. Knight Foundation" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.2139/ssrn.1084598", "primary_object": { "basename": "SSRN-id1084598.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/a4nx9-8pq40/files/SSRN-id1084598.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "sswp1267_-_revised.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/a4nx9-8pq40/files/sswp1267_-_revised.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "monograph", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Bailey, Delia; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/fvpz3-37669", "eprint_id": 79131, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 04:05:57", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 15:10:18", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Hadjikhani-N", "name": { "family": "Hadjikhani", "given": "Nouchine" } }, { "id": "Lin-Chujun", "name": { "family": "Lin", "given": "Chujun" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-7605-6508" }, { "id": "Adolphs-R", "name": { "family": "Adolphs", "given": "Ralph" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8053-9692" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Cultural effects on the association between election outcomes and face-based trait inferences", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2017 Lin et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. \n\nReceived: January 28, 2017; Accepted: June 22, 2017; Published: July 10, 2017. \n\nData Availability Statement: All data generated from the laboratory experiments include participants' judgments about the stimuli and response time can be accessed at https://osf.io/qx54t/?view_only=f504dcb528aa4546a2b01ee9e54f72b3. \n\nThis work was supported by Discretionary Caltech research funds. The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. \n\nThe authors have declared that no competing interests exist.\n\nWe thank Nicholas Rule, Jinkyung Na, and Alice O'Toole for sharing candidate images; Shinsuke Shimojo for sharing facilities; Lynn Paul, Ben Gillen, and Robert Sherman for helpful conversations; Duk Gyoo Kim, Euncheol Shin, and Han Seo for subject recruitment; Daw-An Wu and Shuo Wang for technology support; and Barbara Estrada for administrative support. \n\nAuthor Contributions: \nConceptualization: Chujun Lin, Ralph Adolphs, R. Michael Alvarez.\nData curation: Chujun Lin, Ralph Adolphs, R. Michael Alvarez.\nFormal analysis: Chujun Lin, R. Michael Alvarez.\nFunding acquisition: Ralph Adolphs, R. Michael Alvarez.\nInvestigation: Chujun Lin.\nMethodology: Chujun Lin, Ralph Adolphs, R. Michael Alvarez.\nProject administration: Chujun Lin, Ralph Adolphs, R. Michael Alvarez.\nResources: Chujun Lin, Ralph Adolphs, R. Michael Alvarez.\nSoftware: Chujun Lin.\nSupervision: Ralph Adolphs, R. Michael Alvarez.\nValidation: Chujun Lin, Ralph Adolphs, R. Michael Alvarez.\nVisualization: Chujun Lin, Ralph Adolphs, R. Michael Alvarez.\nWriting \u00b1 original draft: Chujun Lin.\nWriting \u00b1 review & editing: Chujun Lin, Ralph Adolphs, R. Michael Alvarez.\n\nPublished - journal.pone.0180837.pdf
Supplemental Material - S1Table.pdf
Supplemental Material - S2Table.pdf
", "abstract": "How competent a politician looks, as assessed in the laboratory, is correlated with whether the politician wins in real elections. This finding has led many to investigate whether the association between candidate appearances and election outcomes transcends cultures. However, these studies have largely focused on European countries and Caucasian candidates. To the best of our knowledge, there are only four cross-cultural studies that have directly investigated how face-based trait inferences correlate with election outcomes across Caucasian and Asian cultures. These prior studies have provided some initial evidence regarding cultural differences, but methodological problems and inconsistent findings have complicated our understanding of how culture mediates the effects of candidate appearances on election outcomes. Additionally, these four past studies have focused on positive traits, with a relative neglect of negative traits, resulting in an incomplete picture of how culture may impact a broader range of trait inferences. To study Caucasian-Asian cultural effects with a more balanced experimental design, and to explore a more complete profile of traits, here we compared how Caucasian and Korean participants' inferences of positive and negative traits correlated with U.S. and Korean election outcomes. Contrary to previous reports, we found that inferences of competence (made by participants from both cultures) correlated with both U.S. and Korean election outcomes. Inferences of open-mindedness and threat, two traits neglected in previous cross-cultural studies, were correlated with Korean but not U.S. election outcomes. This differential effect was found in trait judgments made by both Caucasian and Korean participants. Interestingly, the faster the participants made face-based trait inferences, the more strongly those inferences were correlated with real election outcomes. These findings provide new insights into cultural effects and the difficult question of causality underlying the association between facial inferences and election outcomes. We also discuss the implications for political science and cognitive psychology.", "date": "2017-07-10", "date_type": "published", "publication": "PLoS ONE", "volume": "12", "number": "7", "publisher": "Public Library of Science", "pagerange": "Art. No. e0180837", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170717-140118508", "issn": "1932-6203", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170717-140118508", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Caltech" } ] }, "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0180837", "pmcid": "PMC5507274", "primary_object": { "basename": "S1Table.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/fvpz3-37669/files/S1Table.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "S2Table.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/fvpz3-37669/files/S2Table.pdf" }, { "basename": "journal.pone.0180837.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/fvpz3-37669/files/journal.pone.0180837.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2017", "author_list": "Hadjikhani, Nouchine; Lin, Chujun; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/f6cwq-6ab08", "eprint_id": 71713, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 18:14:14", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 17:00:06", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Vassil-K", "name": { "family": "Vassil", "given": "Kristjan" } }, { "id": "Solvak-M", "name": { "family": "Solvak", "given": "Mihkel" } }, { "id": "Vinkel-P", "name": { "family": "Vinkel", "given": "Priit" } }, { "id": "Trechsel-A-H", "name": { "family": "Trechsel", "given": "Alexander H." } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "The diffusion of internet voting. Usage patterns of internet voting in Estonia between 2005 and 2015", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Internet voting; E-voting; Diffusion; Voting behavior", "note": "\u00a9 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). \n\nReceived 28 December 2015; Received in revised form 21 June 2016; Accepted 22 June 2016; Available online 12 July 2016. \n\nThis research was supported by Estonian Research Council grant nr. PUT523.\n\nPublished - 1-s2.0-S0740624X1630096X-main.pdf
", "abstract": "E-voting has the potential to lower participation thresholds and increase turnout, but its technical complexity may produce other barriers to participation. Using Rogers' theory of the diffusion of innovations, we examined how the use of e-voting has changed over time. Data from eight e-enabled elections between 2005 and 2015 in Estonia, were used to investigate changes to the profile of e-voters and contrast them to those voting by conventional means. Owing to the aggregate share of e-voters increasing with each election, with one third of voters now casting their vote remotely over the internet, there was a lack of conclusive evidence regarding whether the new voting technology had diffused homogenously among the voting population, or remained a channel for the resourceful and privileged. Our findings show that diffusion has taken place, but not until after the first three e-enabled elections. Thus, internet voting has the potential to be used by a wide range of voter types, bridge societal divisions, and emerge as an inclusive innovative voting technology.", "date": "2016-07", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Government Information Quarterly", "volume": "33", "number": "3", "publisher": "Elsevier", "pagerange": "453-459", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20161103-131504908", "issn": "0740-624X", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20161103-131504908", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Estonian Research Council", "grant_number": "PUT523" } ] }, "doi": "10.1016/j.giq.2016.06.007", "primary_object": { "basename": "1-s2.0-S0740624X1630096X-main.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/f6cwq-6ab08/files/1-s2.0-S0740624X1630096X-main.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2016", "author_list": "Vassil, Kristjan; Solvak, Mihkel; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/vmc44-g4m69", "eprint_id": 67422, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 10:43:22", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 21:10:38", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Levin-I", "name": { "family": "Levin", "given": "Ines" } }, { "id": "Sinclair-J-A", "name": { "family": "Sinclair", "given": "J. Andrew" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Participation in the Wake of Adversity: Blame Attribution and Policy-Oriented Evaluations", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Economic adversity \u2013 Policy-oriented evaluations \u2013 Health care reform \u2013 Blame attribution \u2013 Budget process \u2013 Political participation \u2013 Civic engagement", "note": "\u00a9 2016 Springer US.\n\nSupplemental Material - 11109_2015_9316_MOESM1_ESM.docx
", "abstract": "In this paper we investigate to what extent perceptions of economic conditions, policy-oriented evaluations, and blame attribution affected Californians' involvement in political activities in 2010. We use a statistical methodology that allows us to study not only the behavior of the average citizen, but also the behavior of \"types\" of citizens with latent predispositions that incline them toward participation or abstention. The 2010 election is an excellent case study, because it was a period when citizens were still suffering the consequences of the 2008 financial crisis and many were concerned about the state's budgetary crisis. We find that individuals who blamed one of the parties for the problems with the budget process, and who held a position on the 2010 Affordable Care Act, were often considerably more likely to participate. We also find, however, that the impact of economic evaluations, positions on the health care reform, and blame attributions was contingent on citizens' latent participation propensities and depended on the class of political activity.", "date": "2016-03", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Behavior", "volume": "38", "number": "1", "publisher": "Springer", "pagerange": "203-228", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160527-085039593", "issn": "0190-9320", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160527-085039593", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1007/s11109-015-9316-6", "primary_object": { "basename": "11109_2015_9316_MOESM1_ESM.docx", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/vmc44-g4m69/files/11109_2015_9316_MOESM1_ESM.docx" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2016", "author_list": "Levin, Ines; Sinclair, J. Andrew; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/83css-53d94", "eprint_id": 62748, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 08:09:09", "lastmod": "2023-10-25 17:22:24", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Atkeson-L-R", "name": { "family": "Atkeson", "given": "Lonna Rae" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Hall-T-E", "name": { "family": "Hall", "given": "Thad E." } } ] }, "title": "Voter Confidence: How to Measure It and How It Differs from Government Support", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2015 Mary Ann Liebert. \n\nOnline Ahead of Print: June 18, 2015.", "abstract": "Voters are often trusting of elections, but distrustful of government. We test whether voter confidence represents a different measure of system support from trust in government and external efficacy. Theoretically, we describe the inherent differences in these measures as one reason to suspect they are so. Empirically, we consider frequency distributions, crosstabs, exploratory factor analysis, reliability tests, and regression analysis to determine the independent validity of each system support measure. We find strong theoretical and empirical evidence to support that voter confidence is different from other system support measures previously studied and examined. As such, it is an important new area of scholarship.", "date": "2015-09-08", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy", "volume": "14", "number": "3", "publisher": "Mary Ann Liebert", "pagerange": "207-219", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20151209-132157599", "issn": "1533-1296", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20151209-132157599", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1089/elj.2014.0293", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2015", "author_list": "Atkeson, Lonna Rae; Alvarez, R. Michael; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/jgy9v-yh106", "eprint_id": 58203, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 15:38:40", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 19:09:19", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Boehmke-F-J", "name": { "family": "Boehmke", "given": "Frederick J." } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Where the good signatures are: Signature collection and initiative qualification in California", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "Direct democracy; Initiatives; Signature collection", "note": "\u00a9 2014 Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of Western Social Science Association.\n\nReceived 26 April 2013; Received in revised form 4 June 2014; Accepted 4 June 2014; Available online 29 June 2014. \n\nWe wish to thank Alex Chang for his assistance with data collection and Shaun Bowler for his comments on earlier versions of this research. We also thank John Mott-Smith and the California Secretary of State's Office for providing us access to the data we use in this paper.", "abstract": "Using data from eight recent California initiatives and data provided by the California Secretary of State's Office, this research explores the geographic source of signatures and their distribution across counties, investigates both total signatures and valid signatures, and presents a regression analysis to study how characteristics of counties relate to the number of signatures gathered. The findings indicate a high rate of equity in the distribution of signature gathering and little demographic targeting across measures. The study also finds that a variety of social and political factors influence the number of total and valid signatures across counties, though the results are more consistent for the former.", "date": "2015-06", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Social Science Journal", "volume": "52", "number": "2", "publisher": "Elsevier", "pagerange": "248-257", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20150611-145748293", "issn": "0362-3319", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20150611-145748293", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1016/j.soscij.2014.06.001", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2015", "author_list": "Boehmke, Frederick J. and Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/62mc1-40k30", "eprint_id": 53572, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 03:49:05", "lastmod": "2023-10-19 21:52:37", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Atkeson-L-R", "name": { "family": "Atkeson", "given": "Lonna Rae" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Hall-T-E", "name": { "family": "Hall", "given": "Thad E." } }, { "id": "Sinclair-J-A", "name": { "family": "Sinclair", "given": "J. Andrew" } } ] }, "title": "Balancing Fraud Prevention and Electoral Participation: Attitudes Toward Voter Identification", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 2014 by the Southwestern Social Science Association. Article first published online: 22 Aug 2014.", "abstract": "Objective. This article examines public opinion on the effectiveness and consequences of voter identification laws, focusing on the core issue in the Supreme Court's reasoning in the 2008 case that upheld an Indiana photo-ID law, Crawford v. Marion County Election Board. Method. We use a unique survey from New Mexico, where voter identification policies have recently undergone important changes. Questions in the survey examine whether voters think that ID laws protect against fraud and prevent legitimate participation, which point of view voters find more compelling, and whether attitudes toward voter identification are related to voter confidence. Results. Most voters think that voter ID laws prevent fraud, but many voters think that ensuring access to the polls is more important than preventing fraud. Among other variables that explain differences among individuals, partisanship plays an important role. Conclusion. The framing of voter identification policies plays an important role in how such laws are interpreted by the public and Republicans are especially concerned about fraud in elections.", "date": "2014-12", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Social Science Quarterly", "volume": "95", "number": "5", "publisher": "Wiley", "pagerange": "1381-1398", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20150112-112650283", "issn": "0038-4941", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20150112-112650283", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1111/ssqu.12110", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2014", "author_list": "Atkeson, Lonna Rae; Alvarez, R. Michael; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/cheva-1h550", "eprint_id": 60520, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 13:50:14", "lastmod": "2023-10-24 16:37:22", "type": "book_section", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Pomares-J", "name": { "family": "Pomares", "given": "Julia" } }, { "id": "Levin-I", "name": { "family": "Levin", "given": "Ines" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Lopez-Mirau-G", "name": { "family": "Lopez Mirau", "given": "Guillermo" } }, { "id": "Ovejero-T", "name": { "family": "Ovejero", "given": "Teresa" } } ] }, "title": "From Piloting to Roll-out: Voting Experience and Trust in the First Full e-election in Argentina", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "e-voting; confidence; usability; Latin America; Argentina", "note": "\u00a9 2014 International Conference on Electronic Voting EVOTE2014, E-Voting.CC GmbH.\n\nWe would like to thank the Voting Technology Project (CALTECH/MIT), Micromata, and Charles Stewart for their support to present this work at the EVOTE 2014.", "abstract": "Despite the conventional wisdom that e-voting\nwould take place first in established democracies and later in\ndeveloping countries, the speed of implementation has been\nhigher in the developing world, especially in Latin America,\nwith several countries such as Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina\nand Ecuador implementing e-voting methods. This paper looks\nat the experience of Salta, the first Argentine district rolling\nout e-voting for the entire electorate in 2013. Based on a survey\nof 1,000 voters in the 2013 provincial elections, the voter's\nexperience and confidence in the election process is analyzed.\nAmong the key findings, there is a strong effect of a voter's\nability to use the voting machine without assistance on the\noverall support for e-voting and positive perceptions of\nintegrity in the election process. These results have both\ntheoretical and policy implications.", "date": "2014-10", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "IEEE", "place_of_pub": "Piscataway, NJ", "pagerange": "1-10", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20150925-111401246", "isbn": "978-3-200-03697-0", "book_title": "6th International Conference on Electronic Voting: Verifying the Vote", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20150925-111401246", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "contributors": { "items": [ { "id": "Krimmer-R", "name": { "family": "Krimmer", "given": "Robert" } }, { "id": "Volkamer-M", "name": { "family": "Volkamer", "given": "Melanie" } } ] }, "doi": "10.1109/EVOTE.2014.7001136", "resource_type": "book_section", "pub_year": "2014", "author_list": "Pomares, Julia; Levin, Ines; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/vp6j1-s1y64", "eprint_id": 50307, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 03:05:19", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 22:55:07", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Atkeson-L-R", "name": { "family": "Atkeson", "given": "Lonna Rae" } }, { "id": "Kerevel-Y-P", "name": { "family": "Kerevel", "given": "Yann P." } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Hall-T-E", "name": { "family": "Hall", "given": "Thad E." } } ] }, "title": "Who Asks For Voter Identification? Explaining Poll-Worker Discretion", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2014 Southern Political Science Association.\n\nPublished online: 30 July 2014.\n\nSupport for this research was provided by the Pew\nCenter on the States and the JEHT Foundation.\nWe thank the following election officials for their\nassistance: Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse\nOliver and her Deputy Robert Adams, Do\u00f1a Ana\nCounty Clerk Lynn Ellins, San Juan County Clerks\nFran Hanhardt and Debbie Holmes, Santa Fe County\nClerk Valerie Espinoza and her Deputy Denise Lamb,\nNew Mexico Secretary of State Mary Herrera, and\nresearch assistants Lisa A. Bryant and David Odegard.\n\nPublished - S0022381614000528a.pdf
Supplemental Material - displaySuppMaterial.docx
", "abstract": "As street-level bureaucrats, poll workers bear the primary responsibility for implementing voter identification requirements. Voter identification requirements are not implemented equally across groups of voters, and poll workers exercise substantial discretion in how they apply election law. In states with minimal and varying identification requirements, poll workers appear to treat especially minority voters differently, requesting more stringent voter identification. We explain why poll workers are different from other street-level bureaucrats and how traditional mechanisms of control have little impact on limiting poll-worker discretion. We test why many poll workers appear not to follow the law using a post-election survey of New Mexico poll workers. We find little evidence that race, training, or partisanship matters. Instead, poll worker attitudes toward photo-identification policies and their educational attainment influences implementation of voter-identification laws.", "date": "2014-10", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Journal of Politics", "volume": "76", "number": "4", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "944-957", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20141009-102935121", "issn": "0022-3816", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20141009-102935121", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Pew Center on the States" }, { "agency": "JEHT Foundation" } ] }, "doi": "10.1017/S0022381614000528", "primary_object": { "basename": "displaySuppMaterial.docx", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/vp6j1-s1y64/files/displaySuppMaterial.docx" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "S0022381614000528a.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/vp6j1-s1y64/files/S0022381614000528a.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2014", "author_list": "Atkeson, Lonna Rae; Kerevel, Yann P.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/5hr20-xtj73", "eprint_id": 102114, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 11:38:25", "lastmod": "2023-12-01 00:25:47", "type": "conference_item", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Pianzola-J", "name": { "family": "Pianzola", "given": "Jo\u00eblle" } }, { "id": "Trechsel-A-H", "name": { "family": "Trechsel", "given": "Alexander H." } }, { "id": "Schwerdt-G", "name": { "family": "Schwerdt", "given": "Guido" } }, { "id": "Vassil-K", "name": { "family": "Vassil", "given": "Kristjan" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "The Effect of Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) on Political Preferences - Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 Copyright by the American Political Science Association
\n\nPosted: 15 Jul 2012 Last revised: 4 Jul 2014
\n\nSubmitted - SSRN-id2108095.pdf
", "abstract": "Can online Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) that match voters to candidates and parties based on issue congruence influence voters' political preferences? To address this question, we conducted a field experiment with University students during the 2011 Swiss federal elections and examine whether voters who used the Swiss VAA smartvote prior to the elections were more likely to adapt their initial party preferences.
