@book {CaltechAUTHORS_https://authors.library.caltech.edu/id/eprint/50427,
    title ="Probabilities of Large Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Region, California",
    author = "Dieterich, James H. and Allen, Clarence R.",
    
    volume = "1053",
    
    
    month = "January",
    year = "1990",
    
    
    
    url = "https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20141015-153702500",
    note = "© 1990 USGS.\n\nThe Working Group thanks the many individuals who cooperated in preparation of this report.\nWe particularly wish to acknowledge the contributions of expertise and unpublished data from\nKarin Budding, Lynn Dietz, Timothy Hall, Brian Kilgore, James Lienkaemper, Michael Lisowski,\nMark Matthews, David Oppenheimer, Carol Prentice, William Prescott, Paul Reasenberg, James\nSavage, and Robert Simpson. The National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (chaired\nby Thomas McEvilly) and the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (chaired by\nJames Davis) reviewed the report and offered numerous useful suggestions. William Bakun and\nThomas Heaton provided additional detailed technical reviews. Helen Gibbons edited the report.\nThe efforts of Nancy Arp in preparing this report and in arranging the meetings of the Working\nGroup are especially appreciated.",
    revision_no = "12",
    abstract = "In 1987 a Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities was organized by the U.S. Geological\nSurvey at the recommendation of the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC). The\nmembership included representatives from private industry, academia, and the U.S. Geological Survey. The\nWorking Group computed long-term probabilities of earthquakes along the major faults of the San Andreas\nfault system on the basis of consensus interpretations of information then available. Faults considered by the\nWorking Group included the San Andreas fault proper, the San Jacinto and Imperial-faults of southern\nCalifornia, and the Hayward fault of northern California. The Working Group issued a final report of its\nfindings in 1988 (Working Group, 1988) that was reviewed and endorsed by NEPEC.\nAs a consequence of the magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake of October 17, 1989, a\nsecond Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities was organized under the auspices of NEPEC.\nIts charge was to review and, as necessary, revise the findings of the 1988 report on the probability of large\nearthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region. In particular, the Working Group was requested to examine the\nprobabilities of large earthquakes in the context of new interpretations or physical changes resulting from the\nLoma Prieta earthquake. In addition, it was to consider new information pertaining to the San Andreas and other\nfaults in the region obtained subsequent to the release of the 1988 report. Insofar as modified techniques and\nimproved data have been used in this study, the same approach might also, of course, modify the probabilities\nfor southern California. This reevaluation has, however, been specifically limited to the San Francisco Bay\nregion.\nThis report is intended to summarize the collective knowledge and judgments of a diverse group of\nearthquake scientists to assist in formulation of rational earthquake policies. A considerable body of information\nabout active faults in the San Francisco Bay region leads to the conclusion that major earthquakes are likely\nwithin the next tens of years. Several techniques can be used to compute probabilities of future earthquakes,\nalthough there are uncertainties about the validity of specific assumptions or models that must be made when\napplying these techniques. The body of this report describes the data and detailed assumptions that lead to\nspecific probabilities for different fault segments. Additional data and future advances in our understanding of\nearthquake physics may alter the way that these probabilities are estimated. Even though this uncertainty must\nbe acknowledged, we emphasize that the findings of this report are supported by other lines of argument and\nare consistent with our best understanding of the likelihood for the occurrence of earthquakes in the San\nFrancisco Bay region.",
}