smartvote is an online web tool that enables voters to match their issue preferences to those of parties and candidates running for office, providing voters with custom made voting recommendations. Moreover, the tool allows voters to visualize their political position in the political landscape and compare their position to the political offer. The VAA gives unprecedented access to detailed political information and lets voters systematically compare electoral alternatives. Given these unique opportunities offered by the VAA, we analyze whether the revelation of \"objective\" preferences by the voting recommendation initiates changes in \"subjective\" preferences of voters.
Decades of research on political behavior indicate that voters' knowledge of and interest in politics is fairly limited and that political preferences are therefore highly amenable to (additional) information. Hence, we expect that voters who have their policy matches revealed by smartvote to be more likely to reconsider previously held convictions and consequently show changes in their political preference structure. We argue that VAAs can reinforce and rearrange pre-existing preferences. Employing the common political preference measure of an individual's propensity to vote (ptv) for specific parties, we ascertain whether the smartvote voting recommendation caused voters to adapt their ptv scores for the running parties in the election.
To empirically test these assumptions, we conducted a randomized field experiment during the 2011 Swiss federal elections among 2'000 University students in Switzerland. The treatment group received * Contact: pianzola@nccr-democracy.uzh.ch an email invitation to use smartvote before elections, providing survey participants with a personalized login for the website. The control group did not receive such an invitation. We measured the baseline characteristics and political preferences of both groups before and after the elections by means of an online survey.
Given the randomized treatment assignment and the panel structure of the experiment, the data allows us to estimate the causal effect of smartvote use on political preferences. Due to non-compliance in the sample, we identify local average treatment effects for compliers. We find significant changes in the awarded scores for the top party preference among smartvote users. The assigned ptv score for the top party preferences increases significantly among those voters who used smartvote. Among those who changed their top party ptv score, most remained with the same party choice. Thus, in case of the most preferred party, smartvote use seems to reinforce pre-existing preferences. We do not only find a strengthening of the top party preference but also a multiplication thereof. Voters who consulted the tool report higher likelihoods for considering alternative choice options at elections. smartvote users, compared to non-users, are significantly more likely to change their initial preferences from a single most favored party to multiple highly preferred parties. In other words, being exposed to detailed information about vote alternatives seems to incline voters to consider these alternative options more closely and include the closest ones as part of their future choice set. These systematic shifts among smartvote users present empirical evidence for a causal effect of VAA use on political preferences.
", "date": "2014-07-04", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "American Political Science Association", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20200326-082113579", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200326-082113579", "primary_object": { "basename": "SSRN-id2108095.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/5hr20-xtj73/files/SSRN-id2108095.pdf" }, "resource_type": "conference_item", "pub_year": "2014", "author_list": "Pianzola, Jo\u00eblle; Trechsel, Alexander H.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/fkmc4-8xw03", "eprint_id": 49053, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 01:02:40", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 20:38:03", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Atkeson-L-R", "name": { "family": "Atkeson", "given": "Lonna Rae" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Introduction to Political Analysis Mini-Symposium on Advances in Survey Methodology", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 2014 The Author. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology.\n\nEdited by Jonathan Katz.\n\nAdvance Access publication May 28, 2014.", "abstract": "Over the last decade the survey environment has been rapidly changing, creating new opportunities and new challenges for survey methodologists. These include: relatively low response among all contact modes and designs; the rapid replacement of landline telephones for mobile and smart phones; the integration of new and different types of data for sampling and new sampling methods; the use of different survey interview modes; how to study behaviors and opinions about sensitive topics; and the development of survey designs for experts and opinion leaders. All have implications for data quality and for our ability to consistently and reliably answer substantive and theoretical questions about politics and society. \n\nObviously, a comprehensive survey of how survey methodologists are advancing new approaches to deal with this vast array of challenges and opportunities is not possible in a mini-symposium in Political Analysis. Nevertheless, in this Mini-Symposium on Advances in Survey Methodology, we include five papers that focus on new directions that survey methodologists, especially those working in political science, are developing in response to the changing environment.", "date": "2014-05-28", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Analysis", "volume": "22", "number": "3", "publisher": "Oxford University Press", "pagerange": "281-284", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20140829-090841617", "issn": "1047-1987", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20140829-090841617", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1093/pan/mpu006", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2014", "author_list": "Atkeson, Lonna Rae and Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/kq3hw-q1x31", "eprint_id": 49063, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 01:02:49", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:06:48", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Atkeson-L-R", "name": { "family": "Atkeson", "given": "Lonna Rae" } }, { "id": "Adams-A-N", "name": { "family": "Adams", "given": "Alex N." } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Nonresponse and Mode Effects in Self- and Interviewer-Administered Surveys", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology. All rights reserved. \nEdited by Jasjeet Sekhon. \nAdvance Access publication May 28, 2014. \nFunding for this research was provided by the Pew Charitable Trusts' Center on the States and the JEHT Foundation's Make Voting Work Initiative.", "abstract": "We examine the quality of two probability-based polls, one interviewer administered (telephone) and one self-administered (Internet and mail mixed mode survey). The polls use the same sampling frame (registered voters) and the same questions. First, we examine the representativeness of both surveys using information known about the population, and although we find important differences between the two in terms of sampling and nonresponse bias, we also find that both surveys represent the underlying population despite low response rates. We also test for mode effects between surveys due to social desirability and how it influences nondifferentiation or satisficing. Using a variety of methods (t-tests, multivariate regression, and genetic propensity matching), we find evidence that the presence of an interviewer alters response patterns on ego-driven questions. The implications of our work are important, due to the increasing popularity of mixed mode surveys. Researchers need to be methodologically sensitive to these differences when analyzing surveys that allow for different response modes.", "date": "2014-05-28", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Analysis", "volume": "22", "number": "3", "publisher": "Oxford University Press", "pagerange": "304-320", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20140829-105830425", "issn": "1047-1987", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20140829-105830425", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Pew Charitable Trust Center" }, { "agency": "JEHT Foundation" } ] }, "doi": "10.1093/pan/mpt049", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2014", "author_list": "Atkeson, Lonna Rae; Adams, Alex N.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/0m024-nv937", "eprint_id": 46603, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 11:52:05", "lastmod": "2023-10-26 19:52:13", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Levin-I", "name": { "family": "Levin", "given": "Ines" } }, { "id": "Mair-P", "name": { "family": "Mair", "given": "Peter" } }, { "id": "Trechsel-A", "name": { "family": "Trechsel", "given": "Alexander" } } ] }, "title": "Party preferences in the digital age: The impact of voting advice applications", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "election campaigns; Internet; party preferences; representation; voting advice applications", "note": "\u00a9 2014 The Authors.\n\nPaper submitted 20 January 2013; accepted for publication 15 December 2013.\n\nPublished online before print February 9, 2014.\n\nFunding:\nThis research received no specific grant from any funding agency\nin the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.\n\nAcknowledgements:\nThe idea for a pan-European Voting Advice Application originated\nduring a Departmental Seminar session at the European\nUniversity Institute in 2007. As Head of Department, Peter Mair\nchaired the session and from that moment became one of the leaders\nof the large-scale EU Profiler project. His intellectual energy\nand his dedication (he travelled to Antwerp and Brussels on two\ndifferent occasions to help conceive and launch the tool, and as\npart of the Irish country team he worked on coding the positions\nof the Irish parties) were quintessential to the success of the project.\n1t was clear that he would be the author of several contributions\nusing EU Pro filer data. A first publication (Trechsel and\nMair, 2011) presented the project, the data and used party-generated\ninformation. Our main goal, however, was to produce\nan article (or two) on the effects of the Pro filer on its users. Our\nmain aim was to answer the question: Do users change their party\npreferences after being exposed to the EU Profiler? The online\ntool was designed explicitly to answer this question. The data generated\nbecame an invaluable and unique source of information.\nDuring the launch of the EU Profiler at Scotland House in Brussels,\nPeter took the floor telling the journalists present that the data\ngathered would constitute 'the Holy Grail of political science'. He\nexaggerated, but we had a good laugh, and even though the data\nmay not live up to those expectations, it is exceptionally rich and\ninnovative. From the outset, Mike Alvarez wanted to work with us\non this project, and in the summer of 2010 he spent a week at the\nEUI, where the three of us began working on the very large and\ncomplex dataset. We had a first draft of the article when Peter\npassed away. Since that time, Ines Levin has helped Mike and I\nwith analysis of the complex data - she had already helped us with\nestimation of the preliminary models when Peter was still alive and\nshe is now a co-author. With the agreement of Peter 's wife,\nDr. Karin Tilmans, we are honoured to have Peter as co-author\nof our jointly initiated research output.", "abstract": "Election campaigns in modern democracies are increasingly affected by the rise of Internet-based information and communication technologies. Here, one of the most significant developments concerns the rapidly spreading 'voting advice applications' (VAAs). VAAs help online users to find their parties by matching a series of party positions with the positions taken up by the users themselves. This article analyses whether such tailor-made campaign information affects the party preferences of voters. It hypothesizes that the impact of the VAA-produced information is dependent on the 'representative deficit', a concept which captures the part of political preferences of a user that are not reflected by any party in the political system. The empirical analysis is conducted using a dataset stemming from users of the 'EU Profiler', a VAA produced for the 2009 European Parliamentary elections campaign. We find that less than one out of five users matches best with her initially preferred party. While a large majority of those users who are advised to vote for a better-fitting party are hardly affected by the VAA output, 8 percent of these do change their first preference to the party proposed by the VAA. Switching party preferences can be explained by the size of the representative deficit: the higher the deficit, the lower the probability that the initial party preference will be changed. This finding shows that users of VAAs are responsive to the match calculated by the online tool. They do not blindly follow the personalized suggestions but do so only when they are shown convincing levels of overlap between their views and the best-ranked party's positions.", "date": "2014-03", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Party Politics", "volume": "20", "number": "2", "publisher": "SAGE Publications", "pagerange": "227-236", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20140701-130846545", "issn": "1354-0688", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20140701-130846545", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1177/1354068813519960", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2014", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Levin, Ines; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/htapt-2m983", "eprint_id": 46032, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 23:44:11", "lastmod": "2023-10-26 18:37:46", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Boehmke-F-J", "name": { "family": "Boehmke", "given": "Frederick J." } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "The Influence of Initiative Signature-Gathering Campaigns on Political Participation", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 2013 by the Southwestern Social Science Association.\nArticle first published online: 11 Jul. 2013.\nThe authors thank Alex Chang for his assistance with data collection.\nThey also thank John Mott-Smith and the California Secretary of State's Office for\nproviding them access to the data they used in this article. Authors' appendix and replication\ndata for all analyses reported in this article are posted on Boehmke's website at\nhttp://www.fredboehmke.net.", "abstract": "Objective:\n\nThis article studies the effect of initiative signature-gathering campaigns on political participation within a state.\n\nMethods:\n\nUsing data on signatures gathered for eight initiatives and four different elections, we conduct grouped logit regression to test whether counties that are subject to more intense signature-gathering campaigns, measured by the number of signatures gathered per capita, experience greater levels of turnout and ballot roll-off in the subsequent election.\n\nResults:\n\nOur analysis provides evidence that the intensity of signature-gathering campaigns has a moderate effect on both of these measures of political participation.\n\nConclusion:\n\nInitiative campaigns influence turnout not just at the state level, but variation in campaigns leads to differences within states as well.", "date": "2014-03", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Social Science Quarterly", "volume": "95", "number": "1", "publisher": "Wiley", "pagerange": "165-183", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20140602-135555662", "issn": "0038-4941", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20140602-135555662", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1111/ssqu.12053", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2014", "author_list": "Boehmke, Frederick J. and Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/320wz-q6q96", "eprint_id": 44205, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 10:15:00", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 16:58:28", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Beckett-D", "name": { "family": "Beckett", "given": "Dustin" } }, { "id": "Stewart-C-III", "name": { "family": "Stewart", "given": "Charles, III" } } ] }, "title": "Voting Technology, Vote-by-Mail, and Residual Votes in California, 1990-2010", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "voting technologies; vote-by-mail; residual votes", "note": "\u00a9 2011 University of Utah. \n\nPublished online before print December 13, 2012. \n\nThe author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This research was conducted with financial support from the James Irvine Foundation and the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation.\n\nSubmitted - SSRN-id1837946.pdf
", "abstract": "We examine how the growth in vote-by-mail and changes in voting technologies led to changes in the residual vote rate in California from 1990 to 2010. In California's presidential elections, counties that abandoned punch cards in favor of optical scanning enjoyed a significant improvement in the residual vote rate. We also conduct the first analysis of the effects of the rise of vote-by-mail on residual votes. Regardless of the election, increased use of the mail to cast ballots is robustly associated with a significant rise in the residual vote rate.", "date": "2013-09", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Research Quarterly", "volume": "66", "number": "3", "publisher": "Sage Publications", "pagerange": "658-670", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20140310-081756212", "issn": "1065-9129", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20140310-081756212", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "James Irvine Foundation" }, { "agency": "John S. and James L. Knight Foundation" } ] }, "doi": "10.1177/1065912912467085", "primary_object": { "basename": "SSRN-id1837946.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/320wz-q6q96/files/SSRN-id1837946.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2013", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Beckett, Dustin; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1mt31-hjh79", "eprint_id": 34397, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 12:27:22", "lastmod": "2023-10-19 14:54:50", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Sinclair-B", "name": { "family": "Sinclair", "given": "Betsy" } } ] }, "title": "Electoral Institutions and Legislative Behavior: The Effects of Primary Processes", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "primary election, social networks, California state assembly", "note": "\u00a9 2012 University of Utah. Published online before print January 6, 2012.\nWe thank Delia Bailey for her work on a related project. We\nalso thank Zabrae Valentine and Tony Quinn for comments on\nthis project. We thank Jon Rogowski for research assistance.\nThe author(s) received no financial support for the research,\nauthorship, and/or publication of this article.\n\nPublished - Political_Research_Quarterly-2012-Alvarez-544-57.pdf
", "abstract": "Electoral institutions can affect the voting behavior of legislators who are elected through those institutions. In this article, the authors apply social network theory to study patterns of legislative choices under different primary election systems, and this approach leads the authors to study how electoral institutions affect legislative behavior differently than most previous research\u2014that is, they focus on how electoral institutions affect the interactions between legislators. The authors use data on legislative voting behavior from the California State Assembly and exploit the changes that have been implemented in California's primary elections process over the past two decades. Specifically, they hypothesize that legislators who were elected during the years in which a nonpartisan blanket primary was used in California (1998 and 2000) will be more centrally networked and more likely to compromise with other legislators. They find evidence to support their hypothesis: legislators elected under the nonpartisan blanket primary are more likely to agree with other legislators. Electoral institutions, especially primary elections, have important effects on legislative behavior. The authors' results have implications for highly polarized state legislatures.", "date": "2012-09", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Research Quarterly", "volume": "65", "number": "3", "publisher": "Sage Publications", "pagerange": "544-557", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20120926-092153552", "issn": "1065-9129", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20120926-092153552", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1177/1065912911411098", "primary_object": { "basename": "Political_Research_Quarterly-2012-Alvarez-544-57.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1mt31-hjh79/files/Political_Research_Quarterly-2012-Alvarez-544-57.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2012", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Sinclair, Betsy" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/jpjvk-3df02", "eprint_id": 102135, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 07:40:35", "lastmod": "2023-12-01 00:12:34", "type": "conference_item", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Foley-P", "name": { "family": "Foley", "given": "Peter" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Adolphs-R", "name": { "family": "Adolphs", "given": "Ralph" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8053-9692" } ] }, "title": "Individual Heterogeneity in Emotional Priming", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "abstract": "There is substantial evidence that voters' preferences can be shifted by emotional priming, but the mechanisms through which the priming effects operate are not well understood. We measure emotional reactions to priming stimuli in terms of skin conductance, respiration, and electrocardiography and we show that the strength of an individual's reaction helps predict the extent to which their political beliefs and policy preferences will be shifted by the stimuli. This provides strong evidence that emotional priming effects cannot be fully explained as biased cognition, and that emotional processing systems play a clear role.", "date": "2011-09-05", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "American Political Science Association", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20200327-072420626", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200327-072420626", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "resource_type": "conference_item", "pub_year": "2011", "author_list": "Foley, Peter; Alvarez, R. Michael; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/28sww-ywy70", "eprint_id": 29295, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 07:54:37", "lastmod": "2023-10-24 22:04:42", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Sinclair-B", "name": { "family": "Sinclair", "given": "Betsy" } }, { "id": "Hall-T-E", "name": { "family": "Hall", "given": "Thad E." } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Flooding the Vote: Hurricane Katrina and Voter Participation in New Orleans", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "Hurricane Katrina, mayoral election, New Orleans, turnout, political\nparticipation, voting", "note": "\u00a9 2011 The Author(s). The authors wish to thank the Louisiana Secretary of State's office for providing access to these data, the DIGIT lab at the University of Utah for their work integrating\nthese data with Census and other data, and Delia Bailey who provided us with R programming assistance. The authors thank conference participants for their comments on an earlier work. They also thank Alexander Trechsel, Mark Franklin, Guido\nSchwerdt, and other participants in the \"Innovations in Research on Political Behaviour\" Workshop at the European University Institute for their comments about this research project. The authors received no financial support for the research and/or authorship of this article.", "abstract": "To what extent did the extensive flooding caused by Hurricane Katrina affect voter participation in the 2006 mayoral election? This article uses voting record data from 20 election cycles, GIS-coded flood-depth data, and census data to examine the voting behavior of registered voters in New Orleans before and after Hurricane Katrina. We use a variety of statistical techniques, primarily propensity score matching methods, to examine how flooding affected mayoral turnout. We find that flooding decreased participation, but registered voters who experienced more than 6 ft of flooding were more likely to participate in the election than those who experienced less flooding. This finding confirms that increasing the cost of voting decreases turnout and suggests several mechanisms motivating an expressive component of voting behavior. Our results indicate there is a complex relationship between participation and the costs and benefits of turnout. Our findings about the characteristics of the voters who participated in the mayoral election provide insights into the scope of change for the political landscape of New Orleans.", "date": "2011-09", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Politics Research", "volume": "39", "number": "5", "publisher": "SAGE Publications", "pagerange": "921-957", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20120215-090621025", "issn": "1532-673X", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20120215-090621025", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1177/1532673X10386709", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2011", "author_list": "Sinclair, Betsy; Hall, Thad E.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/w5g41-e0z87", "eprint_id": 44317, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 05:09:13", "lastmod": "2023-10-26 00:23:15", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Bailey-D", "name": { "family": "Bailey", "given": "Delia" } }, { "id": "Katz-J-N", "name": { "family": "Katz", "given": "Jonathan N." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-5287-3503" } ] }, "title": "An Empirical Bayes Approach to Estimating Ordinal Treatment Effect", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 2010 The Author. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology.\n\nAdvance Access publication December 30, 2010.", "abstract": "Ordinal variables\u2014categorical variables with a defined order to the categories, but without equal spacing\nbetween them\u2014are frequently used in social science applications. Although a good deal of research exists on\nthe proper modeling of ordinal response variables, there is not a clear directive as to how to model ordinal\ntreatment variables. The usual approaches found in the literature for using ordinal treatment variables are\neither to use fully unconstrained, though additive, ordinal group indicators or to use a numeric predictor\nconstrained to be continuous. Generalized additive models are a useful exception to these assumptions. In\ncontrast to the generalized additive modeling approach, we propose the use of a Bayesian shrinkage\nestimator to model ordinal treatment variables. The estimator we discuss in this paper allows the model to\ncontain both individual group\u2013level indicators and a continuous predictor. In contrast to traditionally used\nshrinkage models that pull the data toward a common mean, we use a linear model as the basis. Thus, each\nindividual effect can be arbitrary, but the model ''shrinks'' the estimates toward a linear ordinal framework\naccording to the data. We demonstrate the estimator on two political science examples: the impact of voter\nidentification requirements on turnout and the impact of the frequency of religious service attendance on the\nliberality of abortion attitudes.", "date": "2011-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Analysis", "volume": "19", "number": "1", "publisher": "Oxford University Press", "pagerange": "20-31", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20140314-120454857", "issn": "1047-1987", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20140314-120454857", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1093/pan/mpq033", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2011", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Bailey, Delia; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/j9bzz-e2y82", "eprint_id": 83771, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 05:02:42", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 15:06:26", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Bailey-D", "name": { "family": "Bailey", "given": "Delia" } }, { "id": "Katz-J-N", "name": { "family": "Katz", "given": "Jonathan N." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-5287-3503" } ] }, "title": "An empirical Bayes approach to estimating ordinal treatment effects", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "Voter registration, Voter turnout, Modeling, Estimators, Political science, Statistical estimation, Point estimators, Bayes estimators, Multilevel models, Voting", "note": "\u00a9 The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology. \n\nThe views expressed here are those of the authors, not of any organization they are currently or formally associated with. \n\nThis article was accepted by the previous editorial team in consultation with the officers of the Society for Political Methodology. Unforeseen delays resulted in it appearing in an issue edited by two of the authors. These two authors played no editorial role for this article. \n\nFormerly SSWP 1293.", "abstract": "Ordinal variables\u2014categorical variables with a defined order to the categories, but without equal spacing between them\u2014are frequently used in social science applications. Although a good deal of research exists on the proper modeling of ordinal response variables, there is not a clear directive as to how to model ordinal treatment variables. The usual approaches found in the literature for using ordinal treatment variables are either to use fully unconstrained, though additive, ordinal group indicators or to use a numeric predictor constrained to be continuous. Generalized additive models are a useful exception to these assumptions. In contrast to the generalized additive modeling approach, we propose the use of a Bayesian shrinkage estimator to model ordinal treatment variables. The estimator we discuss in this paper allows the model to contain both individual group\u2014level indicators and a continuous predictor. In contrast to traditionally used shrinkage models that pull the data toward a common mean, we use a linear model as the basis. Thus, each individual effect can be arbitrary, but the model \"shrinks\" the estimates toward a linear ordinal framework according to the data. We demonstrate the estimator on two political science examples: the impact of voter identification requirements on turnout and the impact of the frequency of religious service attendance on the liberality of abortion attitudes.", "date": "2011", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Analysis", "volume": "19", "number": "1", "publisher": "Oxford University Press", "pagerange": "20-31", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20171208-161127899", "issn": "1047-1987", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20171208-161127899", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1093/pan/mpq033", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2011", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Bailey, Delia; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/d85ga-gn065", "eprint_id": 17478, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-21 23:17:17", "lastmod": "2023-10-19 23:55:42", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Mattes-K", "name": { "family": "Mattes", "given": "Kyle" } }, { "id": "Spezio-M", "name": { "family": "Spezio", "given": "Michael" } }, { "id": "Kim-Hackjin", "name": { "family": "Kim", "given": "Hackjin" } }, { "id": "Todorov-A", "name": { "family": "Todorov", "given": "Alexander" } }, { "id": "Adolphs-R", "name": { "family": "Adolphs", "given": "Ralph" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8053-9692" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Predicting Election Outcomes from Positive and Negative Trait Assessments of Candidate Images", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "Elections; Fear; Competence; Campaigning; Candidate images; Political behavior", "note": "\u00a9 2009 International Society of Political Psychology.\n\nThis research was supported in part by a CBIC Discovery Grant, with funding derived in part from The Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation.", "abstract": "Conventional wisdom, and a growing body of behavioral research, suggests that the nonverbal image of a candidate influences voter decision making. We presented subjects with images of political candidates and asked them to make four trait judgments based solely on viewing the photographs. Subjects were asked which of the two faces exhibited more competence, attractiveness, deceitfulness, and threat, which are arguably four of the most salient attributes that can be conveyed by faces. When we compared our subjects' choices to the actual election outcomes, we found that the candidates chosen as more likely to physically threaten the subjects actually lost 65% of the real elections. As expected, our findings support the conclusions of Todorov, Mandisodza, Goren, and Hall (2005) by showing a positive correlation between the competence judgments and the real election outcomes. Surprisingly, attractiveness was correlated with losing elections, with the effect being driven by faces of candidates who looked politically incompetent yet personally attractive. Our findings have implications for future research on negative political communication, as they suggest that both threatening first impressions and fleeting impressions of attractiveness can harm a candidate's electoral chances.", "date": "2010-02", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Psychology", "volume": "31", "number": "1", "publisher": "Wiley", "pagerange": "41-58", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20100216-094805100", "issn": "0162-895X", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20100216-094805100", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Caltech Brain Imaging Center" }, { "agency": "Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation" } ] }, "doi": "10.1111/j.1467-9221.2009.00745.x", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2010", "author_list": "Mattes, Kyle; Spezio, Michael; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/h9mq1-3jh76", "eprint_id": 99660, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 01:22:48", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 18:38:17", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Abrajanoa-M-A", "name": { "family": "Abrajanoa", "given": "Marisa A." } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Assessing the Causes and Effects of Political Trust Among U.S. Latinos", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "Latino voters, political trust, public opinion, racial discrimination, trust in government, redistribution", "note": "\u00a9 2010 The Author(s). \n\nFirst Published December 16, 2009. \n\nAbrajano would like to thank Zoltan Hajnal, Thad Kousser, Gerry Mackie, Megumi Naoi, Michael Jones-Correa, and Jennifer Merolla for their comments and suggestions.", "abstract": "This article examines why Latinos are more trusting of the federal government than Anglos and Blacks. We address this puzzle by turning to previous research on racial politics and political trust. Consistent with previous research, discrimination and generational status are important predictors of Latinos' political trust, with first-generation Latinos more trusting than later-generation Latinos. Encounters with racial discrimination also make Latinos and Blacks less trusting of government. In contrast, Anglos' political trust can be explained by their economic evaluations as well as their partisanship. Although these findings are insightful, they do not directly address why intergroup differences arise when it comes to their trust in government. We argue that combined with generational distinctions among Latinos in their trust of government, the heavy flow of Latino immigration in the past 30 years has changed the Latino population in such a way that the views of the foreign-born are disproportionately represented in survey questions related to trust in government. This is producing a Latino population that is more inclined to trust government than Anglos or Blacks. We then examine the impact of political trust on individuals' opinions toward redistributive policies. Political trust has a strong and positive effect on Latinos' attitudes toward such policies.", "date": "2010-01-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Politics Research", "volume": "38", "number": "1", "publisher": "SAGE Publications", "pagerange": "110-141", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20191105-075610756", "issn": "1532-673X", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20191105-075610756", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "collection": "CaltechAUTHORS", "doi": "10.1177/1532673X08330273", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2010", "author_list": "Abrajanoa, Marisa A. and Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/7rpp9-qce45", "eprint_id": 108493, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 01:21:09", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 17:05:43", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Hopkins-Asa-S", "name": { "family": "Hopkins", "given": "Asa" } }, { "id": "Sinclair-Betsy", "name": { "family": "Sinclair", "given": "Betsy" } } ] }, "title": "Mobilizing Pasadena Democrats: Measuring The Effects of Partisan Campaign Contacts", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2010 Southern Political Science Association.\n\nManuscript submitted 23 January 2009;\nManuscript accepted for publication 31 March 2009.\n\nThe authors would like to thank the Pasadena Area\nUnited Democratic Headquarters for providing this\ndata and the opportunity to conduct a randomized\nexperiment. We also thank Alexander Trechsel, Mark\nFranklin, Thad Hall, Guido Schwerdt, and other\nparticipants in the \"Innovations in Research on Political\nBehaviour\" workshop at the European University\nInstitute for their comments about this research\nproject.\n\nPublished - mobilizing_pasadena_democrats_measuring_the_effects_of_partisan_campaign_contacts.pdf
Submitted - vtp_wp66.pdf
", "abstract": "This paper examines the effect of an entire campaign using a randomized field experiment where the treatment consists of campaign decisions made by a campaign manager. In contrast to the majority of the field experiments found in the contemporary get-out-the-vote literature, this paper studies the actual behavior of a campaign within a particular election as opposed to studying particular mobilization tactics. Thus, the campaign itself chooses the method used to contact each individual within the randomly assigned treatment group. Contacts are made via face-to-face canvassing, phone calls, e-mails, and door hangers and consist of experienced volunteers making partisan appeals. We observe a large treatment effect of campaign contact despite a small number of face-to-face contacts, suggesting that the targeting strategy of the campaign manager is particularly effective.", "date": "2010-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Journal of Politics", "volume": "72", "number": "1", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "31-44", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20210318-152432621", "issn": "0022-3816", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20210318-152432621", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "collection": "CaltechAUTHORS", "other_numbering_system": { "items": [ { "id": "66", "name": "Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project" } ] }, "doi": "10.1017/s0022381609990454", "primary_object": { "basename": "mobilizing_pasadena_democrats_measuring_the_effects_of_partisan_campaign_contacts.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/7rpp9-qce45/files/mobilizing_pasadena_democrats_measuring_the_effects_of_partisan_campaign_contacts.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "vtp_wp66.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/7rpp9-qce45/files/vtp_wp66.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2010", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Hopkins, Asa; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/sdjv3-5q961", "eprint_id": 64521, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 01:22:39", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:28:12", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } } ] }, "title": "Rationality and Rationalistic Choice in the California Recall", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 Cambridge University Press 2009. \n\nPublished online: 17 February 2009. \n\nThe authors wish to thank Ralph Adolphs, Stephen Ansolabehere, Peter Boessarts, Bruce Cain, Jack Citrin, John Ellwood, Diana Evans, Alan Gerber, Donald Green, David Grether, Tim Groseclose, Phil Hoffman, Sam Kernell, Thad Kousser, John Lapinski, John Ledyard, Andrea Mattozzi, David Mayhew, Rebecca Morton, Jonathan Nagler, Peter Ordeshook, Tom Palfrey, Charles Plott, Julian Romero, Nasos Roussias, Robert Sherman, Betsy Sinclair and Matt Spitzer for comments and suggestions, and also the seminar participants at the University of Michigan, University of Southern California, University of California-San Diego, Princeton University and Yale University, as well as the JournaI's anonymous reviewers for helpful comments. They also gratefully acknowledge the California Institute of Technology for its financial support of this research.\n\nSubmitted - AlvarezBJPS2009.pdf
", "abstract": "The California recall election of 2003 provides an excellent setting for investigating voter rationality and certain forms of sophisticated voting. In a pre-election telephone survey, 1,500 registered voters were asked to make pairwise comparisons between the major candidates, and their responses were combined to infer preferences. Individuals' preference orderings over the major candidates rarely exhibited intransitivity. The patterns of tactical voting observed in the replacement part of the recall election were consistent with the declining rate hypothesis. Voters also engaged in 'hedge voting' on the recall question itself. The results suggest that voters' decisions are 'rationalistic': while voters are consistent in forming utility-based preference rankings and choosing on that basis, their voting strategies do not incorporate probability assessments in a realistic, consistent fashion, if at all.", "date": "2009-04", "date_type": "published", "publication": "British Journal of Political Science", "volume": "39", "number": "2", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "267-290", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160216-161833984", "issn": "0007-1234", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160216-161833984", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Caltech" } ] }, "local_group": { "items": [ { "id": "Social-Science-Working-Papers" } ] }, "doi": "10.1017/S0007123408000586", "primary_object": { "basename": "AlvarezBJPS2009.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/sdjv3-5q961/files/AlvarezBJPS2009.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2009", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Kiewiet, D. Roderick" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/kvkpj-55r96", "eprint_id": 18744, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 14:00:29", "lastmod": "2024-01-12 23:40:17", "type": "book_section", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Katz-Gabriel", "name": { "family": "Katz", "given": "Gabriel" }, "orcid": "0000-0001-5970-2769" }, { "id": "Llamosa-Ricardo", "name": { "family": "Llamosa", "given": "Ricardo" } }, { "id": "Martinez-Hugo-E", "name": { "family": "Martinez", "given": "Hugo E." } } ] }, "title": "Assessing Voters' Attitudes towards Electronic Voting in Latin America: Evidence from Colombia's 2007 E-Voting Pilot", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "e-voting pilot; Latin America; multivariate probit; reliability; usability; trust in government; voter confidence", "note": "\u00a9 2009 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.", "abstract": "Electronic voting could increase citizens' electoral participation and trust in countries characterized by fragile democratic institutions and public discredit of the political system such as those in Latin America. This paper examines attitudes towards e-voting among participants in a large scale pilot project conducted in Colombia in 2007, focusing on the perceived reliability and usability of different, automated voting technologies. Using a multivariate probit model, we determine the effect of socio-demographic, geographic and technical factors on users' evaluations of electronic voting vis a vis the traditional paper ballot system. Our results show that users find e-voting not only easier than the current voting system, but also substantially more reliable. While voters' opinions on usability are driven by technical issues, their trust in the new technologies is strongly affected by individual characteristics. We conclude that e-voting entails a promising opportunity to empower voters and increase confidence in elections in Colombia.", "date": "2009", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "Springer", "place_of_pub": "Berlin", "pagerange": "75-91", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20100621-094228619", "isbn": "978-3-642-04134-1", "book_title": "E-voting and identity : second international conference", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20100621-094228619", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "contributors": { "items": [ { "id": "Ryan-P-Y-A", "name": { "family": "Ryan", "given": "Peter Y. A." } }, { "id": "Schoenmakers-B", "name": { "family": "Schoenmakers", "given": "Berry" } } ] }, "doi": "10.1007/978-3-642-04135-8_5", "resource_type": "book_section", "pub_year": "2009", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Katz, Gabriel; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/2mv5r-s6a37", "eprint_id": 13383, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 13:43:03", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 23:51:25", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Spezio-M-L", "name": { "family": "Spezio", "given": "Michael L." } }, { "id": "Rangel-A", "name": { "family": "Rangel", "given": "Antonio" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "Ramon Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "O'Doherty-J-P", "name": { "family": "O'Doherty", "given": "John P." }, "orcid": "0000-0003-0016-3531" }, { "id": "Mattes-Kyle", "name": { "family": "Mattes", "given": "Kyle" } }, { "id": "Todorov-A", "name": { "family": "Todorov", "given": "Alexander" } }, { "id": "Kim-Hackjin", "name": { "family": "Kim", "given": "Hackjin" } }, { "id": "Adolphs-R", "name": { "family": "Adolphs", "given": "Ralph" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8053-9692" } ] }, "title": "A neural basis for the effect of candidate appearance on election outcomes", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "social cognition; faces; trait judgment; voting; political science", "note": "\u00a9 The Author (2008). Published by Oxford University Press. \n\nReceived 6 October 2008; Accepted 17 October 2008. Advance Access publication 28 October 2008. \n\nThe authors wish to thank Jan Glaescher for helpful discussions and for the use of rfxplot. This research was financed in part by a grant from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and with support from the National Science Foundation (grant number SES-0134618 to A.R.) and from the National Institutes of Health (to R.A. and M.L.S.).\n\nSupplemental Material - SPEscan08supp.doc
", "abstract": "Election outcomes correlate with judgments based on a candidates visual appearance, suggesting that the attributions viewers make based on appearance, so-called thin-slice judgments, influence voting. Yet, it is not known whether the effect of appearance on voting is more strongly influenced by positive or negative attributions, nor which neural mechanisms subserve this effect. We conducted two independent brain imaging studies to address this question. In Study 1, images of losing candidates elicited greater activation in the insula and ventral anterior cingulate than images of winning candidates. Winning candidates elicited no differential activation at all. This suggests that negative attributions from appearance exert greater influence on voting than do positive. We further tested this hypothesis in Study 2 by asking a separate group of participants to judge which unfamiliar candidate in a pair looked more attractive, competent, deceitful and threatening. When negative attribution processing was enhanced (specifically, under judgment of threat), images of losing candidates again elicited greater activation in the insula and ventral anterior cingulate. Together, these findings support the view that negative attributions play a critical role in mediating the effects of appearance on voter decisions, an effect that may be of special importance when other information is absent.", "date": "2008-12", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Social Congnitive and Affective Neuroscience", "volume": "3", "number": "4", "publisher": "Oxford University Press", "pagerange": "344-352", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:SPEscan08", "issn": "1749-5016", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:SPEscan08", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SES-0134618" }, { "agency": "NIH" } ] }, "doi": "10.1093/scan/nsn040", "pmcid": "PMC2607056", "primary_object": { "basename": "SPEscan08supp.doc", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/2mv5r-s6a37/files/SPEscan08supp.doc" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2008", "author_list": "Spezio, Michael L.; Rangel, Antonio; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/k20qk-7mb89", "eprint_id": 13301, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 13:42:33", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 23:23:46", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Hall-T-E", "name": { "family": "Hall", "given": "Thad E." } }, { "id": "Sinclair-D-E", "name": { "family": "Sinclair", "given": "D.E. \"Betsy\"" } } ] }, "title": "Whose absentee votes are returned and counted: The variety and use of absentee ballots in California", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Absentee voting; Vote counting; Election reform; Military voting; Minority voting", "note": "Published version \u00a9 2008 Elsevier Ltd. \n\nWe thank Los Angeles County Registrar Recorder Conny McCormack and her staff for access to data from the 2002 election. We also thank Mary Sikora for her assistance, and Steve Ansolabehere for his assistance on a related project. Participants at a seminar presented by Hall at Brigham Young University provided helpful comments to an earlier version of this paper. Alvarez's research was supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York, by grants to the Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project, and by the IBM Corporation.\n\nAccepted Version - ALVes08preprint.pdf
", "abstract": "Absentee voting is becoming more prevalent throughout the United States. Although there has been some research focused on who votes by absentee ballot, little research has considered another important question about absentee voting: which absentee ballots are counted and which are not? Research in the wake of the 2000 presidential election has studied the problem of uncounted ballots for precinct voters but not for absentee voters. Using data from Los Angeles County \u2013 nation's largest and most diverse voting jurisdiction \u2013 for the November 2002 general election, we test a series of hypotheses that certain types of voters have a higher likelihood that their ballots will be counted. We find that uniform service personnel, overseas civilians, voters who request non-English ballots and permanent absentee voters have a much lower likelihood of returning their ballot, and once returned, a lower likelihood that their ballots will be counted compared with the general absentee voting population. We also find that there is little partisan effect as to which voters are more likely to return their ballots or have their ballots counted. We conclude our paper with a discussion of the implications of our research for the current debates about absentee voting.", "date": "2008-12", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Electoral Studies", "volume": "27", "number": "4", "publisher": "Elsevier", "pagerange": "673-683", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:ALVes08", "issn": "0261-3794", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:ALVes08", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Carnegie Corporation of New York" }, { "agency": "Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project" }, { "agency": "IBM Corporation" } ] }, "doi": "10.1016/j.electstud.2008.05.007", "primary_object": { "basename": "ALVes08preprint.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/k20qk-7mb89/files/ALVes08preprint.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2008", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Hall, Thad E.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ayf82-rtc16", "eprint_id": 13161, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 23:32:59", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 22:44:48", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Hall-T-E", "name": { "family": "Hall", "given": "Thad E." } } ] }, "title": "Building secure and transparent elections through standard operating procedures", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "Democracy", "note": "\u00a9 2008 ASPA. \n\nReceived: 06 June 2008; Accepted: 01 August 2008; Published Online: 5 August 2008.", "abstract": "Election reform has evolved since the 2000 presidential election. One issue that has remained at the forefront of public debate is how to build confidence in the election process. The foundation for confidence is based on procedures for electoral security and transparency. In this article, the authors use legal theories of evidence and public administration theories related to standard operating procedures to consider how election fraud\u2014and claims of fraud\u2014can be prevented by having effective and rigorous chain of custody procedures. Using case studies, they show how such chains of custody can be implemented and examine which states have processes and procedures that promote the transparency that is critical for public examination of the electoral process. They conclude with a consideration of best practices in this area.", "date": "2008-09", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Public Administration Review", "volume": "68", "number": "5", "publisher": "Blackwell Publishing", "pagerange": "828-838", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:ALVpar08", "issn": "0033-3352", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:ALVpar08", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1111/j.1540-6210.2008.00924.x", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2008", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Hall, Thad E." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ptmwj-pgf95", "eprint_id": 13405, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 11:25:54", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 23:52:24", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Abrajanoa-M-A", "name": { "family": "Abrajanoa", "given": "Marisa A." } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "The Hispanic vote in the 2004 Presidential election: Insecurity and moral concerns", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "issue salience; politics; latino; choice; city; Americans; behavior; impact; black; race", "note": "Copyright \u00a9 Southern Political Science Association 2008. Manuscript submitted 26 June 2006; accepted for publication 27 April 2007. We thank audiences at the 2006 Western Political\nScience Association annual meeting and the 2007\nMidwest Political Science Association annual meeting\nfor their comments, as well as Rosalee A. Clawson,\nLina Newton, and Nicholas J. G. Winter. Alvarez and\nNagler also thank Jim Gerstein, Stan Greenberg, and\nAna Iparraguirre for stimulating discussions about\nHispanic voting and the 2004 election.\n\nPublished - ABRjp08.pdf
", "abstract": "This paper examines Hispanic voting behavior in the 2004 Presidential election. Our research makes a significant\ncontribution to the literature on Hispanic politics, as this is the first study to apply theories of issue and economic\nvoting to a nationwide sample of Hispanic voters. We demonstrate that, similar to Anglos, issues and ideology were\nhighly influential in the vote choice of Hispanics in the 2004 election. However, using the best available data on\nHispanic voting behavior for this election, a statewide aggregation of the National Election Pool (NEP), we\ndemonstrate that in this election Hispanic voters placed more emphasis on moral values issues and national\nsecurity than on traditional domestic issues such as the economy and education. This accounted for Republican\ngains beyond the overall increase in Bush's vote share from 2000 to 2004. We also show that moral values and\nnational security had roughly equal importance in Bush's victory.", "date": "2008-04", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Journal of Politics", "volume": "70", "number": "2", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "368-382", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:ABRjp08", "issn": "0022-3816", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:ABRjp08", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1017/S0022381608080365", "primary_object": { "basename": "ABRjp08.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/ptmwj-pgf95/files/ABRjp08.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2008", "author_list": "Abrajanoa, Marisa A.; Alvarez, R. Michael; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/x91jd-a2288", "eprint_id": 65254, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 21:52:34", "lastmod": "2024-01-13 16:43:46", "type": "book", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Hall-T-E", "name": { "family": "Hall", "given": "Thad E." } }, { "id": "Hyde-S-D", "name": { "family": "Hyde", "given": "Susan D." } } ] }, "title": "Election Fraud: Detecting and Deterring Electoral Manipulation", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2008 Brookings Institution Press.", "abstract": "[no abstract]", "date": "2008", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "Brookings Institution Press", "place_of_pub": "Washington, DC", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160310-085423907", "isbn": "978-0-8157-0138-5", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160310-085423907", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "resource_type": "book", "pub_year": "2008", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Hall, Thad E.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/k3prj-dd268", "eprint_id": 64666, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 21:52:26", "lastmod": "2024-01-13 16:41:13", "type": "book_section", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Hall-T-E", "name": { "family": "Hall", "given": "Thad E." } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Katz-J-N", "name": { "family": "Katz", "given": "Jonathan N." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-5287-3503" } ] }, "title": "Fraud or Failure? What Incident Reports Reveal about Election Anomalies and Irregularities", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "abstract": "When things go wrong in elections involving direct-recording electronic (DRE) voting technology, these episodes are viewed by many as proof of the vulnerability, or at least the unreliability, of these systems. Claims by election officials that such problems are \"par for the course\" in elections or symptomatic of \"growing pains\" associated with implementing a new technology ring false to many Americans who expect elections to be run without error every time. To date, however, each side in the debate has been able to rely on only limited data and scant research. DRE technology has only recently been introduced on a large scale in the United States, so there is little systematic information regarding the difficulties encountered in its implementation. \n\nIn this chapter, we examine a novel and potentially very useful source of data concerning the frequency and severity of different types of problems encountered by voters and precinct workers in a DRE environment. The data consist of incident reports collected by poll workers during the May 2, 2006, primary election in Cuyahoga County, Ohio. This election marked the first use of DRE technology in this jurisdiction. Voters cast their ballots on Diebold Accuvote-TSx voting machines -- touch-screen machines equipped with printers to produce the voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) mandated by Ohio election law. Since most voters were unfamiliar with the technology, the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections took the prudent and useful measure of providing poll workers at each precinct with incident report forms to record and to describe difficulties they encountered in conducting the balloting.", "date": "2008", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "Brookings Institution", "place_of_pub": "Washington DC", "pagerange": "112-129", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-160838091", "isbn": "9780815701385", "book_title": "Election Fraud: Detecting and Deterring Electoral Manipulation", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-160838091", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "contributors": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" } }, { "id": "Hall-T-E", "name": { "family": "Hall", "given": "Thad E." } }, { "id": "Hyde-S-D", "name": { "family": "Hyde", "given": "Susan D." } } ] }, "resource_type": "book_section", "pub_year": "2008", "author_list": "Kiewiet, D. Roderick; Hall, Thad E.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/khmhs-k1x49", "eprint_id": 13163, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 10:47:07", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 22:44:57", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Hall-T-E", "name": { "family": "Hall", "given": "Thad E." } }, { "id": "Llewellyn-M", "name": { "family": "Llewellyn", "given": "Morgan" } } ] }, "title": "Who should run elections in the United States?", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "ELECTORAL GOVERNANCE; INFORMATION; BOARDS; COSTS", "note": "\u00a9 2008 Policy Studies Organization. \n\nWe thank Geri Mannion and the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Center for Public Policy and Administration at the University of Utah, and the Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project for their support of our research. Melissa Slemin provided invaluable assistance in our research efforts.", "abstract": "Much has been said since the 2000 presidential election regarding the administration of elections in the United States, particularly about how election administrators are selected and to whom they are responsive. Unfortunately, there has been little research on the different administrative structures that are possible and the preferences of Americans regarding these different administrative options. In this article we present the results from a national survey of American adults in which we asked them their preference for whether elections should be run by partisan or nonpartisan officials, whether the officials should be elected or appointed, and whether the administration of elections should be by a single unitary executive or by an election board. In addition to eliciting the basic preferences of Americans about these administrative choices, we also undertake a deeper analysis of these data to determine the underlying patterns in support for the different administrative options.", "date": "2008", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Policy Studies Journal", "volume": "36", "number": "3", "publisher": "Blackwell", "pagerange": "325-346", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:ALVpsj08", "issn": "0190-292X", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:ALVpsj08", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Geri Mannion" }, { "agency": "Carnegie Corporation of New York" }, { "agency": "Center for Public Policy and Administration at the University of Utah" }, { "agency": "Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project" } ] }, "doi": "10.1111/j.1541-0072.2008.00271.x", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2008", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Hall, Thad E.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/6pgc1-r8089", "eprint_id": 21832, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 05:13:55", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 15:11:32", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Boehmke-F-J", "name": { "family": "Boehmke", "given": "Frederick J." } }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "Strategic voting in British elections", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "strategic voting; tactical voting; British elections", "note": "\u00a9 2005 Elsevier.\nAvailable online 26 April 2005. \nWe thank Geoff Evans, David Myatt, and Harold Clarke for their comments about a previous version\nof this research that was presented at the 1999 Midwest Political Science Association Meeting. Comments\nreceived from Eric Lawrence and Doug Rivers at the 2000 Western Political Science Association Meeting\nwere also extremely helpful. Alvarez thanks the National Science Foundation (SBR-9709327) and the IBM\nCorporation for their support of his research. Nagler thanks the National Science Foundation for support\nof his research under SBR-9413939, SBR-9709214, and SES-0078882. We thank Jonathan Katz for\nproviding us with some of the data used in this analysis, and Betsy Sinclair for helpful discussions.", "abstract": "In this paper we examine the extent to which voters engage in strategic behavior. Our contribution is accounting for the context in which voters have the opportunity to behave in a strategic fashion. We also demonstrate that previous measures of strategic voting significantly underestimated the willingness of voters to engage in strategic behavior when presented with the opportunity to do so. We use as cases for our study of strategic voting behavior two recent elections in Britain, the 1987 and 1997 general elections. Our analysis produces estimates of strategic voting in these elections that are substantially greater than reported in previous research.", "date": "2006-03", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Electoral Studies", "volume": "25", "number": "1", "publisher": "Elsevier", "pagerange": "1-19", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20110120-105045038", "issn": "0261-3794", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20110120-105045038", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9413939" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709214" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SES-0078882" } ] }, "doi": "10.1016/j.electstud.2005.02.008", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2006", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Boehmke, Frederick J.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1s4j9-qfk88", "eprint_id": 64665, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 15:08:21", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 21:35:21", "type": "book_section", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Sinclair-B", "name": { "family": "Sinclair", "given": "Betsy" } } ] }, "title": "Rational Voters and the Recall Election", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2006 Pearson Prentice Hall.\n\nSubmitted - Rational_Voters_and_the_Recall_Election.pdf
", "abstract": "The 2003 California recall election presented voters with a pair of choices. The first was whether or not to recall Gray Davis as Governor of the state. They were then faced with a list of 135 potential replacement candidates, one of whom would be chosen in the event Davis lost on the initial recall question. The two ballot questions were formally separate questions, but they were interrelated and conditional in nature. If I vote in favor of recalling Davis as Governor, whom should I support to replace him? Alternatively, voters who opposed recalling Davis as Governor had to decide who to vote for as replacement candidate to try to insure that, if Davis were recalled, an acceptable replacement candidate would be elected.", "date": "2005", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "Pearson Prentice-Hall", "place_of_pub": "Upper Saddle River, NJ", "pagerange": "87-97", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-160148689", "isbn": "9780131933361", "book_title": "Clicker politics : essays on the California recall", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-160148689", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "contributors": { "items": [ { "id": "Bowler-S", "name": { "family": "Bowler", "given": "Shawn" } }, { "id": "Cain-B-E", "name": { "family": "Cain", "given": "Bruce E." } } ] }, "primary_object": { "basename": "Rational_Voters_and_the_Recall_Election.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1s4j9-qfk88/files/Rational_Voters_and_the_Recall_Election.pdf" }, "resource_type": "book_section", "pub_year": "2005", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Kiewiet, D. Roderick; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/6xgjs-fnb82", "eprint_id": 82997, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 13:13:26", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 22:50:14", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Garcia-Bedolla-L", "name": { "family": "Garcia Bedolla", "given": "Lisa" } } ] }, "title": "The Revolution Against Affirmative Action in California: Politics, Economics, and Proposition 209", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "abstract": "In 1996, California voters approved Proposition 209, which banned the use of affirmative action in state hiring, contracting, and public university admissions. We know that white voters favored Proposition 209 more than nonwhite voters--the question is, why? Did they feel that the racial preferences given to growing numbers of members of racial and ethnic groups threatened them economically, or were they just motivated by old-fashioned racism? We test these two possible explanations--economic anxiety and racial division--for the appeal of Proposition 209 to California voters using exit poll data. We find little support for the economic anxiety explanation. Instead, racial division seems to be the best way to understand white voting on Proposition 209.", "date": "2004-03-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "State Politics and Policy Quarterly", "volume": "4", "number": "1", "publisher": "American Political Science Association", "pagerange": "1-17", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20171106-143813563", "issn": "1532-4400", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20171106-143813563", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1177/153244000400400101", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2004", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Garcia Bedolla, Lisa" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1nnd2-v2r10", "eprint_id": 14056, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 12:56:46", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 16:04:49", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Goodrich-M", "name": { "family": "Goodrich", "given": "Melanie" } }, { "id": "Hall-T-E", "name": { "family": "Hall", "given": "Thad E." } }, { "id": "Kiewiet-D-R", "name": { "family": "Kiewiet", "given": "D. Roderick" } }, { "id": "Sled-S-M", "name": { "family": "Sled", "given": "Sarah M." } } ] }, "title": "The complexity of the California recall election", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "Copyright \u00a9 2004 by the American Political Science Association.We thank Conny McCormack (Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder)\nand Susan Pinkus (director of the Los Angeles Times Poll) for some of the\ndata used in this paper. We also thank the California Institute of Technology\nand the Carnegie Corporation of New York for their support.\n\nPublished - ALVpsp04.pdf
", "abstract": "The October 7, 2003 California Recall Election strained California's direct democracy. In recent California politics there has not been a statewide election conducted on such short notice; county election officials were informed on July 24 that the election would be held on October 7. Nor has California recently seen a ballot with so many candidates running for a single statewide office (see Mueller 1970). Under easy ballot access requirements, Secretary of State Kevin Shelley certified 135 candidates for the official ballot on August 13^1. \nIn the recall, voters cast votes on (1) whether to recall Governor Davis from office, and (2) his possible successor. These two voting decisions were made independent by the federal district court's decision on July 29. The court's decision invalidated a state law requiring a vote on the recall question in order for a vote on the successor election to be counted (Partnoy et al. 2003).\nThe abbreviated election calendar also led to many improvisations, including a dramatically reduced number of precinct poll sites throughout the state and the unprecedented ability of military personnel,\ntheir dependents, and civilians living overseas to return their absentee ballots by fax. These problems produced litigation and speculation that substantial problems would mar the election and throw the outcome of both the recall and a possible successor's election into doubt. In the end, the litigation failed to stall the recall election, and the large final vote margins on both the recall question and the successor ballot seemingly overwhelmed Election Day problems. \nIn this paper, we concentrate on some of the problems produced by the complexity of the recall election, but we do not attempt an exhaustive presentation of these problems. We focus on polling place problems on election day, the problems associated with translating the complicated recall election ballot into six languages, how the long ballot influenced voter behavior, and voter difficulties with the ballot measured with survey data. We conclude with a short discussion of the possible impact of these problems on the recall election.", "date": "2004-01-04", "date_type": "published", "publication": "PS: Political Science & Politics", "volume": "37", "number": "1", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "23-26", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20090423-135013650", "issn": "1049-0965", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20090423-135013650", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Caltech" }, { "agency": "Carnegie Corporation" } ] }, "doi": "10.1017/S1049096504003567", "primary_object": { "basename": "ALVpsp04.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/1nnd2-v2r10/files/ALVpsp04.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2004", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Goodrich, Melanie; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/vjfrz-m2017", "eprint_id": 1436, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-22 01:17:57", "lastmod": "2023-10-13 22:49:07", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "Party System Compactness: Measurement and Consequences", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 Society for Political Methodology 2004 \n\nPrevious versions of this paper have been presented at the Spring 1998 meeting of the Southern California Political Methodology Program, May 1998, San Diego, CA; the 1998 meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, April 1998, Chicago, IL; and the 1998 meeting of the Western Political Science Association, March 1998, Los Angeles, CA. We thank Jennifer R. Willette for her research on this project, Matt Golder for his comments, and the reviewers of Political Analysis for their very helpful and thought-provoking comments. Alvarez's work was supported by the National Science Foundation through SBR-9709327 and the IBM Corporation's University Matching Grants Program; Nagler's work was supported by the National Science Foundation through SBR-9413939 and SBR-9709214.", "abstract": "An important property of any party system is the set of choices it presents to the electorate. In this paper we analyze the distribution of parties relative to voters in the multidimensional issue space and introduce two measures of the dispersion of the parties in the issue space relative to the voters, which we call measures of the compactness of the parties in the issue space. We show how compactness is easily computed using standard survey items found on national election surveys. Because we study the spacing of the parties relative to the distribution of the voters, we produce metric-free measures of compactness of the party system. The measures can be used to compare party systems across issues, over time within countries, and across countries. Comparing the compactness of party systems across countries allows us to determine the relative amount of issue choice afforded voters in different polities. We examine the compactness of the issue space and test the impact it has on voter choice in four countries: the United States, the Netherlands, Canada, and Great Britain. We demonstrate that the more compact the distribution of the parties in the issue space on any given issue, the less voters weight that issue in their vote decision. Thus we provide evidence supporting theories suggesting that the greater the choice offered by the parties in an election, the more likely it is that issue voting will play a major role in that election.", "date": "2004", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Analysis", "volume": "12", "number": "1", "publisher": "Oxford University Press", "pagerange": "46-62", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:ALVpa04", "issn": "1047-1987", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:ALVpa04", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1093/pan/mph003", "primary_object": { "basename": "ALVpa04.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/vjfrz-m2017/files/ALVpa04.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2004", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Nagler, Jonathan" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/kcmzb-2at77", "eprint_id": 79913, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 10:56:01", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 15:41:07", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Garcia-Bedolla-L", "name": { "family": "Garcia Bedolla", "given": "Lisa" } } ] }, "title": "The Foundations of Latino Voter Partisanship: Evidence from the 2000 Election", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2003 Southern Political Science Association. \n\nManuscript submitted 16 April 2001; Final manuscript received 16 November 2001. \n\nAn earlier version of this paper was presented at the 2001 annual meeting of the Western Political Science Association in Las Vegas. We acknowledge the Knight-Ridder News Organization, in particular its Washington bureau; the San Jose Mercury News; the Fort Worth Star-Telegram; and the Miami Herald for providing us with the 2000 Voter Survey. Specifically we thank Nadine Selden and Mary Anne Ostrom of Knight-Ridder for their assistance. We thank Jonathan Nagler for his assistance and Gary Segura and Louis DeSipio for helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper. Michael Alvarez thanks the IBM Corp. for research support.\n\nPublished - 1468-2508.t01-1-00002.pdf
", "abstract": "Studies of partisan identification in the U.S. have concentrated on Anglo Americans. We argue that by focusing only on the descendents of naturalized, mostly white, immigrants, that previous research may have been biased toward largely sociological accounts for the development of partisan attitudes. Here we study the partisan affiliations of Latino voters and argue that by examining their partisan attitudes we should find that their partisanship is more explicitly political than Anglos. We utilize a telephone survey of Latino likely voters in the 2000 presidential election and find that Latino voter partisanship is shaped by both political and social factors.", "date": "2003-02", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Journal of Politics", "volume": "65", "number": "1", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "31-49", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170808-091232677", "issn": "0022-3816", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170808-091232677", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "IBM Corp." } ] }, "doi": "10.1111/1468-2508.t01-1-00002", "primary_object": { "basename": "1468-2508.t01-1-00002.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/kcmzb-2at77/files/1468-2508.t01-1-00002.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2003", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Garcia Bedolla, Lisa" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/s0t8c-nd813", "eprint_id": 1437, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-21 23:59:25", "lastmod": "2023-10-13 22:49:09", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Sherman-R-P", "name": { "family": "Sherman", "given": "Robert P." } }, { "id": "VanBeselaere-C", "name": { "family": "VanBeselaere", "given": "Clara" } } ] }, "title": "Subject Acquisition for Web-Based Surveys", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2003 by the Society for Political Methodology \n\nWe thank the IBM Corporation's University Matching Grants Program, the USC-Caltech Center for the Study of Law and Politics, and Caltech for their support of this research. Garrett Glasgow and audience members at the 2001 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association provided excellent commentary on this research, as did participants at the Fall 2001 meetings of the Southern California Political Methodology Program at the University of California, Riverside. Dorothy Kaslow, Chris Malek, and Catherine Wilson all provided assistance with various components of this research. We also thank Chey Hahn and ValueClick, Inc.'s UltraLeads e-mail model; finally, we thank Michael Halberstam, Alice Strauss, and Michel Meeks of Interviewing Services of America, Inc., for their assistance with our telephone interviewing research.", "abstract": "This article provides a basic report about subject recruitment processes for Web-based surveys. Using data from our ongoing Internet Survey of American Opinion project, two different recruitment techniques (banner advertisement and subscription campaigns) are compared. This comparison, together with a typology of Web-based surveys, provides insight into the validity and generalizability of Internet survey data. The results from this analysis show that, although Internet survey respondents differ demographically from the American population, the relationships among variables are similar across recruitment methods and match those implied by substantive theory. Thus, our research documents the basic methodology of subject acquisition for Web-based surveys, which, as we argue in our conclusion, may soon become the survey interview mode of choice for social scientists.", "date": "2003", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Analysis", "volume": "11", "number": "1", "publisher": "Oxford University Press", "pagerange": "23-43", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:ALVpa03", "issn": "1047-1987", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:ALVpa03", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1093/pan/11.1.23", "primary_object": { "basename": "ALVpa03.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/s0t8c-nd813/files/ALVpa03.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2003", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Sherman, Robert P.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/9yvn5-z9808", "eprint_id": 83554, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 08:49:00", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 23:13:34", "type": "book_section", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "Should I stay or should I go? Sincere and strategic crossover voting in California assembly races", "ispublished": "unpub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2000 University of California. Published in association with the U.C. Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies. \n\nFormerly SSWP 1071.", "abstract": "There at least two important questions about voter behavior in California's blanket primary. The first is: How many voters took the opportunity to cast a ballot for a candidate of a party different than that of the voter's registration or identification? The second question is: Why did these crossover voters decide to defect from their own party's nomination campaign and support a candidate from another party? In this chapter, we focus on these two questions at the Assembly district level.", "date": "2002", "date_type": "published", "publisher": "University of California Press", "place_of_pub": "Berkeley, CA", "pagerange": "107-123", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20171128-154500911", "isbn": "0520228332", "book_title": "Voting at the Political Fault Line: California's Experiment with the Blanket Primary", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20171128-154500911", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "contributors": { "items": [ { "id": "Cain-B-E", "name": { "family": "Cain", "given": "Bruce E." } }, { "id": "Gerber-E-R", "name": { "family": "Gerber", "given": "Elisabeth R." } } ] }, "resource_type": "book_section", "pub_year": "2002", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Nagler, Jonathan" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/8rt9b-j3v42", "eprint_id": 13160, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-21 21:19:26", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 22:44:44", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Hall-T-E", "name": { "family": "Hall", "given": "Thad E." } }, { "id": "Llewellyn-M-H", "name": { "family": "Llewellyn", "given": "Morgan H." } } ] }, "title": "Are Americans confident their ballots are counted?", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "POLITICAL TRUST; GOVERNMENT; TURNOUT; ISSUES; CONSEQUENCES; INSTITUTIONS; GEORGIA; VOTE", "note": "Copyright \u00a9 Southern Political Science Association 2008. Reprinted with permission. \n\nManuscript submitted 24 July 2006. Manuscript accepted for publication 12 August 2007. \n\nWe thank David Dutwin, Melissa Herrmann, and International Communications Research for assistance collecting the survey data reported in this article and Melissa Slemin for her assistance. We also thank the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation, the College of Social and Behavioral Science at the University of Utah, and the USC Annenberg Center for Communication for support of our data collection efforts and our research.\n\nPublished - ALVjp08.pdf
Accepted Version - ALVjp08preprint.pdf
Accepted Version - ALVjp08preprintappendix.pdf
", "abstract": "Building on the literature that investigates citizen and voter trust in government, we analyze the topic of voter confidence in the American electoral process. Our data comes from two national telephone surveys where voters were asked the confidence they have that their vote for president in the 2004 election was recorded as intended. We present preliminary evidence that suggests confidence in the electoral process affects voter turnout. We then examine voter responses to determine the overall level of voter confidence and analyze the characteristics that influence the likelihood a voter is confident that their ballot was recorded accurately. Our analyses indicate significant differences in the level of voter confidence along both racial and partisan lines. Finally, we find voter familiarity with the electoral process, opinions about the electoral process in other voting precincts, and both general opinions about voting technology and the specific technology the voter uses significantly affect the level of voter confidence.", "date": "2000-07", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Journal of Politics", "volume": "70", "number": "3", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "754-766", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:ALVjop08", "issn": "0022-3816", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:ALVjop08", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "Carnegie Corporation of New York" }, { "agency": "John S. and James L. Knight Foundation" }, { "agency": "College of Social and Behavioral Science. University of Utah" }, { "agency": "Annenberg Center for Communication, University of Southern California" } ] }, "doi": "10.1017/S0022381608080730", "primary_object": { "basename": "ALVjp08.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/8rt9b-j3v42/files/ALVjp08.pdf" }, "related_objects": [ { "basename": "ALVjp08preprint.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/8rt9b-j3v42/files/ALVjp08preprint.pdf" }, { "basename": "ALVjp08preprintappendix.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/8rt9b-j3v42/files/ALVjp08preprintappendix.pdf" } ], "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2000", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Hall, Thad E.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/2vd86-f2t93", "eprint_id": 80725, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 05:52:17", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 17:06:59", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } }, { "id": "Willette-J-R", "name": { "family": "Willette", "given": "Jennifer R." } } ] }, "title": "Measuring the relative impact of issues and the economy in democratic elections", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd.\n\nAvailable online 7 February 2000.\n\nPrepared for presentation at the 1998 Conference on Economics and Elections in Denmark. We thank\nparticipants at that conference, and Langche Zeng for helpful comments. Alvarez's work was supported by the National Science Foundation through SBR-9709327; Nagler's work was supported by the National Science Foundation through SBR-9413939 and SBR-9709214; and facilitated by his time in residence at the Center for Basic Research in Social Science at Harvard University.", "abstract": "It is generally accepted that issues and economic outcomes influence elections. In this paper we analyze the relative importance of issues and the economy in Canadian elections. We estimate a model of the 1988 and 1993 Canadian elections in which we include voter evaluations of the parties on a variety of issues, and voter evaluations of the national economy and their personal finances. We demonstrate that it is possible to compare the effects of issues and the economy on election outcomes. And we put this in the context of the impact of issues and elections in several other democracies. We show that even in elections where other factors are dominant, we can still see the impact of economic voting. And we argue that given the tenuous connection between the actions of elected officials and macroeconomic outcomes, this suggests that voters may be giving elected officials undue leeway in their non-economic policy-making functions.", "date": "2000-06", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Electoral Studies", "volume": "19", "number": "2-3", "publisher": "Elsevier", "pagerange": "237-253", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170823-070002328", "issn": "0261-3794", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170823-070002328", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709327" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9413939" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709214" } ] }, "collection": "CaltechAUTHORS", "doi": "10.1016/S0261-3794(99)00050-5", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2000", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Nagler, Jonathan; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/559kv-d7a70", "eprint_id": 80725, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 05:52:14", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 17:07:01", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } }, { "id": "Willette-J-R", "name": { "family": "Willette", "given": "Jennifer R." } } ] }, "title": "Measuring the relative impact of issues and the economy in democratic elections", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd.\n\nAvailable online 7 February 2000.\n\nPrepared for presentation at the 1998 Conference on Economics and Elections in Denmark. We thank\nparticipants at that conference, and Langche Zeng for helpful comments. Alvarez's work was supported by the National Science Foundation through SBR-9709327; Nagler's work was supported by the National Science Foundation through SBR-9413939 and SBR-9709214; and facilitated by his time in residence at the Center for Basic Research in Social Science at Harvard University.", "abstract": "It is generally accepted that issues and economic outcomes influence elections. In this paper we analyze the relative importance of issues and the economy in Canadian elections. We estimate a model of the 1988 and 1993 Canadian elections in which we include voter evaluations of the parties on a variety of issues, and voter evaluations of the national economy and their personal finances. We demonstrate that it is possible to compare the effects of issues and the economy on election outcomes. And we put this in the context of the impact of issues and elections in several other democracies. We show that even in elections where other factors are dominant, we can still see the impact of economic voting. And we argue that given the tenuous connection between the actions of elected officials and macroeconomic outcomes, this suggests that voters may be giving elected officials undue leeway in their non-economic policy-making functions.", "date": "2000-06", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Electoral Studies", "volume": "19", "number": "2-3", "publisher": "Elsevier", "pagerange": "237-253", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170823-070002328", "issn": "0261-3794", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170823-070002328", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709327" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9413939" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709214" } ] }, "collection": "CaltechAUTHORS", "doi": "10.1016/S0261-3794(99)00050-5", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2000", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Nagler, Jonathan; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/cscnb-7qj52", "eprint_id": 80785, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 05:27:48", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 15:06:07", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } }, { "id": "Bowler-S", "name": { "family": "Bowler", "given": "Shaun" } } ] }, "title": "Issues, Economics, and the Dynamics of Multiparty Elections: The British 1987 General Election", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2000 American Political Science Association.\n\nPortions of this research were presented at the annual meetings of the American Political Science Association in 1994 and 1995; the annual meetings of the Midwest Political Science Association in 1994 and 1995; the Political Methodology Summer Conference in 1995; and the 1995 Southern California Political Economy Meetings. We thank Nathaniel Beck, John Curtice, Geoff Garrett, John Jackson, Jonathan Katz, Gary King, Jan Leighley, Harvey Palmer, Doug Rivers, Guy Whitten, and participants in seminars at Harvard University and the University of Iowa for comments on previous versions of this work. Nagler thanks the NSF for grants SBR-9413939 and SBR-9709214 and the Center for Basic Research in the Social Sciences at Harvard University for research support; Alvarez thanks the NSF for grant SBR-9709327. Statistical analyses presented here were carried out with Gauss Version 3.2.43 and GaussX Version 3.6.", "abstract": "We offer a model of multiparty elections that combines voters' retrospective economic evaluations with consideration of parties' issue positions and the issue preferences of voters. We show that both policy issues and the state of the economy matter in British elections. In 1987 voters made a largely retrospective evaluation of the Conservatives based on economic performance; those who rejected the Conservative Party chose between Labour and Alliance based on issue positions. Through simulations we move the parties in the issue space and reestimate vote shares as well as hypothesize an alternative distribution of views on the economy, and we show that Labour had virtually no chance to win with a centrist party as a viable alternative. The predictions from our 1987 simulations are supported in an analysis of the 1992 British election. We argue for multinomial probit in studying three-party elections because it allows for a richer formulation of politics than do competing methods.", "date": "2000-03", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Political Science Review", "volume": "94", "number": "01", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "131-149", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170825-080423992", "issn": "0003-0554", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170825-080423992", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9413939" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709214" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709327" } ] }, "doi": "10.2307/2586385", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2000", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Nagler, Jonathan; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/3tf1e-7re15", "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 05:27:44", "lastmod": "2023-08-19 05:27:44", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" } }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } }, { "id": "Bowler-S", "name": { "family": "Bowler", "given": "Shaun" } } ] }, "title": "Issues, Economics, and the Dynamics of Multiparty Elections: The British 1987 General Election", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2000 American Political Science Association.\n\nPortions of this research were presented at the annual meetings of the American Political Science Association in 1994 and 1995; the annual meetings of the Midwest Political Science Association in 1994 and 1995; the Political Methodology Summer Conference in 1995; and the 1995 Southern California Political Economy Meetings. We thank Nathaniel Beck, John Curtice, Geoff Garrett, John Jackson, Jonathan Katz, Gary King, Jan Leighley, Harvey Palmer, Doug Rivers, Guy Whitten, and participants in seminars at Harvard University and the University of Iowa for comments on previous versions of this work. Nagler thanks the NSF for grants SBR-9413939 and SBR-9709214 and the Center for Basic Research in the Social Sciences at Harvard University for research support; Alvarez thanks the NSF for grant SBR-9709327. Statistical analyses presented here were carried out with Gauss Version 3.2.43 and GaussX Version 3.6.\n\nThe files for this record are restricted to users on the Caltech campus network:", "abstract": "We offer a model of multiparty elections that combines voters' retrospective economic evaluations with consideration of parties' issue positions and the issue preferences of voters. We show that both policy issues and the state of the economy matter in British elections. In 1987 voters made a largely retrospective evaluation of the Conservatives based on economic performance; those who rejected the Conservative Party chose between Labour and Alliance based on issue positions. Through simulations we move the parties in the issue space and reestimate vote shares as well as hypothesize an alternative distribution of views on the economy, and we show that Labour had virtually no chance to win with a centrist party as a viable alternative. The predictions from our 1987 simulations are supported in an analysis of the 1992 British election. We argue for multinomial probit in studying three-party elections because it allows for a richer formulation of politics than do competing methods.", "date": "2000-03", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Political Science Review", "volume": "94", "number": "01", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "131-149", "issn": "0003-0554", "official_url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/3tf1e-7re15", "rights": "\u00a9 2000 American Political Science Association.\n\nPortions of this research were presented at the annual meetings of the American Political Science Association in 1994 and 1995; the annual meetings of the Midwest Political Science Association in 1994 and 1995; the Political Methodology Summer Conference in 1995; and the 1995 Southern California Political Economy Meetings. We thank Nathaniel Beck, John Curtice, Geoff Garrett, John Jackson, Jonathan Katz, Gary King, Jan Leighley, Harvey Palmer, Doug Rivers, Guy Whitten, and participants in seminars at Harvard University and the University of Iowa for comments on previous versions of this work. Nagler thanks the NSF for grants SBR-9413939 and SBR-9709214 and the Center for Basic Research in the Social Sciences at Harvard University for research support; Alvarez thanks the NSF for grant SBR-9709327. Statistical analyses presented here were carried out with Gauss Version 3.2.43 and GaussX Version 3.6.\n", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9413939" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709214" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709327" } ] }, "collection": "CaltechAUTHORS", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2000", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael; Nagler, Jonathan; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/q8r03-x6432", "eprint_id": 80605, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 05:27:37", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 15:06:05", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Butterfield-T-L", "name": { "family": "Butterfield", "given": "Tara L." } } ] }, "title": "The Resurgence of Nativism in California? The Case of Proposition 187 and Illegal Immigration", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Voting, Opposition to immigration, Illegal immigration, Political candidates, Economic conditions, Hispanics, Political ideologies, Financial economics, Social sciences, Political campaigns", "note": "\u00a9 2000 University of Texas Press. \n\nWe thank Garrett Glasgow, Carol Pierannanzi, and Fang Wang for their helpful discussions and Gail Nash for her assistance. The John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation provided support for this research through a Faculty Fellowship to Alvarez. An earlier version of this work was presented at the Southern Political Science Association Annual Meeting, November 1996.", "abstract": "Objective. We propose a new explanation for the appeal of Proposition 187 to California voters during the 1994 election and offer a new approach to studying the political context in which it gained voter approval. We argue that support for this proposition was an example of cyclical nativism, which was provoked primarily by California's economic downturn during the early 1990s. We also argue that the issue of illegal immigration was politicized during the election by the gubernatorial and senatorial candidates and that this endogeneity must be considered in any analysis of voter support for this proposition. Methods. To test this theory, we develop hypotheses about how nativist attitudes might be reflected in the voting behavior of specific groups based on economic perceptions, race, education, and area of residence. We test these hypotheses using Voter News Service (VNS) exitpoll data from the 1994 California election. We formulate a two-stage probit model to allow for the endogeneity. Results. We find support for our nativist theory and our endogeneity argument in the data. Voters who perceived the economy as poor, perceived themselves as threatened financially by illegal immigrants, or who lived closer to the immigrant source were more likely to support the measure. We also find that voters were relying on candidate endorsements, rather than on party identification or political ideology, in making their vote choice. Conclusions. These findings cause us to conclude, specifically, that nativism, fueled by economic conditions, was a salient factor leading many Californians to support Proposition 187 and, generally, that it is necessary to consider the effects of candidate endorsements on proposition voting.", "date": "2000-03", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Social Science Quarterly", "volume": "81", "number": "1", "publisher": "Wiley", "pagerange": "167-179", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170818-091734517", "issn": "0038-4941", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170818-091734517", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation" } ] }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2000", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Butterfield, Tara L." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/cqep1-v9g45", "eprint_id": 80783, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 05:15:50", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 18:28:43", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Glasgow-G", "name": { "family": "Glasgow", "given": "Garrett" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Uncertainty and Candidate Personality Traits", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2000 Sage Publications, Inc. \n\nFirst Published January 1, 2000. \n\nAuthors'Note: This article was prepared for presentation at the annual meetings of the Midwest Political Science Association; we thank John Brehm and Charles Franklin for their comments. An earlier version of this research was presented in January 1996 to the National Election Studies (NES) Board of Overseers and was titled \"Survey Measures of Uncertainty: A Report to the NES Board on the Use of 'Certainty' Questions to Measure Uncertainty About Candidate Traits and Issue Positions.\"", "abstract": "Due to the high level of uncertainty in the electorate about candidate issue positions, many scholars believe that voters instead use simpler cues such as personality traits to evaluate candidates. However, information about candidate personality traits is also subject to uncertainty. Using a new direct survey measure of uncertainty included in the 1995 and 1996 National Election Studies, we examine the effect of trait opinions on candidate evaluations and test the effect that uncertainty about those opinions has on the use of traits in an evaluation. We find that uncertainty about a candidate's personality traits reduces both the use of opinions about that candidate's traits in evaluations of that candidate and the overall evaluations of that candidate", "date": "2000-01-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Politics Quarterly", "volume": "28", "number": "1", "publisher": "Sage", "pagerange": "26-49", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170825-065515009", "issn": "0044-7803", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170825-065515009", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1177/1532673X00028001002", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2000", "author_list": "Glasgow, Garrett and Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/dzd16-5b729", "eprint_id": 83011, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 05:13:15", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 15:06:54", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "A New Approach for Modeling Strategic Voting in Multiparty Elections", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 2000 Cambridge University Press. Printed in the United Kingdom.\n\nThis is one of many papers by the authors on voting in multiparty elections; the ordering of names reflects alphabetic convention. Alvarez' s work was supported by the National Science Foundation through SBR-9709327; Nagler's work was supported by the National Science Foundation through SBR-9413939 and SBR-9709214. We thank Jonathan Katz and Guy Whitten for supplying helpful data for this project. We also thank Gary Cox, Jonathan Katz, Gary King and Burt Monroe for discussions of this subject. Last, we thank Shaun Bowler for his work with us on a related project. A previous version of this article was presented at the Annual Meetings of the Midwest Political Science Association, 1997; that paper was awarded the 1998 Robert H. Durr Award by the Midwest\nPolitical Science Association for the best paper applying quantitative analysis to a substantive problem in political science.\n\nFormerly SSWP 1023.\n\nPublished - sswp1023_-_published.pdf
", "abstract": "Whether citizens vote strategically, using their votes to defeat their least-preferred candidate, or vote sincerely, voting for their first choice among the alternatives, is a question of longstanding interest. We offer two innovations in searching for the answer to this question. First, we begin with a more consistent model of sincere voting in multiparty democratic systems than has been presented in the literature to date. Secondly, we incorporate a new operationalization of the objective potential for strategic behaviour. We offer a test of strategic voting in the 1987 British general election based on the variance in strategic setting across constituencies in Britain. We allow voters to use available information about the relative standings of parties in their constituency in deciding whether or not to cast a strategic vote. We estimate a lower level of strategic voting than many other methods have estimated. We also demonstrate that the use of self-reported vote motivation causes errors in estimating the amount of strategic voting, and that this problem is exacerbated the further from the election the self-report is obtained.", "date": "2000-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "British Journal of Political Science", "volume": "30", "number": "1", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "57-75", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20171106-162807834", "issn": "0007-1234", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20171106-162807834", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709327" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9413939" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709214" } ] }, "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1023_-_published.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/dzd16-5b729/files/sswp1023_-_published.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2000", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Nagler, Jonathan" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/19dd4-k0j48", "eprint_id": 80876, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 05:12:59", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 18:33:19", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "A New Approach for Modelling Strategic Voting in Multiparty Elections", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 2000 Cambridge University Press. \n\nPublished online: 01 January 2000. \n\nThis is one of many papers by the authors on voting in multiparty elections; the ordering of names reflects alphabetic convention. Alvarez's work was supported by the National Science Foundation through SBR-9709327; Nagler's work was supported by the National Science Foundation through SBR-9413939 and SBR-9709214. We thank Jonathan Katz and Guy Whitten for supplying helpful data for this project. We also thank Gary Cox, Jonathan Katz, Gary King and Burt Monroe for discussions of this subject. Last, we thank Shaun Bowler for his work with us on a related project. A previous version of this article was presented at the Annual Meetings of the Midwest Political Science Association, 1997; that paper was awarded the 1998 Robert H. Durr Award by the Midwest Political Science Association for the best paper applying quantitative analysis to a substantive problem in political science.", "abstract": "Whether citizens vote strategically, using their votes to defeat their least-preferred candidate, or vote sincerely, voting for their first choice among the alternatives, is a question of longstanding interest. We offer two innovations in searching for the answer to this question. First, we begin with a more consistent model of sincere voting in multiparty democratic systems than has been presented in the literature to date. Secondly, we incorporate a new operationalization of the objective potential for strategic behaviour. We offer a test of strategic voting in the 1987 British general election based on the variance in strategic setting across constituencies in Britain. We allow voters to use available information about the relative standings of parties in their constituency in deciding whether or not to cast a strategic vote. We estimate a lower level of strategic voting than many other methods have estimated. We also demonstrate that the use of self-reported vote motivation causes errors in estimating the amount of strategic voting, and that this problem is exacerbated the further from the election the self-report is obtained.", "date": "2000-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "British Journal of Political Science", "volume": "30", "number": "1", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "57-75", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170828-160126753", "issn": "0007-1234", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170828-160126753", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709327" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9413939" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709214" } ] }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "2000", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Nagler, Jonathan" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/jbv87-6yd85", "eprint_id": 80674, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 05:00:49", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 17:04:44", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Glasgow-G", "name": { "family": "Glasgow", "given": "Garrett" } } ] }, "title": "Two-Stage Estimation of Nonrecursive Choice Models", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 1999 by the Society for Political Methodology.", "abstract": "Questions of causation are important issues in empirical research on political behavior. Most of the discussion of the econometric problems associated with multiequation models with reciprocal causation has focused on models with continuous dependent variables (e.g., Markus and Converse 1979; Page and Jones 1979). Yet, many models of political behavior involve discrete or dichotomous dependent variables; this paper describes two techniques which can consistently estimate reciprocal relationships between dichotomous and continuous dependent variables. The first, two-stage probit least squares (2SPLS), is very similar to two-stage instrumental variable techniques. The second, two-stage conditional maximum likelihood (2SCML), may overcome problems associated with 2SPLS, but has not been used in the political science literature. We demonstrate the potential pitfalls of ignoring the problems of reciprocal causation in nonrecursive choice models and examine the properties of both techniques using Monte Carlo simulations: we find that 2SPLS slightly outperforms 2SCML in terms of bias but that 2SCML produces more accurate standard errors. However, the 2SCML model offers an explicit statistical test for endogeneity. The results from our simulations, and the statistical test for exogeneity, lead us to advocate the use of 2SCML for estimation of this class of causal models. We then apply both of these techniques to an empirical example focusing on the relationship between voter preferences in a presidential election and the voter's uncertainty about the policy positions taken by the candidates. This example demonstrates the importance of these techniques for political science research.", "date": "1999-12-16", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Analysis", "volume": "8", "number": "02", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "147-165", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170822-104349366", "issn": "1047-1987", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170822-104349366", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "collection": "CaltechAUTHORS", "doi": "10.1093/oxfordjournals.pan.a029810", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1999", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Glasgow, Garrett" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/s4ky5-3b284", "eprint_id": 83012, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 03:22:47", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 15:07:40", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "Economics, Entitlements, and Social Issues: Voter Choice in the 1996 Presidential Election", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Political candidates, Voting, Economics, Presidential elections, Financial economics, Applied economics, Economic impact analysis, Abortion, Social issues, Comparative economics", "note": "\u00a9 1998 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System.\n\nThis is one of many joint papers by the authors on multiparty elections; the ordering of their names reflects alphabetic convention. We thank Alan Abramowitz, Tara Butterfield, and Garrett Glasgow for their comments. A previous version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., August, 1997. This work was supported by National Science Foundation grants SBR-9709327 to Alvarez and SBR-9413939 and SBR-9709214 to Nagler.\n\nThe datasets and computer code used to produce the results reported here can be obtained from the ICPSR article replication archive or from http://www.hss.caltech.edu/-rma/research.html.\n\nFormerly SSWP 1021.\n\nPublished - sswp1021_-_published.pdf
", "abstract": "Theory: Contemporary theories of presidential election outcomes, especially the economic voting and spatial issue voting models, are used to examine voter choice in the 1996 presidential election.\n\nHypotheses: First, we look at the effects of voter perceptions of the national economy on voter support for Clinton. Second, we look at the effects of candidate and voter positions on ideology and on a number of issues. Last, we examine whether voters' views on other issues-social issues such as abortion as well as issues revolving around entitlements and taxation that were emphasized by the campaigns-played significant roles in\nthis election.\n\nMethods: We employ multinomial probit analysis of the 1996 National Election Studies data and simulations based on counterfactual scenarios which are based on different perceptions of macroeconomic conditions and issue platforms of candidates.\n\nResults: The effects of economic perceptions are much greater than the effects of voter issue positions on the election outcome. This behavior by voters leaves presidents substantial room to shirk on policy issues. But, some social issues, namely abortion, play a role in determining the election outcome. The presence of a third centrist candidate limited the ability of other candidates to improve their vote shares by moving in the issue space.", "date": "1998-10", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Journal of Political Science", "volume": "42", "number": "4", "publisher": "Midwest Political Science Association", "pagerange": "1349-1363", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20171106-163900072", "issn": "0092-5853", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20171106-163900072", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709327" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9413939" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709214" } ] }, "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp1021_-_published.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/s4ky5-3b284/files/sswp1021_-_published.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1998", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Nagler, Jonathan" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/k3xqj-zk813", "eprint_id": 83013, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 02:58:36", "lastmod": "2023-10-23 15:08:49", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Chaney-C-K", "name": { "family": "Chaney", "given": "Carole Kennedy" } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "Explaining the Gender Gap in U. S. Presidential Elections, 1980-1992", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 1998 University of Utah.\n\nReceived:August 19, 1996; Accepted: December 2, 1997.\n\nAn earlier version of this article was presented at the 1996 Midwest Political Science Association Meeting, Chicago, Illinois, April 1996. This work was supported by National Science Foundation grants SBR-9413939 and SBR-9709214 to Nagler and SBR-9709327 to Alvarez.\n\nFormerly SSWP 979.", "abstract": "This article compares the voting behavior of women and men in presidential elections since 1980. We test whether the different levels of salience which men and women attribute to different issues or the different preferences men and women have on issues best accounts for the gender gap. Utilizing theories of different issue emphasis between men and women, we use a multivariate model to demonstrate that a combination of respondent views on the economy, social programs, military action, abortion, and ideology can consistently explain at least three-fourths of the gender gap in the 1984, 1988, and 1992 elections. We show that, consistent with prior research on individual elections, women placed more emphasis on the national economy than men, and men placed more emphasis on pocketbook voting than women. We add evidence showing that women have consistently more negative assessments of the economy than do men, suggesting that a part of what has been considered a Re- publican-Democratic gender gap is really an anti-incumbent bias on the part of women. We also clarify the interpretation of partisan identification in explaining the gender gap.", "date": "1998-06", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Research Quarterly", "volume": "51", "number": "2", "publisher": "Sage Publications", "pagerange": "311-339", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20171106-164821881", "issn": "1065-9129", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20171106-164821881", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9413939" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709214" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9709327" } ] }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1998", "author_list": "Chaney, Carole Kennedy; Alvarez, R. Michael; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/35x80-nyt65", "eprint_id": 83035, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 02:20:55", "lastmod": "2023-10-20 23:28:58", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Nagler-J", "name": { "family": "Nagler", "given": "Jonathan" } } ] }, "title": "When Politics and Models Collide: Estimating Models of Multiparty Elections", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Binomials, Political parties, Spatial models, Economic models, Voting, Modeling, Parametric models, Conservatism, Statistical estimation", "note": "\u00a9 1998 Midwest Political Science Association. \n\nThis is one of many joint papers by the authors on multiparty elections, the ordering of their names reflects alphabetic convention. Earlier versions of this research were presented at the Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, September 1 995 and at the Annual Political Methodology Summer Conference, Indianapolis, July, 1995. We thank John Aldrich, Nathaniel Beck, Simon Jackman, John Jackson, Jonathan Katz, Gary King, Dean Lacy, Eric Lawrence, Jan Leighley, Will Moore, Mitch Sanders, and Guy Whitten for their comments on earlier versions of this research, and Methodology Conference participants for their input. We also thank participants of the Southern California Political Economy Group for their discussion of this research on November 17, 1995 at the University of California--Irvine, and participants in the Second CIC Interactive Video Methods Seminar which was broadcast from the University of Minnesota on October 25, 1996. Alvarez thanks the John M. Olin Foundation for support of his research. Nagler thanks the NSF for grant SBR-9413939.\n\nFormerly SSWP 959.\n\nPublished - sswp959_-_published.pdf
", "abstract": "Theory: The spatial model of elections can better be represented by using conditional logit models which consider the position of the parties in issue spaces than by multinomial logit models which only consider the position of voters in the issue space. The spatial model, and random utility models in general, suffer from a failure to adequately consider the substitutability of parties sharing similar or identical issue positions. Hypotheses: Multinomial logit is not necessarily better than successive applications of binomial logit. Conditional logit allows for considering more interesting political questions than does multinomial logit. The spatial model may not correspond to voter decision-making in multiple party settings. Multinomial probit allows for a relaxation of the IIA condition and this should improve estimates of the effect of adding or removing parties. Methods: Comparisons of binomial logit, multinomial logit, conditional logit, and multinomial probit on simulated data and survey data from multiparty elections. Results: Multinomial logit offers almost no benefits over binomial logit. Conditional logit is capable of examining movements by parties, whereas multinomial logit is not. Multinomial probit performs better than conditional logit when considering the effects of altering the set of choices available to voters. Estimation of multinomial probit with more than three choices is feasible.", "date": "1998-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Journal of Political Science", "volume": "42", "number": "1", "publisher": "Midwest Political Science Association", "pagerange": "56-96", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20171107-132938469", "issn": "0092-5853", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20171107-132938469", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "funders": { "items": [ { "agency": "John M. Olin Foundation" }, { "agency": "NSF", "grant_number": "SBR-9413939" } ] }, "collection": "CaltechAUTHORS", "primary_object": { "basename": "sswp959_-_published.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/35x80-nyt65/files/sswp959_-_published.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1998", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Nagler, Jonathan" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/mmnaz-tpp22", "eprint_id": 80651, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 02:06:43", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 16:59:30", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Saving-J-L", "name": { "family": "Saving", "given": "Jason L." } } ] }, "title": "Deficits, Democrats, and Distributive Benefits: Congressional Elections and the Pork Barrel in the 1980s", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 1997 Sage Publications. \n\nFirst Published December 1, 1997.", "abstract": "In this study, we examine the extent to which legislators receive elec toral benefits from altering the geographic distribution of federal outlays. Although there are both theoretical and anecdotal reasons to believe in the existence of such benefits, previous empirical work has largely failed to verify the connection between pork barreling and reelection. We ex amine House incumbents during the 1980s, when budget deficits were allegedly forcing legislators to end the acquisition of distributive benefits, and we discover that legislators did in fact reap electoral benefits from pork barreling in the 1980s. We further discover that there is a sharp partisan difference in the marginal effects of federal outlays: additional federal monies strongly affect Democratic reelection margins but barely impact the electoral fortunes of Republicans. This conclusion has impor tant implications for current debates about Congress, divided govern ment, and the recent Republican takeover of Congress.", "date": "1997-12-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Research Quarterly", "volume": "50", "number": "4", "publisher": "Sage Publications", "pagerange": "809-831", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170821-145739714", "issn": "1065-9129", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170821-145739714", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "collection": "CaltechAUTHORS", "doi": "10.1177/106591299705000405", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1997", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Saving, Jason L." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/9903p-a1z90", "eprint_id": 80964, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 01:34:08", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 19:18:42", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Saving-J-L", "name": { "family": "Saving", "given": "Jason L." } } ] }, "title": "Congressional committees and the political economy of federal outlays", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 1997 Kluwer Academic Publishers. \n\nAccepted 14 February 1995. \n\nWe thank Kenneth Bickers and Robert Stein for access to their \"U.S. Domestic Assistance Programs Database,\" and for their assistance with the data. We also thank Joseph Cooper, John Ferejohn, and Gretchen Kalsow for their comments, and Abby Delman for her assistance.", "abstract": "The literature on the organization of the United States Congress has been dominated by \"distributive\" and \"informational\" theory. One important source of disagreement between these two theories is their characterization of whether individual legislators can engage in pork-barrel activities. Here we provide evidence which indicates that the pork-barrel is alive and well in the contemporary United States Congress. We focus on whether members of power and constituency committees can direct disproportionate federal expenditures to their districts. Finding strong and systematic evidence of pork-barrel activities by committee members provides empirical support for distributive theories of legislative organization.", "date": "1997-07", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Public Choice", "volume": "92", "number": "1/2", "publisher": "Springer", "pagerange": "55-73", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170830-131803979", "issn": "0048-5829", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170830-131803979", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1023/A:1017998621210", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1997", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Saving, Jason L." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/4a21f-xzs55", "eprint_id": 83018, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 01:13:13", "lastmod": "2023-10-20 23:27:07", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Brehm-J", "name": { "family": "Brehm", "given": "John" } } ] }, "title": "Are Americans Ambivalent Towards Racial Policies?", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "keywords": "Racism, Racial policies, Statistical variance, Stereotypes, Egalitarianism, Individualism, Authoritarianism, Antisemitism, Statistical models, Taxes", "note": "\u00a9 1997 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System. \n\nManuscript submitted 18 July 1995. Final manuscript received 14 November 1995. \n\nAn earlier version of this paper was presented at the 53rd Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, April 6-8, 1995, Chicago, IL. We appreciate the comments of Morgan Kousser, Lynn Sanders, Paul Sniderman, Laura Stoker, and the Duke-UNC Political Psychology Group. We thank Paul Sniderman, Philip E. Tetlock, and Thomas Piazza for use of their 1991 Race and Politics Survey. Alvarez thanks the John M. Olin Foundation for support of his research. Editor's note: The paper received the John Sprague Award from the Midwest Political Science Association in 1996.", "abstract": "Theory: The variability in individual respondent's considerations over racial policy may be due to uncertainty or to ambivalence. Ambivalence is distinct from uncertainty in that it stems from incommensurable choices, and cannot be altered with additional information. Methods: Using a heteroskedastic probit technique, we consider six separate core beliefs potentially relevant towards racial policy choice (modem racism, antiblack stereotyping, authoritarianism, individualism, and anti-Semitism) for four different policy choices. We evaluate two separate models for the source of individual variance: conflicting values and direct effects of values. Results: Our analysis indicates that modem racism trumps rival explanatory variables in explanations of racial policy choice, and that variability in attitudes toward racial policy is due to uncertainty, and not to ambivalence.", "date": "1997-04", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Journal of Political Science", "volume": "41", "number": "2", "publisher": "Midwest Political Science Association", "pagerange": "345-374", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20171107-081529537", "issn": "0092-5853", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20171107-081529537", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "collection": "CaltechAUTHORS", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1997", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Brehm, John" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/v767n-d6q44", "eprint_id": 80891, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 04:40:18", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 18:34:10", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Aldrich-J-H", "name": { "family": "Aldrich", "given": "John H." } }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "Issues and the presidential primary voter", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 1994 Plenum Publishing Corporation. \n\nAn earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 1992.", "abstract": "Most agree that voting in presidential general elections is largely contingent on the evaluations of the candidates, issues, and parties. Yet inpresidential primary elections the determinants of voter choices are less clear. Partisanship is inconsequential, information about candidate personalities and policy positions is scarce, and a fourth factor, expectations, may influence voters. In this paper, we reconsider the influence ofpolitical issues in presidential primaries. We argue that past work has not adequately considered how issues matter in primary elections. Primaries are intraparty affairs, and the political issues that typically divide the parties are not very relevant in primaries. Instead, we focus on the policy issues each candidate chooses to emphasize in their quest for the nomination, which we call policy priorities. With data gathered about media coverage of the presidential contenders in the 1988 primaries, and using exit poll data from the 1988 Super Tuesday primaries, we show that issues, as policy priorities, do matter in presidential primary elections. This research also implies that primary campaigns matter, since information concerning the policy priorities of the candidates reaches the intended audience.", "date": "1994-09", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Political Behavior", "volume": "16", "number": "3", "publisher": "Springer", "pagerange": "289-317", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170829-085814214", "issn": "0190-9320", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170829-085814214", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1007/BF01498953", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1994", "author_list": "Aldrich, John H. and Alvarez, R. Michael" }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/jr9q8-hw318", "eprint_id": 81000, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 04:35:28", "lastmod": "2023-10-20 23:14:20", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Franklin-C-H", "name": { "family": "Franklin", "given": "Charles H." } } ] }, "title": "Uncertainty and Political Perceptions", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "keywords": "Senators, Taxes, Statistical models, Political science, Survey responses, Political candidates, Threshing, Expected values, Political elections, Political campaigns", "note": "\u00a9 1994 Published by The University of Chicago Press on behalf of the Southern Political Science Association. \n\nManuscript submitted 6 April 1993; Final manuscript received 17 December 1993. \n\nPrevious versions of this article were presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, September 1992, and the Ninth Political Methodology Conference, Harvard University, July 16-19, 1992. We thank Steve Ansolabehere, Stanley Feldman, Simon Jackman, and Robert Luskin for their comments. We also thank participants in seminar discussions at both the University of California-Riverside and the University of California-San Diego for their insights. We are especially indebted to the Letters and Science Survey Center of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, for support of our data collection.\n\nPublished - 2132187.pdf
", "abstract": "While the world of politics is uncertain, previous work, both theoretical and empirical, has largely failed to incorporate this uncertainty into the analysis of public opinion and electoral behavior. In this article we discuss measures designed to elicit the uncertainty survey respondents feel about their political perceptions. These measures exhibit response patterns which are interpretable, substantively interesting, and consistent with a model relating uncertainty to citizen information costs. We also find that variation in respondent uncertainty leads to different models of perception of political figures and speaks to models of the survey response. As a practical matter, our measures can easily be incorporated into existing surveys with no disruption of continuity.", "date": "1994-08", "date_type": "published", "publication": "Journal of Politics", "volume": "56", "number": "3", "publisher": "University of Chicago Press", "pagerange": "671-688", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20170830-160158477", "issn": "0022-3816", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170830-160158477", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "primary_object": { "basename": "2132187.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/jr9q8-hw318/files/2132187.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1994", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Franklin, Charles H." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/j4fy0-4nm32", "eprint_id": 44324, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 03:21:03", "lastmod": "2023-10-20 23:15:56", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Beck-N", "name": { "family": "Beck", "given": "Nathaniel" } }, { "id": "Katz-J-N", "name": { "family": "Katz", "given": "Jonathan N." }, "orcid": "0000-0002-5287-3503" }, { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Garrett-G", "name": { "family": "Garrett", "given": "Geoffrey" } }, { "id": "Lange-P", "name": { "family": "Lange", "given": "Peter" } } ] }, "title": "Government Partisanship, Labor Organization, and Macroeconomic Performance: A Corrigendum", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 1993 American Political Science Association.\n\nPublished - 2938825.pdf
", "abstract": "Alvarez, Garrett and Lange (1991) used cross-national data panel data on the Organization for Economic Coordination and Development nations to show that countries with left governments and encompassing labor movements enjoyed superior economic performance. Here we show that the standard errors reported in that article are incorrect. Reestimation of the model using ordinary least squares and robust standard errors upholds the major finding of Alvarez, Garrett and Lange, regarding the political and institutional causes of economic growth but leaves the findings for unemployment and inflation open to question. We show that the model used by Alvarez, Garrett and Lange, feasible generalized least squares, cannot produce standard errors when the number of countries analyzed exceeds the length of the time period under analysis. Also, we argue that ordinary least squares with robust standard errors is superior to feasible generalized least square for typical cross-national panel studies.", "date": "1993-12", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Political Science Review", "volume": "87", "number": "4", "publisher": "Cambridge University Press", "pagerange": "943-948", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20140314-120455643", "issn": "0003-0554", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20140314-120455643", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.2307/2938825", "primary_object": { "basename": "2938825.pdf", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/j4fy0-4nm32/files/2938825.pdf" }, "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1993", "author_list": "Beck, Nathaniel; Katz, Jonathan N.; et el." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/xrqe1-20c05", "eprint_id": 83069, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-20 03:11:57", "lastmod": "2023-10-17 22:53:46", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" }, { "id": "Franklin-C-H", "name": { "family": "Franklin", "given": "Charles H." } } ] }, "title": "Policy Moderation or conflicting expectations? Testing the intentional models of split-ticket voting", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "restricted", "note": "\u00a9 1993 Sage Publications. \n\nAn earlier version of this article was presented at the 1991 Midwest Political Science Association Annual Meeting, April 18-20, Chicago, Illinois. We thank John Aldrich, G. R. Boynton, David Canon, Morris Fiorina, Michael Krassa, Dean Lacy, Peter Lange, Brian Loynd, Philip Paolino, Patrick Sellers, and Rick Wilson for their helpful comments and Abby Delman for her assistance. \n\nFormerly SSWP 845.", "abstract": "In this article, the authors examine two models of the electoral origins of divided government. One model is the policy-moderation model, advocated originally by Fiorina. The other model (proposed by Jacobson) focuses on the different expectations voters have concerning the legislative and executive branches of government, as well as the different electoral contexts in which voters make decisions. Using individual-level survey data, the authors test various hypotheses derived from each model. The empirical results give little support to the policy-moderation model. However, the second model has strong empirical support. The authors conclude with a discussion of their results in relation to empirical and normative studies of divided control of government.", "date": "1993-10", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Politics Quarterly", "volume": "21", "number": "4", "publisher": "Sage", "pagerange": "410-438", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20171108-133551320", "issn": "0044-7803", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20171108-133551320", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1177/1532673X9302100402", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1993", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael and Franklin, Charles H." }, { "id": "https://authors.library.caltech.eduhttps://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/gwb84-7tv04", "eprint_id": 99662, "eprint_status": "archive", "datestamp": "2023-08-19 23:11:04", "lastmod": "2023-10-18 18:38:25", "type": "article", "metadata_visibility": "show", "creators": { "items": [ { "id": "Alvarez-R-M", "name": { "family": "Alvarez", "given": "R. Michael" }, "orcid": "0000-0002-8113-4451" } ] }, "title": "The Puzzle of Party Identification: Dimensionality of an Important Concept", "ispublished": "pub", "full_text_status": "public", "note": "\u00a9 1990 by SAGE Publications. \n\nFirst Published October 1, 1990.", "abstract": "The current unidimensional conceptualization of party identification contains many ambiguities. Most troubling, however, has been the debate over the dimensionality of this important concept. This article further examines the defects of the unidimensional conceptualization of party identification using the National Election Studies party thermometers. The results repeatedly demonstrate that the current conceptualization inadequately expresses individual affect toward the political parties and political independence. An alternative conceptualization is discussed that would eliminate the anomalies of the unidimensional concept.", "date": "1990-10-01", "date_type": "published", "publication": "American Politics Quarterly", "volume": "18", "number": "4", "publisher": "Sage", "pagerange": "476-491", "id_number": "CaltechAUTHORS:20191105-092424412", "issn": "0044-7803", "official_url": "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20191105-092424412", "rights": "No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.", "doi": "10.1177/1532673x9001800405", "resource_type": "article", "pub_year": "1990", "author_list": "Alvarez, R. Michael" } ]